Will the number of people infected with the new corona continue to increase? What is the outlook ...?

A large consecutive holiday with no restrictions on activities for the first time in three years.

The movement across prefectures has returned to near the level before the spread of the infection, and tourist destinations in each region were crowded with many people.

The number of new infections with the new coronavirus continued to decline gradually, but from the latter half of the consecutive holidays, it reached a record high in Okinawa, and in Tokyo it has exceeded the same day of the previous week for four consecutive days.

It seems that the number of infected people is increasing, but is the effect of consecutive holidays coming out?

And what is the outlook for the future ...?

■ This year, it has been on a downward trend since February, but ...

The number of infected people nationwide has been declining since February due to the peak of the sixth wave of infection. There were too many people.

Furthermore, the downward trend became remarkable during the consecutive holidays, and on the 6th of this month, the number of people was about 22,000 a day, and the average number of people a week was about 24,000.

However, on the 7th of this month, there were more than 39,000 people a day, and on the 8th, there were more than 42,500 people, and as of the 9th, it seems that the average number of people per week is increasing to nearly 30,000.

In Tokyo, the number of confirmed infections has exceeded the same day of the previous week for four consecutive days until the 10th.

<Okinawa> The number of infected people at the end of the Golden Week holidays is the highest ever

On the other hand, in Okinawa Prefecture, where many tourists visited during the Golden Week holidays for the first time in three years, the number of infected people reached a record high of 2375 on the 7th of this month at the end of the holidays, and 2060 on the 8th of the last day. It was the second person in the past.

As of the 9th, the number of infected people per 100,000 population is more than 760, which is the highest ever.

■ Is the number of infected people increasing?

What is the relationship with the Golden Week holidays?

Experts say that the increase in the number of infected people now seems to be a reaction to the decrease in the number of tests during the long holidays and the temporary decrease in the number of confirmed infected people. ..

Professor Kazuhiro Tateda of Toho University, a member of the government's subcommittee on measures against the new coronavirus, said, "It is safe to go to a tourist spot during a long holiday and spread the infection in the area, and have returned to the urban area. There is also the possibility that it will become a new source of infection. We must carefully watch how the number of infected people changes. " It is pointed out that it is necessary to determine whether it will lead to an increase in the number of people, at least until this weekend.

■ Progressive vaccination There is also a view that there is no significant increase

Currently, as of the 10th of this month, the rate of vaccination for the third dose is

close to 90% for elderly people at high risk of

aggravation

.

Some have suggested that even if the number of infected people increases, the number of infected people will not increase significantly as vaccination progresses and infection control measures continue.

■ Corona-compatible sickbed “Be careful not to lead to tightness”

On the other hand, as of 9th, the usage rate of corona-compatible beds

is 46.9% in Okinawa Prefecture, which has the highest number of infected people per population

, and 15.7% in Tokyo

. You need to be careful if you can connect.

■ The existence of a new mutant virus ...

The only thing I'm curious about is the new mutant virus.

Currently, the mutant virus that occupies the majority in Japan is the Omicron strain "BA.2", but in the United States, the virus "BA.2.12.1" is increasing among "BA.2".

1. Does the US "BA.2.12.1" affect the increasing trend of the number of infected people?

According to the CDC = Centers for Disease Control and Prevention in the United States, "BA.2.12.1" accounted for 36.5% in the week leading up to April 30, affecting the fact that the number of infected people has been on the rise in the past few weeks in the United States. There is also a view that it is doing.

2. South Africa "BA.4" and "BA.5" increased

In South Africa, "BA.4" and "BA.5" among the Omicron strains are increasing, and the replacement from "BA.2" is progressing.

3. What is the nature of the virus?

The nature of these viruses is not yet well understood, but it has been pointed out that the spread of infection may be slightly faster than that of "BA.2".

British health officials said that "BA.4" and "BA.5" have a mutation in "L452R" found in Delta strains, which may affect the function of neutralizing antibodies and "BA.4". There is a report of the experimental result that the function of the antibody is reduced.

On the other hand, WHO = World Health Organization so far says that there is no difference in the risk of hospitalization.

■ Experts ...

Professor Atsuo Hamada of Tokyo Medical University, who is familiar with overseas infectious diseases, said, "It is thought that the number of infected people will increase like the sixth wave because the third vaccination will progress and it will be easier to ventilate climatically. I think it's difficult. I'm still not sure how serious the new mutant virus is, but I need to assume that there is a possibility that "BA.4" and "BA.5" will come to Japan in the future. It is necessary to closely monitor new mutant viruses and think about how they can be mitigated while continuing to take measures to prevent infection. "

In addition, Professor Kazuhiro Tateda of Toho University said, "We are now in a situation where many people can move and enjoy traveling and returning home during the Golden Week holidays. How can we prevent the number of infected people from increasing while there are so many people moving? It is important to determine what kind of countermeasures will be mitigated after ascertaining them. Now, I think it is necessary to take measures to gradually mitigate infection control while paying attention. In order to prevent the spread of infection after the Golden Week holidays, it is necessary to closely observe the changes in one's physical condition, and if there is something wrong, take measures such as seeing a medical institution or undergoing an examination as soon as possible. It will be. "