Yasmina Kattou, edited by Romain Rouillard 06:06, June 20, 2022
The number of Covid-19 cases is on the rise again, without causing saturation at the hospital level.
A small wave whose intensity, in the coming weeks, is difficult to predict given the number of factors to take into account.
And especially that of seasonality.
Is the Covid-19 preparing for its big comeback?
After several weeks of increases in the number of Covid cases, with no impact on the hospital, the number of hospital admissions is starting to rise again.
The numbers are climbing but this time it is very difficult to predict the intensity of this wave because several factors have to be taken into account.
The first thing to consider is vaccination coverage.
If 75% of adults in France received a booster dose, this only concerns a third of 60-79 year olds, who are more vulnerable to serious forms.
People infected with BA.2 already protected?
It is then necessary to be interested in the sub-variant of Omicron BA.5 which proves to be more contagious than BA.2.
However, some could avoid reinfection, explains Emmanuel Piednoir, infectious disease specialist.
"As BA.5 derives from BA.2, we imagine that if a very large part of the population has been infected with BA.2, it will be partially protected against BA.5, except immunocompromised patients and fragile patients. So it will reduce the intensity of the epidemic"
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In addition, this wave occurs in summer when the time spent outdoors is greater, which reduces the risk of clusters in closed places.
But the abandonment of barrier gestures could thwart this effect.
In May, according to a survey, only 1 in 2 French people said they washed their hands regularly.