A new type of coronavirus whose infection is spreading rapidly.
When a group of Nagoya Institute of Technology predicted the future infection situation using AI = artificial intelligence, the number of infected people in Tokyo increased to nearly 40,000 per day in early August and reached its peak. have become.
A group led by Professor Akimasa Hirata of Nagoya Institute of Technology used AI to predict future infection status based on data such as past changes in the number of infected people, vaccine effects, and human flow.
The forecast is that the infectivity of the Omicron strain "BA.5", which is being replaced, is 1.3 times that of "BA.2".
As a result, the number of infected people in Tokyo reached a peak on August 6, with an average of about 39,000 people per day per week.
If the number of people with immunity increases due to infection of many people, the number will decrease after that, but the rate of decrease is gradual, and even at the end of next month, the number of infected people is estimated to be about 26,000. rice field.
On the other hand, the number of people dying will peak in late next month, later than the infected, and is expected to reach about 36 people per day.
Professor Hirata said, "There is a possibility that the alertness to infection may be weakened. Unless many people are infected and form a slightly weak herd immunity, the infection will not subside. I want you to mitigate the increase in the number of infected people as much as possible. "
Tokyo bed usage rate approaches 50%
Bed usage is rising due to the rapid spread of infection.
According to the Tokyo Metropolitan Government, the number of people infected and hospitalized in Tokyo was 3497 as of the 26th.
There were 955 people on the 1st of this month, which is about 3.7 times more.
The bed usage rate was 18.9% as of the 1st of this month, but on the 26th, the preliminary figure was 49.6%, approaching 50%.
A series of cases where the number of home care recipients cannot be hospitalized
Under these circumstances, the number of home recuperators is increasing rapidly in Tokyo.
At clinics that visit home caregivers mainly in Shibuya Ward, Tokyo, there were a series of home visit requests from health centers, and initially there were many younger generation patients, but from the end of this month, hospitalizations such as middle-aged elderly people It means that the number of patients who need it is increasing.
Of these, a 90-year-old man living alone was able to eat and talk after infection, but after a short walk, the oxygen level in his blood dropped to 91%, and he was diagnosed with moderate disease requiring oxygen inhalation. it was done.
In addition, a 77-year-old cancer man who was bedridden had a fever of 39 degrees and his oxygen level had dropped to around 92%, so he was diagnosed with moderate disease and brought an oxygen concentrator to his home. I was treated.
In addition, some children have an underlying illness, and a 1 year and 7 month old infant with a "febrile seizure" illness develops convulsions after infection and continues to have a fever of 40 degrees.
According to the clinic, although the number of patients who need to be hospitalized is increasing, there are a number of cases in which they cannot be hospitalized immediately due to the tightness of their beds and have to continue home medical treatment.
Kosuke Sekiya, director of the "Green Forest Daikanyama Clinic," said, "People who are elderly or who have an underlying illness and are at risk of becoming more severe should be hospitalized. There are no options for this. I am concerned that hospitalization will become more difficult as the number of patients increases in the future. "
Home medical treatment The point of infection control is
The number of home recuperators is increasing nationwide, and according to the Ministry of Health, Labor and Welfare, as of the 20th of this month, the number has reached a record high of 612,000.
We asked Fumi Sakamoto, manager of the Infection Control Office of the QI Center of St. Luke's International Hospital, who is familiar with infection control, what kind of measures are needed.
[At home] When
there are people at home who are infected with the new corona and are receiving medical treatment at home, it is important to prevent the spread of the infection as much as possible
. , Divide the living space as much as possible.
▽ If you are near an infected person in your house, wear masks for each other.
▽ Open the window while paying attention to heat stroke using the air conditioner, and thoroughly ventilate using the ventilation fan.
▽ It is important to thoroughly wash your hands by disinfecting the areas that come into contact with your hands in common areas with alcohol.
Mr. Sakamoto said, "By the time the Omicron strain is tested and found to be infected, it is possible that the co-resident has already been infected. I would like the people living with me to take measures and avoid contact with other people as much as possible while watching for a few days to see if they have any symptoms, thinking that they may be infected. "
[Preparation in advance]
Also, due to the spread of infection, it is becoming difficult to get to a medical institution immediately, so
▽ anti-fever painkillers that can be purchased at pharmacies, ▽ sports drinks for hydration, and ▽ jelly In addition to preparing foods that can be easily eaten, such as beverages,
it is necessary to secure a little more daily necessities for daily life and medicines that people with illness usually receive. increase.
In addition, as a measure before infection,
▽
you can expect to reduce the amount of virus excreted even if you are infected, so you should inoculate a vaccine.
It is also important to put it in place.
Mr. Sakamoto said, "Once the virus is brought into the house, it is very difficult to take measures. There are opportunities for infection such as lunch with colleagues and talking for a long time at a short distance even if you are wearing a mask. I want you to reduce it as much as possible. Preventing infection outside the house is the first step to take measures at home. "
Difficulty in emergency transportation Corona infection is suspected to be the highest ever
The Fire and Disaster Management Agency of the Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications reports on 52 fire departments nationwide, including the fire department where the prefectural office is located, as "cases where transportation is difficult", such as cases where there were four or more inquiries to the hospital before the destination of the patient was decided. It is summarized every week based on.
It was found that the number of cases in the week up to the 24th was 6035, an increase of nearly 1900 from the previous week (4139), and a rapid increase of nearly 1.5 times.
This is about seven times that of the same period in 2019 (873 cases), which was before the spread of the new coronavirus.
