After a scorching October, the weather could return to some form of normality this
winter.
Météo-France unveiled its forecasts for the raclette season on October 27.
The meteorological organization is counting on a winter “in line with seasonal norms”.
However, the analysis is uncertain: Météo-France specifies that there is only a one in two chance that winter will give us classic temperatures.
“The most likely scenario for the November - December 2022 - January 2023 quarter is the predominance of anticyclonic conditions, with calm and dry weather, on the European continent.
Disturbances will tend to be thrown further north in Europe or south-west of the Mediterranean,” notes the meteorological institute.
More chance of a hot summer than a cold summer
The year 2022 has been particularly hot.
October 2022 was the hottest October in France since meteorological measurements began in 1945, with an average temperature of 17.2°C, 3.5°C above normal.
The meteorological organization noted nine consecutive months with a “positive anomaly”, that is to say temperatures above average.
And this winter could also turn out to be milder than normal.
Higher temperatures than usual have a 30% chance of occurring compared to 20% for lower temperatures.
Europe is worried about the arrival of a cold winter.
If the thermometer dips, the heating and, therefore, gas requirements may skyrocket.
However, energy prices have exploded since the start of the war in Ukraine and the government has been warning for several months about the risk of power cuts if the system is overstretched.
Little precipitation information
The historic drought affecting the country continues to rage and is even worsening in the South, alerted Météo-France last Friday.
However, according to its forecasts, the months of November, December and January should be drier than normal in the north-east of France but wetter in the western Mediterranean.
On the rest of France, “no scenario emerges”, writes Météo-France in its report.
“This bulletin does not provide detailed forecasts of weather conditions for the next few months day by day or even week by week.
It only tries to determine the trends expected on average over the quarter, ”says the forecasting institute, however.
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Meteo France
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Winter