Heat in Pakistan and India: 47.5 degrees - and even hotter

Extreme heat is actually not uncommon in South Asia.

In early summer, before the monsoon sets in, the Greater Region is transformed into a veritable glowing furnace.

This year, however, the extreme temperatures hit South Asia unexpectedly early, and a dangerous heatwave has been hanging over large parts of Pakistan and India for days.

40 degrees and more are widely reached, in the Pakistani city of Nawabshah even 47.5 degrees were measured on Wednesday.

Until Sunday, the meteorologists expect temperatures of up to 50 degrees.

An end to the heat is not in sight.

Andrew Frey

Freelance author in the science section of the Frankfurter Allgemeine Sunday newspaper.

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Many meteorologists are watching the brutal spring heat with great concern.

Comparable extreme weather conditions are usually only reached in June or July, so further escalations of heat could still follow.

In addition, the record-breaking values ​​​​are only the preliminary high point of a week-long period of much too high temperatures in South and East Asia, says Adrian Leyser from the German Weather Service.

In India, March was the second warmest since weather records began 122 years ago, with particularly high deviations in the north-west of the country.

Water is missing everywhere

The high temperatures are also a result of prolonged drought since the winter, triggered by a stable anticyclone over the northwest blocking approaching rain clouds.

It has hardly rained at all in New Delhi since March, and in the rest of the country less than a third of the usual amount of rain fell in March, according to the Indian weather service IMD.

The parched soil intensifies the heat, the lack of moisture leads to a positive feedback – the air shimmers.

The consequences for agriculture are already becoming apparent.

The wheat harvest has fallen by 10 to 35 percent and there is a lack of water everywhere.

Since India is the second largest wheat producer after China, there is a risk of further shortages in the market, which is already tense due to the Ukraine war.

But the situation is also threatening for the farmers themselves. More than half of the people make a living from agriculture, including many older people who have to till their fields despite the tormenting conditions.

The situation in the cities, where very few people have access to air-conditioned rooms, is no less stressful.

Heat and air pollution are becoming life-threatening dangers, especially for the poor and the elderly, because rest is not possible even at night.

In the densely populated districts, the temperatures don't fall below 30 degrees, and sleep is almost impossible.

One reason for the early heat wave is the La Niña weather phenomenon, which occurs irregularly in the Pacific and has been going on for a year and a half now.

The counter-movement to El Niño is disrupting the weather worldwide and typically leads to hot, dry springs in South Asia.

From Iran to western China, March and April this year were sometimes more than three degrees too warm.

Added to this is climate change.

The man-made rise in temperature is exacerbating the nagging spring heat and making it more likely.

“Before the rise in global temperatures, we would have experienced the heat India experienced this month about once in 50 years.

Now such an event occurs much more frequently - about every four years," says climate researcher Mariam Zachariah of Imperial College London.

The Indian weather authority also reports that heat waves are becoming more frequent.

In the years 2011 to 2020 there were 600 days with highs of more than 40 degrees, in the period from 1981 to 1990 there were only 413 days.

And that could be just the beginning of an unprecedented hot period in the region.

By the middle of the century, the average temperature will rise by two degrees, one degree has already been reached.

The consequences: heat waves are becoming more frequent and more intense, the monsoons are less frequent, droughts are more frequent.

In August 2021, when the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change presented its report, it predicted a “catastrophic future” for much of South Asia.

Heat and drought became more frequent, as did heavy rain and flooding.

A further aggravation of the situation by the end of the century can only be prevented if greenhouse gas emissions are reduced quickly.