• According to a study by Cevipof*, 48% of teachers would be ready to vote for Emmanuel Macron in the second round, and 22% for Marine Le Pen.

  • The tension against Jean-Michel Blanquer would therefore not crystallize in the ballot box, and the blocking vote against the RN would remain a majority reflex among teachers.

  • More generally, the electoral results since 2017 show that teachers can no longer be considered solely as a bastion of the left, with some of them refocusing or righting themselves.

Teachers are nearly 900,000 in France.

A number which makes their electoral weight important for the contenders for the Elysée, and which obliges them to provide measures for them in their program.

Some will also be debated on Wednesday evening during the great debate between Marine Le Pen and Emmanuel Macron.

This may help some to decide for one or the other candidate.

Because if the teachers are traditionally few abstentionists, they could be more so during this second round: “We can count on an increase in blank and null votes which would be around 30% among this electorate.

No doubt due to the fact that some teachers who had voted for Macron in the second round of the presidential election in 2017 will not wish to do so this time, ”explains Luc Rouban, director of research at the CNRS based on the electoral survey * of Cevipof published in March.

Lessons from the first round

This survey reveals other instructive information on the electoral behavior of teachers: in March, 55% of them intended to vote for a center or right-wing candidate in the first round (including 26% for Macron and 19 % for a candidate from the radical right) and 45% for a candidate from the left.

And which makes Luc Rouban say that teachers can no longer be considered solely as a bastion of the left: "Even if they are more to the left than the other category A civil servants, we have observed a refocusing, even a right-wing movement among them since 2017. With a Steady Growth of the Radical Right.

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An opinion nuanced by Laurent Frajerman, researcher at the Paris I social history center and at the Research Institute of the Unitary Trade Union Federation (FSU): “The majority of teachers are still center left.

But in the first round, some of them did not want to vote for Mélenchon, whose positions on the vaccine and the exit "the Republic is me" they did not appreciate... Some voted for Macron in the first round because they felt that there was a problem of political supply,” he said.

Macron would come out on top in the second round

Still according to the same Cevipof survey, projections for the second round indicate that 48% of teachers would be ready to vote for Emmanuel Macron, and 22% for Marine Le Pen.

“The intentions of the first round already showed a significant membership vote for candidate Macron.

In the second round would be added the voices of rallying to the candidate LREM to block the RN, ”comments Luc Rouban.

Predictions of good scores for the president who do not surprise Laurent Frajerman either: “This dam vote at the RN is part of the political culture of teachers.

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Moreover, although the teachers' unions are very critical of the educational policy carried out for five years by Jean-Michel Blanquer, some teachers are not opposed to it, according to Luc Rouban: “The duplication of classes in Rep was rather consensus.

And some points of the candidate's program do not displease some, such as the greater autonomy of the establishments, the increase in teachers linked to additional missions.

Especially young teachers, some of whom want individualized careers, recognition of investment…”.

Even if the high school reform undertaken by this government has not been able to convince and that the management of Covid-19 at school has caused a lot of tension internally, Laurent Frajerman also recognizes that not all teachers have been losers during this five year term :

RN on the rise

At the same time, the vote projections in favor of Marine Le Pen are up compared to 2017: 22% of teachers would vote in the second round for her, therefore, against 11% in 2017. “Knowing that this vote will be more important among school teachers and college teachers than for high school or university teachers, because their working conditions are not homogeneous”, specifies Luc Rouban.

For his part, Laurent Frajerman believes that this figure of 22% is overestimated: “The vote for the far right is very low among teachers, even if it is true that it is partly hidden.

Because the teachers in question fear being set aside by their colleagues”.

Several factors argue for a rise in RN among teachers: "In particular the self-censorship that some teachers feel they have to impose on issues related to religion, especially since the death of Samuel Paty and the trauma it caused," explains Luc Rouban.

“Marine Le Pen's de-demonization strategy has worked well.

And his communication on his wish to increase the teachers was effective”.

One thing is certain: whichever candidate wins the most votes among teachers, a heavy task will await him: "Many teachers want to turn the page on Blanquer, and the very well-attended strike of January 13 has shown the desire for change and the high expectations of teachers", concludes Laurent Frajerman.

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* Cevipof *,

Le Monde,

Fondation Jean-Jaurès, Ipsos electoral survey carried out between March 21 and 24, 2022 and covering 714 teachers.

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