The 7th wave of coronavirus continues to mount.
In their new projections published Thursday, researchers from the Institut Pasteur anticipate "an increase in hospital admissions in the coming days", both "at the national level" and in "metropolitan areas".
The projections, which date from Tuesday and which go until July 18, count on some 1,700 daily admissions to the hospital on this horizon, against around a thousand these days.
In critical care, admissions would climb to around 160 per day, where they are currently around 100.
Slowdown and overestimates
In certain regions such as Ile-de-France, the team of Simon Cauchemez, modeler at the Institut Pasteur and member of the scientific council, however notes “a slowdown in the growth of hospitalizations and the number of cases”.
“This type of slowdown may be a precursor indicator of the peak of the epidemic, the date of which nevertheless remains uncertain”, according to the Pasteur researchers.
Their analytical model has certain limitations, however, they point out.
Not only "the 14-day projections risk being overestimated in regions where there is a change in dynamics (possible arrival of an epidemic peak)", but "the model probably overestimates the dynamics of critical care admissions" .
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