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Saïkou Oumar Baldé: “Open dialogue on Monday will allow Guinean politicians to obtain guarantees for the next elections”

Audio 04:44

The presidential palace of Guinea Conakry (illustration image).

en.ambaguinee.org

By: Christophe Boisbouvier Follow

4 mins

In Guinea, the political climate has relaxed for 48 hours.

Indeed, the day before yesterday, Monday June 27, for the first time since the beginning of the year, the Prime Minister and the opposition met in Conakry.

Does this mean that the military regime of Colonel Doumbouya, who took power last September, is giving up on the approach of the ECOWAS summit next Sunday?

Not so simple, says Guinean political scientist Saïkou Oumar Baldé, who heads Guinea's CERF Research Center and teaches at Sonfonia University in Conakry.

He answers questions from Christophe Boisbouvier.

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RFI: Saikou Oumar Balde, hello.

Since the beginning of the year, legal proceedings have multiplied against the leaders of the political class.

Is there the will on the part of the soldiers of the CNRD [the National Rally Committee for Development] to eliminate the political leaders from the scene before the next presidential election?

Saïkou Oumar Balde

 : The soldiers were very clear from the start that there would be no candidates not only from the government, nor from members of the CNRD.

However, a number of political parties, such as Cellou Dalein Diallo's UFDG [Union of Democratic Forces of Guinea], the main opposition party at the time of Alpha Condé, and UFR [L'Union of the Republican Forces] of Sidya Touré, would believe that in some way these legal proceedings were aimed at eliminating them from the race for power.

What guarantees that Colonel Doumbouya will not be a candidate in three years?

For the moment, we have to stick to talk, to words, because we don't have enough guarantees.

We see what is happening in Mali, especially with the adoption of the electoral code, we are also waiting for the Guinean texts which could record these guarantees in these texts.

But I think that the framework for dialogue which was opened on Monday by Prime Minister Mohamed Béavogui will allow these political parties to express themselves and above all to ask for guarantees for the next elections.

Since May 10 and despite everything that opposes them, the RPG [the Rassemblement du peuple de Guinée] of Alpha Condé and the UFDG [the Union of Democratic Forces of Guinea] of Cellou Dalein Diallo have reconciled on the back CNRD soldiers.

Isn't that worrying for Colonel Doumbouya?

There are indeed alliances which are created gradually, but at the same time defections of alliances.

I just want to point out that the framework for dialogue that was opened on Monday [June 27] by the president really mobilized the main opposition political parties.

Except that there is a great absentee, the RPG Arc-en-ciel, which did not want to participate in this dialogue by precisely demanding the release of certain detainees of this political party.

But a political alliance of these major parties is still worrying for the CNRD, given that the military relies much more on internal mobilization to deal with sanctions, for example from ECOWAS.

Internal pressure from local actors appears for the moment to be the most effective way of putting pressure on the regime in place.

Unlike Burkina Faso and Mali, Guinea Conakry has access to the sea, is this the reason why the CNRD soldiers are resisting pressure from ECOWAS?

No, it has nothing to do, because, despite the assertions about Guinea's ability to mobilize enough resources to exit the transition without the help of ECOWAS, it is still obvious that any sanction taken against Guinea would aggravate the country's difficulties, especially on the economic level.

We saw it last week with the fuel shortage, so any sanction from ECOWAS would further amplify the difficulties of the population.

And this new framework for dialogue between power and the opposition since Monday, is it a coincidence that it falls a few days before the ECOWAS summit next Sunday [July 3]?

For me, the timing of this meeting of June 27 is not related to the ECOWAS summit of July 3, but in my opinion it follows the threat of the FNDC [the National Front for the Defense of the Constitution] to organize a demonstration last Thursday.

It is important to specify that the framework for dialogue launched this Monday, June 27 is not a direct response to the request of ECOWAS, but follows the threats of the FNDC, the Anti Third Term Front which had been launched by a certain number civil society organizations, which continue to put pressure on the regime in place.

Are the CNRD soldiers more sensitive to internal pressures than to international pressures?

Absolutely, because the CNRD soldiers know that with the support of the population, it is easier to confront ECOWAS and the international institutions than if the internal forces are demobilized.

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