The Russian-Ukrainian crisis and its relationship to food security in the region

Abdel Nasser Al Shaali

Aj.alshaali@gmail.com

05 September 2022

When it comes to food security for the countries of the Middle East, including the Arab Gulf states and North Africa, what is happening in the world, such as the Russian-Ukrainian crisis, is not confined to the countries concerned, especially in light of the Middle East and North African countries' dependence on food imports to enhance their food security. And the provision of sufficient quantities of food commodities in the markets, with the population growing very significantly in the past years, whether this increase was naturally, through an increase in the number of births compared to the number of deaths, or through immigration, as is the case in some Arab Gulf countries. , For example, but not limited.

Therefore, in light of the foregoing, it is natural for these countries to worry when a crisis occurs between two countries that export approximately one third of the amount of wheat that is exported globally, for two main reasons.

First, not all countries in the Middle East and North Africa have historically been completely dependent on importing commodities such as wheat.

Some of these countries were either producers to achieve self-sufficiency for the state from its local production, and we see this in the countries of Syria and Saudi Arabia, which were among the top 10 exporters of wheat globally for more than two years in a row in the nineties of the last century.

It is somewhat different for a country like Egypt, which was and still produces wheat, but it has become one of the top 10 importers of wheat in the world, due to the licenses for wheat imports coming from the United States of America, which were provided as part of Egypt’s economic support, since its signing of the Sinai Agreement in 1975, As a result of the rise in the prices of food commodities at the time, along with the rise in oil prices, in addition to the population growth that exceeded the state’s ability to produce enough wheat to achieve internal self-sufficiency.

Second, of course, it is not possible for a country, no matter how developed and advanced its agricultural sector, to produce all food commodities that are consumed in the country, which means the need to import some commodities, and in some cases, most of them are from other countries capable of producing these commodities At a lower cost compared to importing countries, despite the latter's ability to produce it.

Here it is necessary to refer to an example for clarification.

India and China lead the world's rice production to achieve self-sufficiency in this commodity and export the surplus.

However, it cannot be asserted that the cost of production is equal in the two countries based on the principle of differentiation in production within the framework of the theory of international trade attributed to "Adam Smith" and "David Ricardo".

This does not mean the rice trade between the two countries mentioned above, but rather that these two countries are superior to other rice-producing countries.

In conclusion, it is necessary that food-producing and non-food-producing countries do not rely on few or limited import sources when bringing their basic commodities from abroad, which applies to both food-producing and food-importing countries.

While the Russian-Ukrainian crisis emphasized the importance and inevitability of this principle, other crises that preceded it, such as the “Covid-19” crisis and its impact on supply chains and the financial crisis in 2008, were harsh lessons regarding food security for food-producing and food-importing countries.

It is essential that food-producing and non-food-producing countries do not rely on few or limited import sources when bringing in their basic goods from abroad.

@aj_alshaali

Aj.alshaali@gmail.com

Economist specializing in food security.

To read the previous articles of the writer please click on its name.  

Aj.alshaali@gmail.com