In fact, we do not have very good news for our Western partners.
As the Main Customs Administration of the People's Republic of China reported on Monday, a holiday for our country, the trade turnover between Russia and China in January-April of this year, 2022, grew by an annualized rate of 25.9%, reaching a very significant $51.09 billion. Which, without a doubt , could be considered quite an obvious success in bilateral economic relations even, let's say, in much less troubled times.
To these figures, or rather, to their very curious "decoding", so to speak, we will definitely return a little later, it's worth it.
But so far, this is not even the most interesting.
As follows from the data of the same Chinese gas turbine, in fact, in January-April, the volume of natural gas imports to China decreased by 8.9% compared to the same period last year, to 35.8 million tons.
The volume of oil imports to China for the same first four months, when the trade turnover between our countries grew so much, amounted to 170.8 million tons, also decreasing, although not so significantly, by 4.8%.
Now let's return to the sharp growth in export-import operations between the Russian Federation and China, to the very specific figures that we promised you a little earlier.
So, as follows from the data published by the same Chinese customs officials, exports from China to the Russian Federation in January-April increased by 11.3% and amounted to about $20.24 billion. In fact, of course, against the backdrop of the worsening global economic crisis, this is already very good in itself, but now it’s a bit different: imports of Russian goods and services grew much more seriously, by about 37.8%, to $ 30.85 billion. At the same time, it is worth remembering that about 70% of the value countries in the great China of goods still account for energy, that is, all the same oil, natural gas and coal.
Purchases of which China, as we saw above, have significantly reduced.
So, is this the same “Chinese help” that many have been waiting for?
Well, of course not.
China is not at all on the side of the Russians in this very acute phase of our confrontation with the West.
Everything is much worse and more serious for the West: China acts exclusively on its own side.
And everything that happens, alas, is quite a natural and objective process.
Now let's try to explain.
In fact, China reduced its oil and gas imports by 4.8% and 8.9%, respectively, only, so to speak, in “physical volumes”.
In value terms, imports of natural gas to the People's Republic of China grew by 59.9%, to $21.6 billion, and oil - by 49.7%, to $116.07 billion. around, plus or minus planned.
It's just that their prices are growing sharply due to the systemic crisis unfolding in the west of the giant Eurasian continent.
Moreover, they have been doing this for quite a long time and without any “Ukrainian conflict”.
Just remember that when gas prices began to rise in Europe, the whole world was still thinking something about the Minsk agreements, actively discussing the impending “green transition”, calculating the carbon footprint and following the travels of Greta Thunberg.
After all, everything is quite simple here: it was not the "Ukrainian events" that caused the impending crisis of the Western economic model, which is quite capable of developing - this is already obvious - according to the most catastrophic scenario.
Rather, it is an attempt to solve their catastrophic imbalances in the economy by military-political methods classical for the conditional, primarily Anglo-Saxon, West, which has become the main underlying cause of the events developing in the east of the European subcontinent.
And not at all vice versa.
What does this tell us in the first place?
First of all, about the need to put aside any victorious reports for the time being.
The fact that the positive balance of Russia in trade with China in January-April reached $10.61 billion, having increased by 2.77 times compared to the same period in 2021, is certainly a pleasant figure.
But our country has not yet made any “pivot to the east”, even in energy trade, it is still just beginning.
And this, in fact, is a rather complicated and even purely logistically very slow process.
Yes, and the game is played on many boards at once: remember, for example, the very rational position of OPEC, which is so infuriating the current “global West”.
But in such scenarios, the interests of our OPEC+ partners in their traditional markets must also be taken into account - this, pardon the banality, is in our common interests.
And our “movement to the east” does not at all mean an immediate exit from the same European markets, we have no such desire.
We, even the leadership, have no particular desire to punish European politicians with economic methods, so far.
Although there is a reason, and there are more than enough such opportunities.
But our bosses are cold-blooded and rational, and at least we were really lucky in this.
There's something else worse.
Turning to the east, and quite resolutely and systematically, whether we like it or not, will still have to be done pretty soon.
Indirectly, this, in particular, was confirmed by the "energy" Deputy Prime Minister Novak, who said that Russia is indeed considering a number of new infrastructure projects to diversify oil supplies (in particular, the expansion of the East Siberia-Pacific Ocean oil pipeline is being discussed to increase oil supplies specifically to China ).
And, probably, we should not forget that Russian President Vladimir Putin has already, in general, pointed out to the government that by June 1 it is necessary to submit a plan for building the infrastructure needed to reorient energy supplies from Europe to the east.
And although we all, in general, are well aware that a lot of time will pass from the beginning of planning to the implementation of projects, something else is more important here: once such processes are launched, they cannot be stopped.
And the point here, of course, is not at all in sanctions.
And the Ukrainian crisis is only a symptom here, and not the disease itself: now there will be many more of them, in all corners of the earth.
The problem here is that even Bloomberg openly calls what is happening in Europe “economic suicide” (their analyst Julian Lee analyzed this in some detail using the example of the “oil embargo” that Brussels insists on).
In the same oil, how many different "Baltic mixtures" are already manifested.
And what difference does it make to us, for example, whether Poles and Ukrainians buy gas from us directly or through Hungary and Germany.
That's all, sorry, details.
But if continental Europe brings itself to an economic catastrophe in one way or another - and with such "elites" it is moving more and more confidently along this path - it will already be, to put it mildly, extremely unpleasant.
Like any irreversible decision.
And the European gas markets may be lost not because frankly semi-mythical "American shale gas" will come there.
But because if there is no, for example, a North European industrial zone, then there will simply be no one to buy gas there.
So our movement in the direction of the Asia-Pacific region - despite the obvious unwillingness of the authorities for the time being to break with the traditional European markets - in general, is quite understandable and quite justified.
Another thing is that the reason for our reorientation to the East is not our sovereign desire, but simply the twilight of the West.
In general, a forced decision and a completely objective process.
And there is simply no need to look back at the same Europe.
They will survive, they will survive their own economic madness - well, we will work, we will not go anywhere.
Still neighbors.
And if they don’t survive - well, it will be their own decision, all with their own hands and in real time.
And in general, they say that suicides should not be pitied.
The point of view of the author may not coincide with the position of the editors.