France has slaughtered nearly 15 million poultry since the start of the bird flu epizootic.
That's five times more than last year.
A historic and unprecedented epidemic due to the contamination of poultry farms in Pays-de-la-Loire (the second most productive region).
Today, it affects all feathered animals and not just Southwest ducks.
The actors of the sectors announce strong tensions to come on certain products (chickens, quails, guinea fowl or ducks) but no risk of shortage in sight.
Will we have to fight to have our Sunday roast chicken in the coming weeks in France?
It is in any case "the strongest point of concern" of Dominique Schelcher, the boss of System U, "in the short term".
To the point of relaying in the background the economic consequences of the war in Ukraine on the purchasing power of the French.
So why does he say that?
“During the previous avian flu in France, we slaughtered roughly more than three million poultry, here we are at more than 14 million, so indeed in the weeks to come, there will be tension on the supply poultry and eggs.
It's a reality.
It is there and it is a Franco-French subject.
The whole West is affected by this phenomenon and this part of France produces a lot.
So there will be questions of product availability, ”explained Tuesday on Radio Classique who is one of the big guns of mass distribution.
How far can this go?
Is a shortage possible?
A historic crisis from all points of view
On the ground, all the actors are in any case unanimous on the gravity of the situation.
And the words are strong: “historic”, “unprecedented”, “exceptional”… “It is quite simply the biggest avian flu crisis in our history”, sums up Maxime Chaumet, secretary general of the National Committee for the Promotion of egg (CNPO. To understand what is happening at the moment, you have to turn to Marie-Pierre Pé, the director of the Interprofessional Committee for Foie Gras Palmipeds (Cifog): "We are living in an extraordinary situation, says -her, because we had the introduction of the virus in the period of ascending migration (towards the north) in the Pays-de-la-Loire region. We had never seen this kind of contamination at this period of the In addition, this variant is extremely aggressive.
The incubation period of 5 days can go up to 8-10 days and especially the animals do not necessarily show symptoms.
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Avian flu: “Very difficult” situation in Vendée, with at least 450 contaminated farms https://t.co/Nfje9r06j5 via @20minutesplanet pic.twitter.com/eyQ49r9kJJ
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Result, while the Southwest was beginning to see the end of the tunnel, the rebound is only stronger since the epizootic has just attacked "the second largest poultry producing region and more particularly the Vendée basin" as recalled by Yann Nédélec, the director of ANVOL (Interprofession of meat poultry).
In terms of animal volume, we are in an area five times more populated in the Pays-de-la-Loire than in the South West, which explains the explosion in the number of slaughtered animals.
According to Yann Nédélec, we have just crossed the bar of 1,000 contaminated homes on March 31.
“Breeders live today with fear in their stomachs, admits Michel Queuille of the FDSEA, himself a duck breeder in Corrèze.
Right now, it's going all over the place.
The virus is bringing production to the ground.
An example, the Dordogne, which had not seen any cases of avian flu for six years, has just discovered five in the space of a few days.
For the moment, only Brittany, the largest poultry producing region, is spared but Marie-Pierre Pé warns: “If Brittany were to be affected, it would be absolutely dramatic for the sector!
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Not yet the time to talk about shortages
It remains to be seen whether this situation can quickly have consequences for consumers.
On this point, opinions differ.
Some are more alarmist than others.
For a breeder from Deux-Sèvres, “there is clearly a real risk of a shortage of eggs, chickens or ducks because the difference compared to previous years is that everything feathered is affected”.
Yann Nédélec, him, “does not think that there is a risk of shortage strictly speaking on the other hand, there can be temporary tensions on certain products like the duck of meat, the guinea fowl or the quail.
“And surely the chicken if the epidemic continues its way.
Michel Queuille points to another possible repercussion in the coming weeks.
"We could also lose terribly in quality because if this continues, we may have to increase imports and I can tell you that a chicken from our country has nothing to do with a Brazilian or even Polish chicken.
In France, one out of two chickens consumed is imported.
Professionals point out in passing that other major poultry producing countries are also heavily affected by the bird flu epizootic, not forgetting Ukraine where everything is at a standstill.
On the other hand, there would be no need to worry about Easter.
Everyone should have eggs in their omelet.
Maxime Chaumet of the CNPO wants to “reassure people”: “We have 50 million hens in France and we are the leading egg producer in Europe [15 billion per year].
Yes, we have a tight market but there is no risk of shortage!
On the other hand, we will have tensions for several months, it will last.
But the egg will never become a luxury product.
If there are increases, they will be marginal and above all they will be above all due to the increase in the cost of production with the increase in agricultural materials [food represents 65% of the cost of production]”.
It could take many months
In the meantime, everyone is on the alert and it is not always easy to manage.
“Beyond the epidemic, for us, the difficult thing in recent days has been to get back into battle order”, recognizes Marie Griffaton, breeder of organic laying hens in Cunège, in the Dordogne.
Overall, all the players in the sectors are wondering about their future.
For Corrézien Michel Queuille “the question today is how we are going to recover from this episode.
How are we going to restart.
For us, nearly 80% of farms dedicated to hatching [reproduction] are affected in Vendée.
I'm very, very worried."
The rules are also often very strict.
The crawl space, which can extend over several kilometres, lasts a good month after the last slaughter.
But, as cases continue to be detected,
At best, there will be no return to normal before mid-2023 for most professions.
Sunday roast chicken is well on borrowed time.
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Agriculture