Some dramas are released as soon as they are broadcast, and some dramas have not been released yet.
Why does Douban's opening time become "metaphysical"
Since last year, there has been a general feeling in the outside world. Usually, for dramas with normal quality and conventional marketing, Douban will open earlier, and the median will be about a week after the broadcast; the streaming stars will open later; The drama may not be "quietly" separated until the end of the drama.
Since the beginning of this year, Douban's opening time has become more and more like "metaphysics", which is elusive.
So, what is the point of time to decide the split?
Difficult to find rules for split time
The popularity of "Menghualu" is staggering at the moment: as a costume idol drama that did not attract widespread attention beforehand, it suddenly exploded on the fourth day of its broadcast, and achieved "breaking the circle" in almost one day, with full-scale heated discussions. An important tipping point is that Douban scored on this day, and the dramatic increase from 8.3 points to 8.8 points in one day is the highest score of domestic dramas so far in 2022.
This news not only constituted a hot spot in itself, but also objectively pulled a large number of "passers-by" into "recorded people" because of curiosity.
There have been different opinions on whether the Douban score is objective or not and how much it has an impact on the market, but its existence is indeed an important word-of-mouth reference standard, and is often used by fans and the media as an evaluation tool.
If the score is low, it will usually be sentenced to "can be taken away directly"; if the score is high, it will receive favorable word of mouth blessing.
Therefore, the game between the Douban scoring mechanism and various "fan-protecting dramas" and "malicious one-star hits" has long been no secret.
Since last year, the outside world has a general summary of the rules of Douban's opening time.
Since the beginning of this year, Douban's opening time has become more and more like "metaphysics": the two "dark horses" of "Menghualu" and "Beginning" both scored high scores four days after the broadcast, which caught people off guard; "Shangshi" has a very high preheating heat. After the broadcast, it was obviously lower than the audience's expectations in all aspects, and no points were released. Only two episodes left before showing the cards: one with 5.8 points and one with 5.4 points.
If you sum up the bad dramas in this way, you have to hold on and not make a difference, then "The World" and "Police Honor" are counter-examples. They have formed a high social reputation during the broadcast, but Douban only opened near the end of the drama. point.
Some people speculate that dramas starring "traffic artists" are prone to fan-black wars, which will inevitably lead to late splits. Even "Please Advise for the Rest of Your Life" starring Xiao Zhan and Yang Zi has not been split so far; urban drama "Heart Home" "Obviously does not belong to the above situation, but the score is also late.
Could it be that the controversy over the plot and characters during the broadcast will also affect the split time?
Scoring varies from show to show
Opaqueness of any scoring mechanism will inevitably lead to a crisis of trust. What is the timing of Douban's scoring?
In response to the question about why "Menghualu" opened quickly and locked after it opened high, Douban responded a few days ago, saying that the rapid opening is because there are few black fans and disputes, the amount of manual review is not large, and the number of people who can be trusted to score is large; The lock points are due to the rapid increase in the number of scorers after the score is divided, the difficulty of manual review work, and the "centralized score adjustment" similar to the centralized score.
Douban revealed that there is no such thing as a deliberate advance or delay in the scores of Douban.
When the rating data of film and television dramas reaches a certain level of reliability and the scores are relatively stable, the scores can be divided.
Different types of film and television works need to accumulate different numbers of credible scores. The data required for ordinary dramas, dramas with an internal rating of A or above on the platform, and key dramas increases in sequence, and there may be cases where tens of thousands of people still do not meet the open-point standard.
If Douban cannot be divided, there are usually two situations: one is that the popularity of the episode is insufficient, the real passers-by clicks and effective scores are too few, and the score is not up to the standard; the other is relatively extreme, that is, there are more controversial dramas, The Douban platform will also have restrictions on whether to split.
As for how to calculate "the score is as stable as possible", Douban's explanation is that for any newly released work, as the number of viewers grows, the group that scores on Douban will continue to approach the average taste of the real public moviegoers, making The distribution of evaluations tends to be stable, and the scores will gradually be fixed, and the amount of change will become smaller and smaller, until the score is less than 0.1 points, the score will no longer change.
This year's dramas, except for a few popular and explosive dramas, have become "centralized and divided" because of manual review, that is, no matter which day they are broadcast, they will be divided according to the large time period. Batch manual review is conducted, and then batches are divided into batches on the same day or a few days before and after.
Scoring immediacy has diminished
According to the above criteria of Douban, it can be roughly speculated that the score of "Menghualu" is fast because the male and female protagonists have few black fans, little controversy, and the amount of manual "water removal" review is not large; as for the lock score after the score rises to 8.8, it can be understood as a score The number of people increased in an instant, which led to an increase in the difficulty of manual review of "water removal".
At present, the score of "Menghualu" has temporarily dropped to 8.7.
Nowadays, no matter whether good dramas or bad dramas, high-scoring dramas and low-scoring dramas are released late, the immediacy of Douban scores will be weakened, which objectively makes it more and more difficult to highlight the early word-of-mouth advantages of excellent dramas; Lord, you can even confuse the public for a long time before the end of the play.
From this point of view, Douban score is just one of the so-called "audience scores" launched by many institutions. Understanding its gameplay may help you choose which angle to look at it.
Text/Reporter Yang Wenjie Coordinator/Liu Jianghua