Finland's determination to end its 75-year neutrality, and Sweden's and, in general, more than two centuries of neutrality (since 1814) did not at first run into objections from the power that was most concerned, that is, Russia.

Finnish President S. Niinistö even marveled at the cold-blooded tone of V.V.

Putin during a conversation with him: free, they say, will, and if you have to regret it later, you are not small, you yourself must understand.

Trouble came from where they did not expect.

In the far south, Turkish President Erdogan said briefly and clearly to northern applicants: “We cannot say yes.

Then NATO will not be a security organization, but will become a place where there will be many representatives of terrorists.

We cannot say yes, let them not be offended.

Erdogan meant that both in Sweden and in Finland the Kurds feel excessively at ease and he does not intend to tolerate this.

Such a suggestive diplomatic move.

Since NATO and the EU have rallied (and for a long time) in principle not allowing what they call Crimean and Donbass separatism, Ankara is interested in why it is worse than Kyiv and why Donbass separatism is unacceptable, while Kurdish separatism is completely.

Of course, double standards are generally inherent in international politics, and the politics of the West are purely and strictly.

From Brussels they will answer: "That's a completely different matter."

And what do you say here?

But the fact of the matter is that in this case there is something to object to.

Turkey, as a member of NATO, is not some Latvia to which you can always say: “Sha!”

Unlike conditional Latvia, Turkey is a serious regional power.

Its land army is the second largest in NATO (after the United States), and

the mechmetchik

(Turkish soldier) has long been distinguished by good fighting qualities.

Finally, Turkey sits on the Black Sea straits, which is extremely important for the entire southern flank of NATO.

Any Turkish leader, having such trump cards in his hands, would not refuse to play interesting games with the democratic military alliance, especially since formally the entry of new members into NATO should take place on the basis of consensus.

But Erdogan is not just anyone.

Whether he imagines himself to be someone like Suleiman the Great or not is a difficult question, but in any case he is a gambler and at the same time a skilled player who loves to raise the stakes and bluffs with sensitive knowledge of his partner.

Recall how in 2015 he played a game with the passage of Middle Eastern (and not only) refugees through Turkey to Europe and how Europe caved in.

Today, the situation is no less favorable for Turkey.

The Western alliance is mired in the Ukrainian campaign and self-imposed sanctions.

The economy is bursting at the seams, and weapons from the depleted Western arsenals are flowing in a powerful stream to Ukraine for subsequent transformation into secondary metal.

There is, of course, a resource for a counter strike against Erdogan, but not very large.

The Turkish leader is banking confidently so far.

The West, of course, is also trying to do something to appease the Turk.

The leader of the European People's Party, the largest in the European Parliament, Manfred Weber, promised that isolation would await Turkey if it tried to block Sweden and Finland from joining NATO: "Anyone who questions the cohesion of NATO will be isolated within the community."

Sounds terrible.

True, now serious men are less and less considered even with the European Commission - with all these Ursuls and Borrells, and the EP has always been the fifth wheel in the cart - also pay attention to it.

In addition, the promise “to be isolated within NATO” is unlikely to greatly frighten Erdogan, who, with his independent policy, is already so isolated, and does not see anything terrible in this.

The Americans, in turn, began to court Greece - obviously, to spite Turkey.

With reference to the Greek Prime Minister Mitsotakis, it is reported that Biden told him that "Washington and Athens must demonstrate the ability of democracies to work together."

He also did not rule out that he would pay a visit to Athens.

The deterioration of relations with Turkey is always accompanied by an improvement in relations with Greece.

Another question: is it so sensitive for Erdogan?

In addition to the task, there are talks - officially not confirmed, however, neither by Washington nor Ankara - that NATO, the Swedes, Finns, Kurds are just a pretext, a hook, but in fact we are talking about the lifting of US sanctions on Turkey for the purchase of the Russian S-400 complex and about permission to sell it F-35 fighters.

Maybe you are right.

Although sanctions C are such a thing: today we remove them, tomorrow we introduce them again.

It is the same with permission - today we give it, tomorrow we withdraw it again.

Trade can be long and interesting - just as two Levantine merchants, who seem to have agreed on a deal, cannot unclench their hands in any way and hand over what is required to one another, because each is afraid that he will give what he promised, while the other will not open his hand and will not give.

As an immoral person who himself has become adept at all sorts of tricks, Erdogan does not trust the Americans.

Luckily, they have repeatedly given a reason for this.

So the Levantine trade will amuse us for a long time - it seems that the Turks intend to use the situation to the maximum.

The point of view of the author may not coincide with the position of the editors.