Where will the platform and the anchor go after the "big brother" disappears?

quick worker

Negative growth in revenue from live streaming

  With the disappearance of short video dividends and the tightening of supervision, from 2020, Kuaishou's live broadcast reward business has entered a bottleneck period, and in 2021, live broadcast reward revenue will begin to experience negative growth.

Tencent Music

or increase membership pay rates for online music

  Its social entertainment sector, the virtual gift income of Quanmin K Song has always been the main source of revenue for the company.

As the regulatory upgrade of live show live broadcasts directly affects the company's revenue capacity, it may increase the membership payment rate of online music by increasing paywalls and adding advertisements in the future.

betta

We will explore ways to monetize other than live rewards

  The annual operating income in 2021 will be 9.165 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 4.55%, mainly due to the year-on-year decrease in live broadcast revenue.

Cao Hao, vice president of finance, said: “We will explore new ways of monetization in addition to live broadcast rewards to improve monetization efficiency.

  In the live broadcast room, the "big brother on the list" is undoubtedly the most "card-faced" existence.

They are well-funded and generous, and they are the favorites of platforms and streamers.

  With the spread of lively live broadcast rewards, there have also been many industry chaos: edge ball content, anchors inducing users to swipe gifts, huge rewards for minors, false propaganda, etc.

  However, just recently, the online live broadcast industry where rewards are popular has ushered in a sea change.

  On May 7, the four ministries and commissions of the state jointly issued the "Opinions on Regulating Online Live Rewards and Strengthening the Protection of Minors", which stipulates that online platforms should cancel all the reward lists within one month of the publication of this opinion, and prohibit the The reward amount is the only basis for ranking, attracting, and recommending network anchors. It is forbidden to rank users based on the reward amount.

  This means that the "big brother" in the live broadcast room will no longer exist, and it also means that it will not be so easy for the live broadcast industry to make money.

This is obviously not good news for anchors, guilds, and platforms, or even a heavy blow.

cool down

Four orders in a row

Rectify the chaos of live broadcast rewards

  After entering the era of mobile Internet, live broadcasts have undergone tremendous changes on both the supply and demand sides of content.

Everyone can live broadcast, and everyone can give a reward, and live broadcast has officially entered the era of low threshold.

  Soon, all kinds of capital and entrepreneurs poured into the live broadcast track.

In 2016, the "Thousand Broadcasting War" kicked off; in 2017, short video entered a period of explosive growth, and then short video platforms also launched live broadcast services.

  Regarding the business model of live broadcast, Fu Zhengjun once proposed "love" in the 9185 period.

This kind of "admiration" is actually the impulsive consumption of users. As the "beneficiary" platforms, guilds and anchors, they go to great lengths to stimulate users' willingness to pay.

The guild (similar to the anchor's brokerage company or packaging company) and the anchor are mainly responsible for the content, including appearance, figure, age, etc., as well as skills such as singing, acting, and games.

  If the content is attractive enough, it will attract users to actively "swipe gifts" to the anchor.

The more gifts, the higher the ranking of the tipper.

The platform constantly formulates new rules and gameplay: two-player confrontation, four-player live broadcast, list ranking...

  With the upgrade of the gameplay, the payment motivation of "big brother" is no longer limited to "admiration" for the anchor, but also vanity and comparison.

This kind of business logic based on human weakness will inevitably lead to various industry chaos.

  In order to attract attention, it is not uncommon for anchors to wear revealing clothes, or to speak vulgarly, or to attract users to give high rewards through vulgar performances, or even induce minors to recharge and reward related events.

  CCTV has exposed related incidents many times, and the Cyberspace Administration of China has also inspected the content ecology of many domestic live broadcast platforms many times, and interviewed many leading live broadcast platforms such as Station B, Douyu, Quanmin K Song, Inke, etc. .

  In November 2020, the State Administration of Radio, Film and Television issued a notice requiring restrictions such as real-name authentication and tipping limits for users’ tipping behaviors.

  In February 2021, seven national ministries and commissions jointly issued the "Guiding Opinions on Strengthening the Standardized Management of Webcasting", setting a reasonable upper limit for the total amount of rewards received in a single game, a single virtual consumer product, and a single reward amount for anchors of different levels, and set Reward cooling-off period and delayed payment period.

  The "Opinions on Further Regulating the Profitable Behaviors of Online Live Broadcasting and Promoting the Healthy Development of the Industry" issued at the end of March 2022 requires regular reporting of profit-making behaviors and income status, and does not allow false marketing to induce consumers to give rewards.

  Regarding the "Opinions on Regulating Online Live Rewards and Strengthening the Protection of Minors" issued on May 7, it can be said that it has further blocked the door for anchors to obtain huge rewards.

Now that there is no list, the vanity of the "big brothers" can no longer be satisfied, which will make the user's payment more rational and reduce impulsive consumption.

Reward limit

Short video platforms: The bottom line of advertising commissions is less affected

  The two giants of short video, Douyin and Kuaishou, are rapidly rising in the field of live broadcast relying on huge traffic advantages, and short video anchors often need to take into account both content and live broadcast skills.

  At present, Kuaishou’s revenue is divided into three parts: live broadcast rewards, advertisements, and others (mainly e-commerce commissions).

  The live broadcast tipping business was Kuaishou’s main monetization method before 2018. Relying on the “old iron” culture, the platform has produced many anchors with high user stickiness.

The financial report shows that in 2019, Kuaishou’s live broadcast reward revenue reached more than 30 billion, making it the largest live broadcast platform in China.

