African oil production is quite stable.

It has fluctuated between eight and ten million barrels per day for decades.

There are many countries that are in a situation of chronic decline in production.

This is the case of Gabon, Cameroon, Equatorial Guinea,

And there are countries which are in a situation of chronic under-investment, but therefore the geology is good.

This is the case of Algeria and Nigeria.

The novelty is that there are countries that will go into production.

This is the case of Uganda and Côte d'Ivoire with the discovery of “Baleine” which is a deposit of more than a billion barrels, therefore very significant.

This is also the case of Namibia, a few weeks ago, where several billion barrels were developed by Total on the one hand and Shell on the other.

These countries have significant deposits, but not enough to change the global dynamic.

Algeria is almost incapable of exporting more, because it has had stable, even stagnant production for at least a decade, with national consumption exploding.

So basically they produce 80 billion cubic meters a year, and they consume forty-five of that.

So the exportable margin gradually decreases

Nigeria will increase its gas production from 23 to 30 million tons in four or five years, but it is not very significant.

In fact, the bulk of the increase in production will come from Mozambique, where Total's project will certainly start again from next June due to an improved security situation thanks to the Rwandan army.

And this is only the first step of a huge project in fact.

The capacity of a country like Mozambique is about sixty million tonnes per year, which is equivalent to three quarters of the current capacity of Qatar, which is the world's leading LNG exporter.

Nigeria has Africa's largest export capacity in terms of gas.

The problem is the ability of the actors to be able to release this gas.

And there,

it is a real problem due to extremely difficult governance and recurring security problems.

But in any case, the gas is there