One of the questions raised by the transition to the electric car is that of lithium, a key metal in the operation of batteries and whose demand is exploding today, to the point that the Boston Consulting Group fears possible shortages from 2030. .
However, among the so-called strategic metals for the energy transition, lithium is one of the least critical.
The reserves are significant, including in Europe.
But mining projects are often confronted with local disputes.
But these oppositions can also be an asset in pushing lithium extraction projects to adopt the highest possible social and environmental standards.
This is the other challenge for lithium: to produce more, of course, but also more cleanly.
Like the new electric 4L unveiled by Renault (an SUV!), presented as one of the key attractions, the Mondial de l'auto, which is being held this week in Paris, further acknowledges the turn taken from the automotive industry to electric.
This transition is even faster than we could have imagined last year.
To the point of pushing the Boston Consulting Group (BCG) to review its projections.
“The 100% electric car with battery will be the best-selling type of light vehicle in the world in 2028, three years earlier than expected, now underlines the strategy consulting firm.
They will represent 59% of sales in 2035, and not 45% as previously estimated”.
“That says it all about the magnitude of the task facing the automotive industry.
It will have to transit to this new world in a very short time and by being immediately mature, ”points out Mikaël Le Mouëllic, associate director at BCG.
After semiconductors, a shortage of lithium?
This challenge applies to manufacturers, but also to all the parallel industries that supply it.
There have already been crises.
That in particular on semiconductors, still in progress.
In 2030, this shortage should be a distant memory, estimates the BCG.
But another could hit hard on this date: that of lithium.
Metal is another key element of an electric car, its battery more precisely.
"In terms of storage capacity and yield, lithium batteries are the most efficient solution on the market, and probably for a long time to come," says Emmanuel Hache, economist specializing in raw materials at IFP Energies nouvelles (IFPEN). .
And it's not just true for our cars.
“Lithium is a key element in any device that needs to store energy, from smartphones to laptops,” recalls Cécilia Mattéa, in charge of the “clean vehicles” dossier at the NGO Transport & Environment (T & E ).
“But it is the automotive industry that is causing demand to explode, all the more strongly as the transition to electric is taking place at a faster pace than expected”, continues Mikaël Le Mouëllic.
So much so that the lithium could run out very quickly.
In 2030, supply should be around 4% lower than expected demand, and 24% by 2035, anticipates the BCG, which could slow down the energy transition.
Not the most critical of strategic metals… except in the short term?
However, lithium is not the most critical of the so-called “rare” or strategic metals, as it is present in small quantities and/or poorly distributed on Earth.
“You have reserves in the United States, in Latin America, in what is called the lithium triangle – Chile-Bolivia-Argentina –, in Zimbabwe, in Australia (the world's largest producer), in China, in Europe…” , list Emmanuel Hache, not so worried that we could run out of lithium “by 2050”.
The risk of a shortage is much greater by 2030. Emmanuel Hache and Mikaël Le Mouëllic explain it by a lack of investment in new production chains over the past ten years.
“Once again, few people had anticipated this rapid development of the electric vehicle, and there was this risk of investing heavily in a technology that could have been quickly outdated,” recalls the associate director of BCG.
Result: “Five companies share 90% of the market,” continues the IFPEN economist.
Two Chinese, two Americans and a Chilean.
Not only does their production run the risk of no longer being sufficient very quickly, but this concentration in the hands of a few players also puts the automobile industry in an uncomfortable situation of dependence.
Ways to reduce the impacts of lithium extraction…
There is a real challenge in developing new sustainable and geostrategic lithium sectors – from extraction to refining – where there are none to date, believes Mikaël Le Mouëllic at the time.
Including in Europe?
In recent years, several lithium deposit projects have faced strong local opposition.
From the region of Loznica, in Serbia, to Tréguenncec, in southern Finistère, via Barroso, in northern Portugal or the Estramadure region in Spain.
From this problem of social acceptability in Europe, it is possible to turn it into an advantage, Cécilia Mattéa slips in… By pushing mining companies to adopt the best possible social and environmental standards.
The "clean vehicles" manager of T & E takes the example of the company Infinity Lithium in Estramadura which, in the face of local disputes, "revised its copy, moving from an open-pit mine project to a underground, which already reduces its footprint and its impact on biodiversity.
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In any case, this is another key issue with lithium: getting it out as cleanly as possible.
The margins of progress are significant.
For the extraction of lithium from brines pumped in salt lakes, as is the case in South America, Cécilia Mattéa evokes the "DLE" for "direct lithium extraction".
"This technique, currently under development, makes it possible to significantly improve the rate of lithium recovery per volume of water treated, i.e. to produce more using less water, [rare resource in the region]", illustrates-t -she.
Less tension on geothermal lithium?
Another interesting lead: geothermal lithium.
Geothermal power plants produce heat by converting the water contained in underground aquifers into steam.
The idea is to take advantage of this water brought up from the depths to recover the lithium, before reinjecting it into the ground.
A way to kill two birds with one stone and at a lower environmental cost.
"And the problem of social acceptability arises less, since the geothermal power plant already exists", notes in passing Emmanuel Hache.
The proof: pilot geothermal lithium production units have already emerged in Europe, particularly in Alsace, with the French mining group Eramet.
This geothermal lithium should only meet a few percent of the lithium demand.
"It doesn't matter, it's already a way of making us Europeans aware of the richness of our subsoil and that we will probably have to (re) exploit it, certainly as cleanly as possible", considers Emmanuel Hache who makes it one of the key challenges of the energy transition.
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What about recycling then?
It is an essential element of the lithium equation that Mikaël Le Mouëllic, Emmanuel Hace and Cécilia Mattéa should not neglect.
This is perhaps even the first challenge for the latter: to develop a real battery recycling sector in the European Union.
"Recycling plants already exist, but we must ensure that they recycle precisely at the highest possible level, up to recovering 90% of the lithium in the batteries", illustrates Cécilia Mattéa.
The problem is that this recycling sector will not be able to operate at full power right away.
"The lifespan of a battery is eight to ten years, so the first large volumes of batteries to be recycled will not arrive before the end of the 2020s", explains Mikaël Le Mouëllic.
But not everything depends on the batteries of our cars.
“For many, we keep electronic devices out of order in our drawers, recalls Cécilia Mattéa.
They too often contain lithium, cobalt and other strategic metals that it would be in our interest to recycle.
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