The soap opera with the introduction of a ceiling on prices for Russian energy resources in Europe, as we move towards the finale, paradoxically becomes both more boring and entertaining.
Boring because of the predictability of the finale of this far from highly artistic work, badly written by the scriptwriters.
And entertaining for the most part only because I really want to understand how the performers are now going to get out of this bodyagi, dodging as much as possible.
Because the script, sorry, of course, is a script, but there is one misfortune: the extras, which are prescribed by the great Pushkin’s “people are silent”, may, in the end, apologize and cannot endure: no, they, of course, very intelligibly explained that a person can be patient for a while and even wash less often.
And in general, it is now very fashionable not only at home, but also at meetings of the Bundestag, judging by the information of Der Spiegel, to sit in sweaters, and even in down jackets.
But no one prepared them for the impending mass unemployment, because it would be too much even for the European authorities who have completely lost their conscience.
Which, according to the honest admission of the green head of the German Foreign Ministry Burbock, of course, is violet to the opinion of their own voters (interesting, by the way, we note in parentheses, the purely Anglo-Saxon practice of appointing Gauleiters from specially grown native elites, this must be remembered all the time when looking not only in Europe: about the same fate was prepared for us, and it is somehow quite naive not to understand).
But still not to that extent.
So they get out as best they can, although it turns out, we must pay tribute, this is rather unimportant for them.
However, as we have already noted, here the process itself is sometimes more entertaining than the result obtained.
Now let's try to explain.
At the time of this writing, the negotiations in the EU regarding the introduction of a price ceiling for Russian oil were again postponed due to disagreements between the participants.
Although this decision should have been made on November 24: how else, if the decision to introduce the ceiling itself has already been voted by everyone.
And it should be officially introduced exactly one week later, on Monday, December 5th.
And here such here are interesting "insurmountable differences".
Moreover, the reason for these disagreements is extremely simple: the diametrically opposed positions of some states.
Some, like Poland and the "Baltic tigers", are demanding that the Russian Federation be obliged to sell them oil for no more than $30 per barrel.
Others, such as Cyprus, Greece and Malta, on the contrary, believe that the $65 per barrel proposed by the European Commission is too little: people can be understood, they have a “burning” oil transportation market and their own tanker fleet.
In short, there is a lot of noise.
But only on the informational, alas, fronts: real markets and real players are now somewhat not up to these nothing, in fact, not decisive European Union talkers.
How and why this is happening in the world, by the way, was quite clearly demonstrated quite recently by Qatar, in the midst of pressure on it “on the LGBT agenda” against the backdrop of the World Cup that began in this Arab country, demonstratively signing a long-term and very impressive contract on LNG supply is by no means to Europe.
On the other hand, China.
Well, with us here and even easier.
Both Russian President Vladimir Putin and the relevant "energy" Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak have previously repeatedly and quite officially warned that Russia simply will not supply energy resources to those countries that will limit prices for them.
Attention: no matter how beautiful the Western “stretch ceiling” may be (in the gas markets, for example, it is so funny that, they say, there was a real hysteria in Gazprom: there, even over the “switch to spot prices in the EU markets" did not laugh).
Furthermore.
Judging by the information of the ubiquitous, to put it mildly, American Bloomberg, the administration of the President of the Russian Federation is allegedly preparing a decree right now that prohibits Russian companies and traders who buy Russian oil from selling it to countries and companies that have introduced this very price ceiling.
Moreover, judging by the information of the American agency, we quote: this decree will directly prohibit "any mention of the marginal price in contracts for Russian oil or oil products."
Also, the Russian authorities are likely to officially ban the shipment of oil and petroleum products to any country that maintains a price ceiling.
So, dear (actually not really) European politicians, you can choose at least the “hard Polish-Baltic” option at $30 per barrel, at least the “Central European” at $65, at least the “Russophile” Greek-Maltese at $70-75 per barrel.
Basically, we don't care.
And for you, the result will be about the same.
And this is the whole problem, that these guys still cannot really understand what is happening.
No, it is clear what, in general, the calculation of European officials initially relied on: the so-called various “Russian market participants”.
Which, excuse me, is the “ceiling of prices with European-style repairs”, that our own Ministry of Finance with “withdrawal of excess profits”.
Purely in terms of the size of the withdrawal, the enterprise, in principle, does not care.
And we can state with almost complete certainty that if the foundations of our oil industry were still controlled by “conditional effective managers” and other Khodorkovskys, they, in general, could even succeed.
Especially if we take into account the affiliation of our individual "oil barons" specifically to Western, mostly European markets: tell me where your estate is, there your fatherland will be.
As it was once written in an ancient, but no less relevant book, the wisdom of which in the modern world is somehow not customary to notice.
However, the trends have somewhat changed.
And the smarter oil barons were forced to retrain as oil generals.
Or gradually leave the markets in different ways.
But those who remain, for obvious reasons, "a room with a European-style renovation and a stretch ceiling" in a slowly falling apart European communal apartment are interested, let's say, a little less than the demand expected in the market.
Nothing, in general, surprising.
What is more surprising here is something else: if such a development of events (with the refusal of the Russians to supply oil outside of market mechanisms) is quite pragmatically foreseen even in the American Bloomberg, which is extremely difficult to suspect of pro-Russian sympathies, then what are these bright people discussing in their European structures?
And then somehow there is a lot of noise, and with a predictable result.
And actually nothing.
But seriously, this building, which is deteriorating before our eyes, is unlikely to be helped by any cosmetic, even if three times European repair.
Even with a stretch ceiling.
Here, as the well-known Soviet joke about plumbing said, “replacing the gasket will not help, here the system needs to be changed.”
But modern European politicians, even in Brussels, even in Berlin, even in Athens and Warsaw, just cannot go for this, as they say, a priori.
Because for this you need at least to show political will and get out of this shameful virtual reality with a European-style renovation.
As they try to do, for example, in Ankara and Budapest.
And even if they are not doing well yet, but, as R.T.
Erdogan, at least there are no problems with light, heat and other things necessary for everyday life in Turkey this winter.
Which, of course, is still an intermediate, but already quite an indicative result.
The point of view of the author may not coincide with the position of the editors.