What do Belgrade, Budapest and Vienna have in common?
All three capitals stand on the Danube, the great European river that linked the once patchwork quilt of the Austro-Hungarian Empire.
The ghost of Austria-Hungary, seemingly long gone, hovered over Budapest's Warkert Palace, where Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic, Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban and Austrian Federal Chancellor Karl Nehammer met on Monday.
The first violin in this "Danubian trio" was clearly played by the Hungarian leader.
And not only because he represented the "receiving party": Orban's authority and influence were added by his firm political position, and, which is especially important in these harsh times, good relations with Moscow.
"Winter Is Coming!"
is the motto of House Stark from George R. R. R. Martin's epic A Song of Ice and Fire.
At the meeting in Budapest, Ned Stark was apparently cosplayed by Alexander Vucic.
“This winter will not be easy,” he said at a press conference.
“I’m not optimistic, I think next winter will be even harder.”
Vucic is unlikely to be wrong in his predictions.
The EU's refusal to import Russian gas, a sharp rise in energy prices, sabotage on the SP-1 and SP-2 pipelines - all this portends a difficult and cold winter for the Balkan region.
And Serbia, as Vučić never gets tired of emphasizing, is a poor country, its economic situation cannot be compared with the leading states of the West.
And the main problem is not even that in the coming winter people will have nothing to heat their homes with, but what will happen to businesses that the state is unable to help.
“People don’t feel the crisis the way we do in the state apparatus,” Vučić said.
“The situation is terrible.
We are spending all the money - everything that we have accumulated over the previous ten years ... Shopping centers in our region will close because people will not be able to pay their electricity bills ... We cannot compete with the Germans and the French,
And here all the hope is only on friends and neighbors, first of all - on Budapest.
Hungarian Prime Minister Orban did not disappoint his Serbian friend: the country's gas reserves will last for five to six months, he said, and Budapest is ready to help Belgrade with energy during this time in gratitude for the transit of Russian gas.
Hungary can afford it: back in the summer, it accumulated 141% of its winter gas consumption rate, and at the end of August, Budapest signed an agreement with Gazprom to supply an additional 5.8 million cubic meters of gas per day via South Stream.
It is clear that Hungary’s friendship with Russia was able to provide such a luxury: the country’s government consistently opposes anti-Russian sanctions (“We, Europe, energy dwarfs, impose sanctions against the energy giant – this is an absolutely extraordinary phenomenon!” Orban scoffed at the Brussels “wise men”) and maintains normal business relations with Moscow even in the midst of the Russophobic bacchanalia that has engulfed all of Europe.
In general, Hungary and Serbia are two Central European countries that seriously stand out from the pan-European trained system with their unwillingness to spoil relations with Russia.
And here it is difficult to say which of them is easier to defend against the onslaught of the Euro-Atlanticists.
Serbia is not a member of the EU, but it is constantly being blackmailed that if it stays on the side of Russia, it will never become such a member.
True, over time, the effectiveness of this trump card is declining: according to the latest polls, only 36.2% support joining the EU, against 43.6% (previously the ratio was reversed).
But Hungary is obliged to obey the decisions made in Brussels ... but boldly goes against them - and not only in matters of energy cooperation with Russia.
For years, Budapest has resisted the European Commission's "open door" migration policy, which Hungarians consider suicidal.
And it is not surprising that at the meeting in Budapest, the "Danube trio" actively discussed issues of migration policy.
“We all suffer from illegal migration,” Viktor Orban said bluntly.
The border guards of all three countries are waging a “heroic battle” with crowds of migrants rushing to Europe, but it is becoming increasingly difficult to withstand their pressure.
Especially because "in the international environment" migration is not given enough attention.
Meanwhile, it is through the Balkans that one of the main routes of refugees from disadvantaged countries of the Middle East and Central Asia runs.
According to the Hungarian prime minister, three things must be done: first, move the “defense line” further south, to the borders of North Macedonia.
Secondly, to deport all illegal immigrants "to where they came from."
And thirdly, it is necessary to create "access points" in the EU outside the borders of the EU itself.
It would be right, Orban stressed,
Aleksandar Vučić's last proposal was alarming.
Of course, he said, it is important to stand in solidarity with asylum-seekers with a difficult fate, but Serbia does not want such an “access point” to be located on its territory.
“We don’t want to become a migrant camp!”
he stressed.
You can understand Vučić: Serbia itself is not of particular interest to Syrians and Afghans who dream of wealthy Germany or France, but sloppy tent camps on the streets of Serbian border cities (and two years ago they could be seen in Belgrade) are a severe headache for border guards and police.
