The Central Meteorological Observatory continued to issue a high temperature red warning at 18:00 on August 17: It is expected that during the day on August 18, southern Shaanxi, Henan, western Shandong, Anhui, western and southern Jiangsu, Hubei, Hunan, Jiangxi, Zhejiang, Shanghai, Fujian, Sichuan, central The highest temperature in eastern, Chongqing, eastern and northern Guizhou, central and northern Guangxi, and northern Guangdong will be 35°C to 39°C. Among them, southern Shaanxi, eastern Sichuan, Chongqing, western and southeastern Hubei, central and northern Hunan, central Jiangxi, In some parts of central Zhejiang and other places, the highest temperature can reach above 40 ℃.
On the same day, the West China Metropolis Daily and the cover news reporter learned from the National Climate Center that, according to recent monitoring and evaluation, taking into account the average intensity, impact range and duration of high temperature and heat wave events, the comprehensive intensity of regional high temperature events from June 13 to the present has been It was the strongest since complete meteorological observation records began in 1961.
At the same time, according to comprehensive research and judgment, the duration of this regional high temperature and heat wave event will continue to be prolonged, and the comprehensive intensity will be further enhanced.
So, how extreme is the continuous high temperature weather?
What are the reasons?
Will it become the norm?
In this regard, experts analyzed the recent high temperature weather.
Data inventory
In the 28 days that the high temperature warning was issued in a row, what happened to the national heat?
Recently, the high temperature weather has frequently "swiped the screen".
From July 20 to August 17, the Central Meteorological Observatory has issued a high temperature warning for 28 consecutive days.
So, in these 28 days of "scorching", how many cities have the highest temperature exceeded the local historical high temperature extreme value?
Where is the highest temperature in the country?
Which regions have the most persistent heat?
According to statistics from the National Meteorological Information Center, on August 13, a high temperature of 44.6°C occurred at Zhushan Station in Hubei Province, breaking the local historical extreme and becoming the highest temperature in the country during this round of high temperature weather.
According to the Chongqing Meteorological Observatory, as of 15:00 on the 17th, the highest temperature at Beibei Station reached 44.6°C, which once again refreshed the station's high temperature record (the original record of 44.5°C, which appeared on August 14, 2022). The highest temperature ever recorded.
According to statistics, in this round of high-temperature weather, the highest temperature of 194 national meteorological stations in the country broke the historical extreme value, and there were a total of 2440 national meteorological stations in the country, which means that nearly 8% of the observation stations in my country broke the historical extreme value.
The regions that have broken through the historical extreme are mainly distributed in 18 provinces (autonomous regions) including Sichuan, Hubei, Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Fujian, Shaanxi, Chongqing, Qinghai, Anhui, Jiangxi, Hunan, Xinjiang, Gansu, Guizhou, Tibet, Guangdong, Henan, and Guangxi. , municipalities).
Among them, 70 meteorological observation stations in Sichuan have broken historical extremes.
In addition, 24 stations in Hubei, 18 stations in Jiangsu, 14 stations in Zhejiang, and 11 stations in Fujian broke historical extremes.
During the 28 days when the Central Meteorological Observatory issued a high temperature warning, Hangzhou became the provincial capital (municipality and autonomous region capital) city with the most accumulated high temperature days in the country, and the number of high temperature days reached "full" 28 days.
During this round of weather, the top ten provincial capitals (municipalities directly under the Central Government, capitals of autonomous regions) in terms of cumulative high temperature days in China are: Hangzhou 28 days, Nanchang 27 days, Fuzhou 26 days, Chongqing 24 days, Wuhan 21 days, Changsha 21 days, Nanjing 20 days, Shanghai 20 days, Guilin 18 days, Hefei 18 days.
During this round of high temperature weather, Xinjiang, Inner Mongolia, Guangxi, Hunan, Sichuan, Hubei, Henan, Jiangxi, Guangdong and Shandong have become the top ten provinces most affected by high temperature.
During these 28 days, the high temperature weather covered my country's land area of 3.8 million square kilometers.
High temperature cause
The Sichuan Basin to the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River are "shrouded" by the subtropical high
Why is the South so hot this year?
In this regard, Chen Tao, chief forecaster of the Central Meteorological Observatory, said recently that the main reason for the high temperature weather has a certain relationship with the abnormal conditions of the atmospheric circulation.
From the monitoring point of view, the western Pacific subtropical high has a large range and strong intensity. Under its control, the southern part of my country is generally controlled by the downdraft air flow, the sky is clear and less cloudy, and under the influence of sunlight radiation during the day, The heating near the ground is relatively strong, so there is a wide range of high temperature weather.
"The sustained high temperature this year is related to the abnormal atmospheric circulation." Tian Hongjun, chief forecaster of the Shanghai Central Meteorological Observatory, said that this year's subtropical high pressure is abnormally strong. The middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River are all under the control of the subtropical high.
Under the control of the stable subtropical high pressure, the atmosphere is dominated by downdraft air, the sky is clear with few clouds, the sunshine is very good, and the ground heats up rapidly. This strong and stable subtropical high pressure is an important reason for the continuous high temperature this year.
Specifically, the subtropical high is like a solid "high temperature fortress", and the weaker cold air will also "take a detour", making it difficult to achieve the cooling effect.
expert voice
Heatwave events could become the 'new normal'
Recently, Chen Lijuan, chief forecaster of the National Climate Center, said in an interview with the West China Metropolis Daily and the cover news: "This kind of high temperature and heat may occur more frequently in future summers." And in the context of climate change, high temperature heat waves Events may become the "new normal."
It is worth noting that this regional high temperature and heat wave event has the characteristics of long duration, wide range, high intensity and strong extreme.
As of August 15, it had lasted 64 days, the longest since 1961 (more than 62 days in 2013).
Since the summer (June 1 to August 15), the national average number of high temperature days was 12.0 days, 5.1 days more than the same period in normal years, the most in the same period in history since complete meteorological observation records began in 1961.
The high temperature days in southern North China, most of East China, Central China, eastern South China, northeastern Southwest China, most of Xinjiang, and western Inner Mongolia are generally more than 20 days. Central and eastern Xinjiang, northwestern Inner Mongolia, southern Henan, most of Hubei, Anhui, Southern Jiangsu, Zhejiang, central and northern Fujian, most of Jiangxi, most of Hunan, eastern Sichuan, Chongqing and other places for more than 30 days.
The Central Meteorological Observatory predicts that from the 17th to the 19th, the high temperature in the south will continue, especially the highest temperature in the Sichuan-Chongqing region will continue to exceed 40 ℃, becoming the national high temperature center.
In addition, in the next 10 days (August 17-26), there will still be persistent high temperature weather in Sichuan Basin, Jianghan, Jianghuai, Jiangnan and other places, and the cumulative number of high temperature days can reach 7 to 10 days; 38 ℃, local can exceed 40 ℃.