The visit of US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi to Taiwan last week did not "immediately" lead to the outbreak of a serious crisis between China and the United States, but the visit has already ignited the crisis between the two largest world powers, and may become the most serious security problem facing the world in decades. .

In response to the visit, the Chinese army launched military exercises near Taiwan that apparently simulate a naval blockade of the island and constitute an unprecedented escalation of Chinese military tactics in the Taiwan Strait.

By adjusting its response, Beijing avoided falling into the trap of an uncalculated military escalation with Washington, but it turned the Pelosi storm into an opportunity to impose a new strategic reality in the region.

If Chinese military exercises do become routine, it is believed, they will significantly disrupt the island's economy and relatively isolate it from the world.

Pelosi inadvertently gave a precious gift to Chinese leader Xi Jinping, to escalate the Chinese campaign for reunification with Taiwan.

Pelosi succeeded in defying China and demonstrating the United States' commitment to supporting Taiwan, but it left the island in a very vulnerable and dangerous position.

The fact that the United States does not have a clear strategy for dealing with a state of war makes Beijing bolder in imposing new rules to compete with Washington over Taiwan

With this show of force, China wants to show its full resolve in defending unity with Taiwan even if it is forced into a war.

War remains an imperfect option for Beijing despite growing Chinese nationalism to force Taiwan back into the mainland.

According to a survey by the state-run Global Times, 70 percent of Chinese strongly support the use of force to unite Taiwan with the mainland.

And 37% think it would be better if war broke out within 3-5 years.

Beijing has another option that is less costly than war, which is the "grey zone" war that is part of the rules of the game that China plays with Taiwan and neighboring countries with which it has territorial disputes.

If the current crisis escalates, it is expected that Beijing will resort to imposing a long-term naval blockade on the island, and possibly strike Taiwanese military targets, as it did in the previous Taiwan Strait crisis.

It can also enact new legislation to speed up the unification process.

Pelosi succeeded in defying China and demonstrating the United States' commitment to supporting Taiwan, but it left the island in a very vulnerable and dangerous position.

The fact that the United States does not have a clear strategy for dealing with a state of war makes Beijing bolder in imposing new rules of competition with Washington over Taiwan.

For decades, Taiwan has been stuck in a gray zone between the United States and China, just as Ukraine has been between Russia and the West.

The relationship that Richard Nixon established with China after his historic visit to it was stable enough to reassure the Taiwanese that Beijing would not attack the island, and the Chinese leader's focus on the national renewal plan and deepening economic relations with the West is another guarantee that Beijing will not risk threatening its economic renaissance and its soft economic policies In the world.

But all this has now changed.

The relationship between Washington and Beijing has entered a turbulent phase since Trump took power, and the Chinese army has intensified a major modernization process for its conventional and nuclear arsenal, and China has invested heavily in its naval fleet, which exceeded the number of American ships, and made progress in the war against submarines.

This gives China the military advantage in any naval conflict with the United States over Taiwan.

Although the United States has reiterated its pledges to ensure Taiwan's ability to defend itself, Washington's policy of strategic ambiguity is determined to preemptively deter Beijing before it aims to engage in a war with it over Taiwan.

The United States is embroiled in a military proxy conflict with Russia in Ukraine and its economy is hyperinflated, and Democrats face a high risk of losing a parliamentary majority in the midterm congressional elections, limiting Biden's ability to engage in a military confrontation with China.

Moreover, the global geopolitical turmoil wrought by the Russian war on Ukraine makes the global costs of any military clash over Taiwan very significant.

Taiwan is currently a second global focus of tension besides Ukraine, but the repercussions of the conflict over it are dozens of times greater than the repercussions of the collapse of Russian-Western relations.

The combination of the two crises is liable to a complete collapse of the rules governing relations between the great powers.

Although the White House has not publicly supported Pelosi's visit, Washington is playing an elaborate role-playing game to provoke Beijing and test its patience.

A possible military confrontation over Taiwan will be devastating to the global economy, which is already battered by the Russian-Ukrainian war, the repercussions of the Corona pandemic and climate change.

The Western belief that the potential consequences for China if it proceeds with forcible reunification with Taiwan will deter it is mistaken.

China's main concern is not about the costs of any confrontation, but about national sovereignty.

President Xi - who is seeking to renew his leadership of the country at the upcoming Chinese Communist Party meeting - needs above all to demonstrate his firm determination to counter US efforts to make the dream of restoring Taiwan difficult over time.

China's military parade in Taiwan as the United States steps up its rhetoric against Beijing increases the risks of tension between two powers that have competed for years for global leadership.

While the two countries have been able for decades to manage their dispute over Taiwan in a way that has not gotten it out of hand, the growing turmoil in relations and the growing doubts about the future of the international system caused by another geopolitical conflict taking place in Europe between Russia and the West are making it more difficult to contain the conflict over Taiwan.

What worries the most in this geopolitical confrontation between Russia and the West on the one hand, and China and the United States on the other, is the nuclear weapon that has returned to become part of the literature of the great powers in challenging each other.

China has invested heavily in increasing its nuclear arsenal over the past years, and the US Department of Defense estimates it will reach at least 1,000 warheads within a decade, more than 3 times the number it currently possesses.

Based on these predictions, Chinese leaders may believe that as early as 5 years from now, the Chinese military will make enough conventional and nuclear gains that it can fight and win a war for union with Taiwan.

What worries the West now is that Putin's victory in the Ukraine war will encourage Xi to take a similar adventure to retake Taiwan, because the West will then be too weak to deter him militarily or punish him economically.

The Chinese have cleverly formulated a gray policy toward Ukraine.

They supported Putin's grievances regarding perceived security threats from NATO, but did not publicly support the war.

Beijing has significant economic interests with the West and does not want to threaten them, and it is an integral part of the global economy.

Eight of China's 10 largest trading partners are democracies, and about 60% of China's exports go to the United States and its allies.

If the West responds to a Chinese attack on Taiwan by cutting off trade ties, the economic costs could threaten the development components of China's renewal plan.

The main driver of the Sino-Russian partnership is a shared sense of perceived threat from the West.

Putin considers - and is partly right - that NATO's expansion towards Russia threatens it, while Xi sees Western support for Taiwan as an encouragement to separate it from China, and he is also partly right, and the two leaders view Western global supremacy as limiting the legitimate ambitions of their countries to play a greater role in the international arena.

While Putin has framed perceived threats from Ukraine as a justification for war, tension with the United States will prompt Xi to formulate perceived threats.

China today relative to the United States is much different than it was more than 50 years ago.

It has become the number one threat, and it is resorting to economic, diplomatic, military and technological force to reshape the international order.

Likewise, the United States with respect to China today is different, becoming more aggressive towards it, tacitly retreating from the one-China principle and rallying its allies in Asia against Beijing.

The world has entered a dangerous phase of unfettered competition between great powers.