We asked former Admiral Yoji Koda, who served as commander of the Japan Maritime Self-Defense Force, about North Korea's missile launch.

What are the highlights of this missile?

It is the flight distance.



Since it is 4,000 km, unlike the ones that North Korea has recently launched in large numbers, it was a long-range ballistic missile.



It is said that it has been sufficiently demonstrated that it can reach Guam, so there is no announcement yet, but I think it can be assumed that it will be an IRBM (intermediate-range ballistic missile) called Mars-12, or something similar.

What's the difference?

The Hwasong-12, which passed over the Japanese archipelago in September 2017, said that North Korea would reach Guam, but the flight distance was not enough to reach Guam.



As a military expert in the world, if the allocation of fuel and warhead weight is done well, it can reach Guam.



It flew 4,000 kilometers this time, so I can't say for certain that it's the Mars 12, but it flew a solid 4,000 kilometers, which it hadn't been able to reach 4,000 kilometers until now. I think it can be seen as showing that we are making progress.



Without a doubt, I think that the so-called 4000-kilometer-class ballistic flight was demonstrated.

What is the evaluation of the flying distance this time?

Assuming that 4,000 kg is a fact, it means that a relatively heavy warhead can be loaded.

Use less fuel.



Assuming the island of Guam, even a little over 4,000 kilometers from North Korea would be enough to reach the island, so without worrying too much about fuel, it would be possible to load a solid warhead, and perhaps even nuclear weapons. there is



We have to think like that.

Are your technical skills improving?

The last time I launched two missiles five years ago, I thought I would fly 4,000 kilometers the second time, but it didn't.



At that time, North Korea probably wanted to fly 4,000 kilometers and be proud of it to the world, but for some reason it didn't reach.



I'm in the United States now, and an American expert told me openly that anything less than 4,000 kilograms is not a force.



This time, 4,000 km east of Aomori Prefecture, considering the 1,300 km of the Sea of ​​Japan, exceeds 5,000 km, 5,500 km or so, and that is IRBM.



Whether it is a new model or an improved version of the Hwasong-12, I think we need more information in the future, but one point is that the Hwasong-12 is a very stable missile in North Korea.



It's a stable ballistic missile, so there's no need to judge it, but it's one of those series, or if you improve it, and you can load enough nuclear warheads without reducing fuel too much. If the announced figures are true, it means that it is necessary to make assumptions to that extent.

What is the future of North Korea?

The remaining homework in North Korea is that ICBMs = intercontinental ballistic missiles are only shot on lofted trajectories.



When I asked an expert friend of mine in the United States, the lofted trajectory is completely different from the actual trajectory. It is generally said that it is necessary to fly 10,000 kilometers.



Next, it is possible that the latest model, the Mars 17 type, will shoot at over 10,000 km. Or maybe we need to prepare.