I don’t know about you, but personally, after today’s statement by Gazprom, which, in a series of general figures (the Russian holding company presented reports for seven and a half months), not only rather melancholy announced to me that it does not exclude that gas prices in Europe already this winter they can rise above the record $4,000 per 1,000 cubic meters.

m, but also separately noted that this is still a fairly conservative forecast, it became somewhat uncomfortable.

At the same time, it is necessary to pay attention to the fact that the domestic gas giant is by no means happy, although it would seem that financial indicators should only grow.

In fact, they are growing: it was not for nothing that Miller said at the SPIEF that he was “not at all offended” by the European Commission and that Gazprom would definitely end the current year with record numbers precisely in the financial part.

But the physical volumes, unfortunately, due to some transcendent stubbornness of Western partners, are falling decently, and not only in Europe: exports to non-CIS countries amounted to 78.5 billion cubic meters.

m, expectedly decreasing by 36.2% compared to the same period last year.

By and large, only China is growing.

But this, we repeat, given the situation with the reduction in supplies through the Nord Stream and through the Ukrainian GTS, is quite expected, here the holding can be absolutely calm,

slowly “redistributing flows”: this is more than offset by rising prices.

You sell less, you get more.

For any business, one might say, a dream.

Worse another.

The European crisis began to affect (on scarce markets, let me remind you!) a drop in production, which will simply inevitably affect the entire global energy sector: the conservation law “Where what will decrease, then where what will increase”, brilliantly formulated by the Russian scientist M.V.

Lomonosov, not a single "democracy", sorry, can not be canceled.

And the production of Gazprom from 01/01/22 to 08/15/22, according to preliminary data published by the company, is 13.2% less than in the same period a year earlier.

Moreover, the demand for the company's gas decreased due to the European crisis and in the domestic market (due to the reduction in production, primarily oriented to European markets) - by 2.3%, or 3.6 billion cubic meters.

m. The numbers are not very pleasant for Gazprom either (although they will survive, of course), but for global energy markets this is a real disaster:

there is simply nothing to replace these dropping volumes in world markets.

Miracles, in general, do not happen.

And what this means is also, in general, clear: at such prices, most European industries become stupidly unprofitable.

And the situation there is moving from the realm of economics into the realm of post-apocalyptic fiction: massive (really massive) unemployment, a sharp (many times!) drop in the level and quality of life, cold in houses, dim light of lanterns on the streets, rats on the once cozy streets of civilized European cities.

We repeat: this is only one of the possible scenarios so far, but its implementation, judging by the current trends, is becoming more and more likely.

It is no coincidence that Gazprom emphasizes the “conservativeness” of the forecast.

And this is one of the reasons why I invited one of the best Russian science fiction writers Oleg Divov to my tomorrow evening program on Sputnik.

For this very possible beauty is only, sorry,

Well, the famous Soviet ironic “We were born to make Kafka come true”, unfortunately, seems to be becoming absolutely and practically applicable, at least to the economies of quite nice and still more or less prosperous European countries.

How this will affect their geography, unfortunately, is still difficult to say.

But somehow, no doubt, will affect.

For what “European solidarity” looks like, we saw very well during the COVID-19 pandemic, which, sorry, will seem like a “children's game of rats” compared to what the Old Continent looks like can expect in the coming winter.

The point of view of the author may not coincide with the position of the editors.