“Since 2015 I have been begging the EU for a clear position on migration!
the Serbian president complained.
“Nobody criticized us, but I didn’t hear a clear position either.”
But if in Brussels they prefer to turn a blind eye to the problem of migration flows, then in the person of the leaders of Hungary and Austria, Vučić found understanding allies.
“Everyone is interested in Serbia being able to protect its southern border as best as possible,” Viktor Orban said.
For this, in particular, a joint conference is being convened in the near future, at which concrete measures will be discussed to protect the southern border of Serbia (and this, I recall, is the partially recognized Republic of Kosovo and North Macedonia).
Brussels will be "informed" about the proposals developed at the conference.
“Hungary, Serbia and Austria are defending not only themselves, but also Europe,” Turkish Anadolu news agency quoted Orban as saying.
“The current defensive border of Europe is the Serbian-Hungarian one, and it is in the interests of all countries to push it further south.”
Supported by Serbia and the Federal Chancellor of Austria.
Recently, Vucic spoke with Nehammer on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly in New York - and, as the Austrian chancellor said after this meeting, one of the main topics was just illegal migration.
Austria is facing a surge in the number of asylum seekers from countries such as India and Tunisia arriving via the Balkan route, mainly via the Serbian border, as the Hungarian one is more or less "locked up" thanks to Orban's efforts.
For Austria, Serbia is “an important partner in the fight against illegal migration and human trafficking,” Nehammer stressed, adding that the asylum system in the EU urgently needs to be changed.
In other words, what do we see?
The three leaders of the Danubian countries are creating an informal group to solve the most pressing problems of the moment - providing energy and controlling migration flows.
These are precisely the problems that the EU cannot - and perhaps does not really want - to solve.
Only the lazy did not write about the fact that Brexit could trigger a domino effect.
But these predictions did not come true: neither France nor Italy is in a hurry to follow the example of Great Britain.
Instead, we see how blocs of countries are being formed within the European Union, striving for cooperation on the basis of their own values and interests, and not those imposed from Brussels.
The example of the “Danube trio” is also curious because, in addition to Hungary and Austria, two EU member states,
it also includes the “eternal candidate” Serbia.
And Hungary, the leader in the bloc, is not averse to expanding its influence to other countries in the region.
While journalists were besieging Orban, Vučić and Nehammer in Budapest, more dramatic events were unfolding in picturesque western Balkan Bosnia and Herzegovina.
On Sunday, in two entities of this strange state, elections were held for deputies of parliament and the presidium, as well as for the presidents of the Republika Srpska and the Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina.
And there were no surprises here.
The leader of the Party of Democratic Action, Bakir Izetbegovic, a representative of the influential Muslim Izetbegovic dynasty, which ruled Bosnia since 1990, when it was still part of the SFRY, did not enter the presidium of Bosnia and Herzegovina.
This in itself is tantamount to a political earthquake.
And in the Republika Srpska, where Russia's longtime friend Milorad Dodik and the pro-European creation of German NGOs Elena Trivich competed, the situation was completely dangerous:
even before the announcement of the results, Trivich was quick to declare her "victory".
On Monday, the final figures became known: 52.7% for Dodik, 46.94% for Trivic.
But the Konrad Adenauer Foundation invested millions of euros in the Trivich election campaign not to just give victory to the “pro-Russian” Dodik.
Trivich did not recognize her defeat and now demands a re-election!
Something very similar was observed in Kyiv during the first Maidan in 2004.
But while Trivic was convening a press conference, Viktor Orban congratulated Milorad Dodik on his victory in the presidential elections in the Republika Srpska, assuring that he "would strive to continue the excellent political cooperation" between the two countries.
Dodik thanked the Hungarian prime minister warmly and immediately arranged a meeting "in the near future."
This meeting “will be an excellent opportunity to continue discussing the possibilities and ways to further strengthen and deepen cooperation between the Republika Srpska and Hungary,” the Republika Srpska leader wrote on his Twitter.
This Bosnian story shows that Budapest is increasingly confident that it is the main opponent not only of Brussels, but also of Berlin.
And the union of Budapest with the “merry Vienna” adds a pinch of spicy historical allusions to the new Central European alignment.
Out of the ashes of collapsed empires, the contours of a new "Austria-Hungary" opposing the new "Prussia" are molded before our eyes.
Only now the Danube coalition is held together not by the power of the Habsburgs, but by the interests of the peoples - therefore the results of this confrontation may not be the same as a century and a half ago.
The point of view of the author may not coincide with the position of the editors.