Russia is cutting gas supplies to Europe, and European politicians almost all of a sudden decided that "this is not fair."

The Bloomberg editors went even further, calling it “psychological pressure on Europe,” which, of course, sounds as naive as possible, given all the current circumstances.

However, Reuters went even further: it accused Gazprom that because of its actions, the EU will not be able to fulfill its plans to reduce Russian gas consumption.

Which is not even naive anymore.

Meanwhile, it is not politics (and not only technical aspects, to which Gazprom refers) that dictates to reduce gas supplies to Europe right now.

A simple business calculation would force any player in Russia's place to reduce gas sales to Europe.

1


Russia has absolutely nowhere to put so many euros.

There is literally nowhere to put them.

And it's not just about reduced imports - the main reason is that the Central Bank and the Ministry of Finance have stopped filling the bottle, and the prices for Russian raw materials are incredibly high.

Under these conditions, even with a normal volume of imports, the euro overhang would put pressure on the exchange rate, reducing the profitability of Gazprom's business, since its costs are mainly in rubles.

It turns out that the more gas Gazprom sells to Europe, the more it hits its economy.

Why sell more then?

2


Due to EU policy, gas supply prices are pegged to spot prices with a certain lag.

That is, now Gazprom would sell the gas, the price of which was repelled from $1.2-1.5 thousand per 1 thousand cubic meters.

And in a few months he will be able to sell the same gas, but based on current prices, which are 50% higher.

That is, it is corny more profitable to sell more expensive than it is now cheaper.

3


There are voices, including ours, that by doing so Gazprom is damaging its reputation.

This would be the case if contracts were made by populist politicians.

But for the time being, this is being done by professionals from energy companies who perfectly understand and soberly assess the current situation.

Plans for phasing out Russian gas have been put forward no matter how Gazprom behaves now.

These plans in the short term (until 2024) are not feasible at all.

Those kopecks of "reduction" by units of percent, which the European Commission has planned for itself, are more than offset by a rise in prices at times.

If gas costs $3,000 per 1,000 cubic meters, then it will be enough for Gazprom to supply 10% of its supplies last year to have the same financial results.

That is, it is quite normal to reduce supplies by 90%.

By the end of this year and next year, Europe will still buy all the gas that Russia will supply.

And at the price at which he delivers.

So why rush and sell now if winter is coming?

This is purely business.

The point of view of the author may not coincide with the position of the editors.