Of these, 2676 cases were suspected of being infected with the new coronavirus, which was 44% of the total, which was the highest number ever, exceeding 2067 cases in February during the 6th wave.
By region, ▽ Tokyo had the highest number of 3173 cases of “difficult transportation”.
▽ Osaka City 516 cases, ▽ Yokohama City 424 cases, ▽ Chiba City 254 cases, ▽ Saitama City 199 cases, ▽ Sapporo City 147 cases, ▽ Fukuoka City 145 cases, ▽ Sendai City 101 cases, ▽ There are 93 cases in Kyoto City, 78 cases in Kumamoto City, 71 cases in Nagoya City, and so on.
Compared to the same period in 2019, which was before the spread of the new corona virus, ▽ Tokyo was 9.39 times, ▽ Osaka city was 4 times, ▽ Yokohama city was 12.47 times, ▽ Chiba city was 2.92 times, ▽ Saitama city was 6.63 times. ▽ Sapporo city is 5.25 times, ▽ Fukuoka city is 13.18 times, ▽ Sendai city is 2.89 times, ▽ Kyoto city is 13.29 times, ▽ Kumamoto city is 11.14 times, ▽ Nagoya city is 8.88 times.
In addition to this, although the number of cases is not large compared to large cities, the number of cases that are difficult to transport in various places is increasing rapidly compared to before the spread of infection.
The Fire and Disaster Management Agency of the Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications said, "Compared to the 6th wave, the proportion of cases suspected of being infected with the new coronavirus is increasing, and we would like to keep an eye on future trends."
Okinawa Prefecture "Hospitalization Waiting Station" The number of people who exceed the number of beds is medical treatment
Okinawa Prefecture continues to have an explosive spread of infection.
From April this year, we have prepared 25 beds at the "hospital waiting station" in Naha City, which temporarily accepts people who cannot find a hospital that can be hospitalized immediately.
However, while the number of infected people who need to be hospitalized is increasing in the prefecture, the number of medical staff who are unable to work due to infection is increasing rapidly, and it is difficult to adjust the hospitalization destination. Was full from a few days ago, and as of the 25th, 34 people, which exceeds the number of beds, are being treated, according to interviews with the prefecture and related parties.
A photo taken by NHK on the 25th of the facility shows that a bed is also placed in the aisle and a medical worker wearing protective clothing is treating.
According to the doctor who is in charge of hospitalization adjustment at the prefecture's countermeasures headquarters, most of the medical treatment period at this facility was about one day, but as hospitals restrict hospitalization this month, I have to stay for more than a week. It means that there are some cases where you cannot get it.
In addition, one patient who was undergoing medical treatment died at the facility this month.
Coordination is underway to send up to 30 nurses from the country to the facility, but hospitalization adjustments are expected to remain difficult for some time unless the shortage of health care workers is resolved.
Dr. Hideaki Sasaki, a medical coordinator who is in charge of hospitalization coordination at the prefectural new corona countermeasures headquarters, said, Some people are receiving medical treatment for a long period of time. We are adjusting to increase the number of beds, but even if we increase the number of beds, it is expected that the beds will soon become full under the current infection situation. "
Kanagawa Yokosuka City Hospital The number of mildly ill inpatients is increasing rapidly
Yokosuka Mutual Aid Hospital, located in Yokosuka City, Kanagawa Prefecture, is a regional core hospital that treats critically ill patients such as cancer and stroke, and mainly accepts severe and moderately ill patients with the new coronavirus.
Since the number of inpatients has increased rapidly since the beginning of this month, the number of hospitalized patients has increased more than originally expected, and as of the 25th, 28 patients have been accepted.
Twenty-two of these are hospitalized because they are older and at risk of becoming more severe, or because they have been hospitalized for other illnesses and have been hospitalized for infection, but all are mild.
In addition, there is only one severely ill patient with pneumonia, and the remaining inpatients have symptoms such as moderate illness 1.
According to the hospital, in the "6th wave", the number of patients who became severely ill was increasing, mainly among the elderly, but vaccination is also progressing, and the number of mildly ill inpatients is increasing after April. is.
The hospital is now experiencing a series of infections by doctors and nurses, and we are concerned that if the current situation continues, it could affect our response to critically ill patients with other illnesses.
At hospitals, we are trying to have patients with stable symptoms transferred to another hospital, but the number of hospitals that accept patients with the new corona is limited in the prefecture, and cases where patients cannot be transferred until 10 days after the onset of symptoms. Is most of the time.
Kaoru Nagahori, director of Yokosuka Kyosai Hospital, said, "I feel that the vaccination is progressing and the new corona is clearly becoming less severe. I'm grateful when it comes to the form of medical examination. "
Kanagawa Prefecture To increase the number of beds for moderate and mild cases
According to Kanagawa Prefecture, the number of inpatients is 1452 as of the 25th, and the bed usage rate is 69.14%, while the number of infected people is increasing rapidly in Kanagawa Prefecture.
Kanagawa Prefecture raised the phase of securing beds for moderate and mild cases from 3 to 4 at a meeting of the countermeasures headquarters held on the 26th, saying that there is an increasing tendency especially for inpatients with moderate and mild cases, and 350 beds than now. We decided to increase the number of beds to 1890.
On the other hand, the number of critically ill patients is not increasing, and 100 beds will be maintained.
Governor Kuroiwa said, "I have told you that the number of infected people is increasing, but the beds are not so tight, but they are getting tighter. I am not thinking of stronger behavioral restrictions, but each one is taking measures against infection. I want you to be thorough. "