"I irreversibly delegate my full powers to this presidential council."

Abd Rabbo Mansour Hadi, the president of Yemen, announced Thursday, April 7, to cede all of his powers to a presidential council to lead the country.

A controversial figure in his ranks, in exile in Saudi Arabia since 2015, he hopes to unify his camp at war against the Houthi rebels for almost eight years and move towards a peace process. 

The poorest country on the Arabian Peninsula, Yemen has been plagued since 2014 by a conflict between Houthi rebels, supported by Iran, and government forces, supported since 2015 by a military coalition led by Saudi Arabia and which notably includes the United Arab Emirates.

This war has caused one of the most serious humanitarian tragedies in the world, causing the death of nearly 380,000 people, according to the UN, and leaving millions displaced.

This political upheaval also occurred on the last day of talks on Yemen organized by the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) in Riyadh, without the presence of the Houthis who refused any dialogue in "enemy" territory. 

Hadi's departure, a new political situation? 

"Abd Rabbo Mansour Hadi was a fictitious president. He lives isolated, in exile, in a palace made available to him in Saudi Arabia", explains to France 24, François Frison-Roche, CNRS researcher specializing in Yemen.

"And he has no legitimacy. In 2012, he was elected as the only candidate. Originally, his mandate was to last two years. Since then, no election has been organized because of the fights", details the specialist.

The government camp is far from unified.

The president is contested by southern separatists, also anti-Houthists, who accuse his government of "corruption".

And on a regional scale, these southern forces are supported by the United Arab Emirates, which does not see favorably Abd Rabbo Mansour Hadi's proximity to figures of the Muslim Brotherhood, Abu Dhabi's pet peeves in the region. .

By delegating his powers, the president hopes to unify his camp.

The presidential council will thus be chaired by the former interior minister and adviser to President Hadi, Rashad Al-Alimi.

It comprises eight members: four from the north of the country and four from the south.

The group notably includes Aidarous al-Zoubaïdi, the head of the Southern Transitional Council, the political body of the southern separatists.

Other members include Tareq Saleh, the nephew of former Yemeni President Ali Abdullah Saleh, who was assassinated by the Houthis in 2017, and Sultan al-Arada, governor of Marib, the government's last stronghold in the north, at the heart of a key battle with the Houthis.

However, it is not clear whether Abd Rabbo Mansour Hadi will retain an honorary post as president or whether he will retire from political life.

"This announcement is "one of the most important changes to have occurred within the anti-Houthi bloc since the beginning of the war", greeted on Twitter Peter Salisbury, of the NGO Crisis Group. "An important change had to happen for put the parties in conflict on the path of a political process (…) This transfer of presidential powers could be this change”, abounded Elisabeth Kendalll, researcher at the University of Oxford, with AFP.

"But there is still a major question that arises: what will be the legitimacy of this presidential council? Nothing provides for this type of scenario in the Yemeni Constitution. "We remain in a legal and political fiction", nuance François Frison-Roche "Especially since it may be difficult for this heterogeneous group to work together."

The Yemeni rebels saw in the creation of this council "a desperate attempt to close the ranks of the mercenaries […] The road to peace passes through the cessation of aggression, the lifting of the blockade and the withdrawal of foreign forces from the country", reacted their spokesperson, Mohammed Abdelsalam, on Twitter.

A "symbolic" truce in the midst of a "bogging down conflict"

This decision comes a week after the entry into force of a two-month truce thanks to an agreement wrested by the United Nations from the belligerents. 

According to the agreement, the military offensives must cease, allowing the entry of oil tankers into the port of Hodeida, on the Red Sea, and the resumption of commercial flights in Sanaa.

Two towns controlled by the Houthis.

Usually, the coalition, which controls Yemen's air and sea space, only allows UN flights to land in Sanaa.

Measures denounced as a "blockade" by the Houthis. 

"We are in the period of Ramadan. There is obviously a strong symbolic significance in decreeing a truce and allowing the population to live in a climate that is a little less anxiety-provoking at this time", notes François Frison-Roche. 

"On the side of the Houthis, in particular, this also certainly responds to a need, after eight years of war, to lay down their arms temporarily and to put an end to the daily fighting," he analyzes.

"We are in a context where the conflict is bogged down. Currently, victory is not possible for either side and neither party wants to give in. Having this truce allows the belligerents to catch their breath." 

"The war in Ukraine raises fears of the worst"

On April 2, UN chief Antonio Guterres expressed hope that the truce would lead to "a political process" to settle the conflict.

For his part, François Frison-Roche is rather pessimistic: "I fear that this presidential council and this truce will not really change the situation in a war as long as this one", he believes.

"The war in Yemen is a national war, but also a regional and international one. Nothing will be settled until all the players settle together around the negotiating table." 

"Not to mention that this war is also being played out in the UN Security Council since France, the United States and the United Kingdom have financial interests there. And for now, their eyes are on Ukraine. ."

"What worries me the most is that Yemen is already in a dire humanitarian situation, and it will get even worse with the war in Ukraine. The country will not be able to cope with the rising prices, especially wheat", fears the specialist.

Yemen depends almost entirely on its food imports.

And 30% of the wheat consumed in the country comes from Ukraine, according to the United Nations Children's Fund.

"This truce, for the time that it lasts, will at least allow the arrival of oil which will be able to provide some electricity to the population and the delivery of additional food aid", he concludes. 

For its part, the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) seems to want to believe it.

In the final statement issued on Thursday evening, the participants called on the new presidential council to "enter into negotiations with the Houthis under the aegis of the United Nations to reach a comprehensive and final political settlement".

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