Biden goes to Riyadh to set fire to Syria?

Erdogan had a telephone conversation with King Salman Al Saud of Saudi Arabia.

The standard protocol is publicly announced: they congratulated each other on Eid al-Adha, discussed relations between countries and regional issues.

But, of course, one of the main topics was Biden's visit to Riyadh.

And it's not just about the oil agenda.

Most likely, Biden is carrying a proposal on Iranian and Syrian issues.

And this directly concerns the interests of Ankara.

On July 19, a meeting of the “Astana troika” is to be held in Tehran: Putin, Raisi, Erdogan.

On the same day, Putin will hold separate talks with his Turkish counterpart.

Of course, the main topic is Syria.

The country was not restored to its pre-civil war borders.

It is the Turkish and pro-Turkish forces under the pretext of fighting the PKK that are in the north of the Arab Republic.

And besides, Erdogan again and again conducts military operations against the Kurds in the occupied territories.

In fact, it is fixed "on the ground."

Saudi Arabia got out of this game some time ago.

But now Biden can offer Mohammed bin Salman to resume the influence of Riyadh on events in Syria.

There are prerequisites.

Due to international sanctions and the consequences of the COVID-19 pandemic, Syria is facing a severe socio-economic crisis.

Those who were able to leave did so.

The rest survive as best they can.

The militants of the IS * (the organization is recognized as a terrorist organization in the Russian Federation) are trying to take advantage of this, so far forming small groups - a kind of partisan detachments.

And now, if someone pumps the militants with money and weapons, as was already the case several years ago, the situation may escalate again.

Why is Turkey

Erdogan, such a scenario is quite suitable.

Now, in fact, he stayed with Russia and Iran.

He does not want to go to confrontation.

But the next dances of militants can create chaos beneficial for the Turkish presence.

Putin will probably try to convince his Turkish counterpart not to repeat past mistakes.

Another “undermining” of Syria could end in a big collapse in the entire region.

Turkey understands this.

But they also proceed from the fact that the growth of internal problems requires the same win on the external circuit.

That is, another chaos in neighboring Syria - although dangerous, but gives a chance for a mini-Ottoman breakthrough.

It is likely that Erdogan discussed this development of events with the King of Saudi Arabia, Salman Al Saud.

Checked hours, risks and prospects.

Why is the USA

Biden, on the other hand, can incite Riyadh to such an adventure 2.0, all in the same logic of oil and gas ticks for the EU.

The US military still controls the largest oil and gas fields in Syria in the provinces of Deir ez-Zor, Al-Hasek and Raqqa.

And they do not intend to leave this zone.

But the Pentagon has begun to worry that Moscow and Tehran are consolidating dominance in the region, creating problems for American interests.

To revive the increased activity of IS militants is a method that has already been tried and tested for Washington.

Especially not at your own expense and not with your own hands.

In addition, the logic of the Biden team is that, being involved in a special operation in Ukraine, Russia will not have time to respond to new challenges in Syria.

Or will be forced to participate in two operations.

What could go wrong for Biden

For Americans, the scheme is traditional.

If you can't beat your opponent on one field, set fire to another.

And in Ukraine, the States are clearly not celebrating their victory.

But even part of the American elite does not believe in success from negotiations with the Saudis.

The Saudis have accumulated a list of complaints against Biden: an attempt to revive the nuclear deal with Iran;

The United States promised to protect the Houthis from missiles, but did not;

in addition, Washington demanded that Riyadh increase oil production in order to bring down the price (unsuccessfully, by the way).

With such a track record, it will be difficult for Biden to achieve a breakthrough in the negotiations.

Very difficult.

Especially when their integral part is to draw the country into another adventure in Syria.

This will only succeed if Biden makes an offer he can't refuse.

But does he have such a resource?

* "Islamic State" (IS) - the organization was recognized as a terrorist organization by the decision of the Supreme Court of the Russian Federation of December 29, 2014.

The point of view of the author may not coincide with the position of the editors.