They modeled the teacher shortage up to the year 2035.

Why is this so important right now?

Uwe Ebbinghaus

Editor in the Feuilleton.

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We know that there was an increase in births from 2010 to 2020;

the first strong cohorts have already started school, and there are already slight teacher shortages at the elementary schools.

But we won't experience the big drama for four or five years, when these children start attending secondary schools.

In fact, it is already too late to counteract this in a reasonable manner, and there will be aggravation elsewhere.

This is shown by the example of Bavaria, where the problem was recognized and the teaching degree courses for primary schools were very successfully opened up.

But only a few decide to become a secondary school teacher, which later often involves dealing with children from socially disadvantaged backgrounds.

At the same time, we will be increasingly confronted with the topics of digitization or green technology in the future, i.e. topics that require strong analytical skills.

Educational success in the fields of mathematics and natural sciences is an important prerequisite here.

And since the number of children from non-German-speaking families, for whom educational success is particularly important, is also increasing at the same time, we see the school system as a major challenge.

The child has already fallen a bit into the well.

we see the school system as severely challenged.

The child has already fallen a bit into the well.

we see the school system as severely challenged.

The child has already fallen a bit into the well.

What factors make it difficult to accurately calculate the teacher gap?

First, we are dealing with two major uncertainties when it comes to teacher inventories.

One concerns the issue of retirement and retirement: How long will the teachers stay with us?

At least there has been a positive development here in recent years.

The other element of uncertainty has to do with how many teachers are going part-time or taking time off for family reasons.

Of course, there are also uncertainties among the younger generation: How great is the interest in the teaching profession – which subjects are particularly popular?

And there are also uncertainties when it comes to demand.

Since Corona, for example, interest in the Abitur seems to have increased again after a period of stagnation.

With increasing academization, however, we will then need more teachers in the upper grades.

In addition, in the last few weeks and months we have seen that many children and young people from the Ukraine have come to us.

Something like this is not foreseeable.

Why did you make your own calculation?

There are already two from this year on the subject, one from the Conference of Ministers of Education (KMK), one from the recognized educational researcher Klaus Klemm on behalf of the Education and Training Association (VBE).

Since school education is becoming increasingly important for social and economic development in Germany, we have been interested in the topic for some time.

What weaknesses do you see in the calculation of the KMK?

The calculation is incredibly opaque.

It is based on figures from the individual ministries of education, which are only compiled by the KMK.

Especially when it comes to the figures given for the teachers moving up, one has the strong feeling that they are too optimistic.

In some federal states, for example, you can see that the same value is always given for new hires, although the number of high school graduates has changed significantly during this time.

I would expect the Conference of Ministers of Education to calculate different scenarios so that you get a feeling for what could happen in the worst case.

The Federal Statistical Office does something like that when it comes to population forecasts.