  Since then, with the disappearance of short video dividends and the tightening of supervision, from 2020, Kuaishou's live broadcast reward business has entered a bottleneck period, and in 2021, live broadcast reward revenue will begin to experience negative growth.

  At the same time, Kuaishou's advertising business and other businesses have grown rapidly in the past two years, and their contribution to revenue is also increasing.

  Therefore, for a head-end short video platform like Kuaishou, with the huge traffic advantage, the live-streaming tipping business can still bring relatively considerable income to the company in the future.

However, as the industry has entered a period of weakness, coupled with new regulations, the revenue ceiling of the livestreaming tipping business has already been reached, and the proportion of revenue is likely to decline further. The platform will also focus on advertising, livestreaming e-commerce or other innovative businesses. superior.

Music platform:

The main business is damaged or the payment rate is increased to make up

  For online music streaming media platforms, because music is naturally entertaining, it is natural to get on the “free ride” of live shows.

  For example, Tencent Music's social entertainment sector, the virtual gift income of the national K song, has always been the main source of revenue for the company.

In recent years, the number of monthly active users and paying users of the national K-song has declined significantly. Just looking at the "K-song" business, it is difficult to support the future of Tencent Music.

  The financial report shows that Tencent Music’s social entertainment revenue in 2021 will be 19.78 billion yuan, lower than the 19.8 billion yuan in the same period in 2020.

  NetEase Cloud Music has also been expanding its social entertainment business frantically in recent years, with remarkable results.

According to the prospectus, NetEase Cloud Music’s social entertainment services and other revenue accounted for only 10.6% of its total revenue in 2018, and by the first half of 2021, this revenue accounted for 49.6% of its total revenue.

  Whether it is Tencent Music or NetEase Cloud Music, live shows are now the main source of revenue for companies.

Therefore, the supervision and upgrading of live broadcast of the show will directly affect the revenue capacity of music streaming media companies.

  In the future, these companies may also increase the membership payment rate of online music by increasing paywalls and increasing advertisements.

However, referring to the current long video streaming media in my country, the ceiling of user payment rate is still relatively low, and the music streaming media platform may need to explore more monetization methods in the later stage.

Traditional live broadcast platforms:

The "pure show" category is the most impacted

  Compared with live broadcasts of games or life, traditional live broadcast platforms such as "pure show" rely more on users' impulsive consumption.

  In April 2016, Momo officially launched its live broadcast business.

According to the financial report, Momo's revenue in 2016 soared by 313% year-on-year to US$550 million, of which the live broadcast business contributed nearly 70%.

  According to public information, Momo's "Top Ten Anchors in 2016" had a combined annual income of 115 million yuan.

Since then, the live broadcast segment has also become Momo's main source of income, and Momo has gradually moved closer to software that focuses on live broadcasts and has social functions at the same time.

  But in 2021, Momo's performance will also decline.

  In this regard, Momo once said that it was due to "the negative impact of the macro economy, especially the business conditions of private business owners, on top consumption."

That is to say, the decline in the payment ability of the "big brother" directly affects the total revenue level of the company.

  Traditional platforms that rely too much on the single business of "live broadcast" have also been hit hard.

  For example, the live broadcast giant Douyu, the live broadcast business is the main source of revenue for the company, and it typically walks on one leg.

  From 2018 to 2021, its live broadcast revenue accounted for 86.1%, 90.9%, 92.2% and 93.8% of its total revenue, respectively.

  However, due to bottlenecks in the user's payment rate and payment amount, Douyu's revenue and net profit experienced a major decline in its 2021 financial report.

In 2021, its annual revenue will be 9.165 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 4.55%, mainly due to a year-on-year decrease in live broadcast revenue.

  After the release of the financial report, Cao Hao, vice president of Douyu Finance, said: “We will explore new ways of monetization in addition to live broadcast rewards to improve the efficiency of monetization.

  However, for today's Douyu, under the impact of this round, there is not much time left for the platform to explore new businesses.

wait and see

is to keep jumping

Or start a new business?

  It is undeniable that the domestic live broadcast track is already in the late stage of development when the traffic peaks.

The growth rate of live broadcast business revenue of major live broadcast platforms has slowed down significantly, and even experienced negative growth.

This means that it is getting harder and harder for a single live broadcast business to make money, but the competition has not diminished at all.

  After all, due to the low threshold, today's major Internet companies regard live broadcast as a "planting land". Although the expectations for live broadcast have been lowered, live broadcast is indispensable.

  In general, the live broadcast of domestic shows will not stop, and it will still appear in front of us in various new ways after the "impact".

  For the anchors, the head anchors may rely on their existing fan base to try to transform into advertising, live broadcast and other businesses.

  And for more mid-waist anchors, this round of regulation isn't even bad news for them.

After all, there is no reward quota for the ranking, drainage, and recommendation of the anchor, which means that the traffic will be spread evenly, and even gradually tilted towards the mid-waist anchor.

  As for the platform, it can seek transformation or develop new business.

  In addition, some companies and guilds have begun to deploy overseas markets. For example, in 2020, Joyful Times sold its Huya Live and YY Live to Tencent and Baidu, and withdrew from the domestic live broadcast business, taking the only BIGO live broadcast to expand its overseas live broadcast business. ; Similarly, there are also domestic guilds that go live on TikTok and so on.

  The live broadcast of the show, this group of flames about entertainment and money, will continue to jump.

  Chengdu Business Daily-Red Star News reporter Yu Yao and Liu Mi

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