To solve the problem of structural shortages, we must establish a "big food concept", that is, starting from better meeting the people's needs for a better life, grasping the changing trend of the people's food structure, and ensuring the supply of food, meat, vegetables, fruits, aquatic products, etc. All kinds of food are effectively supplied, and nothing can be lacking.
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International organizations such as the United Nations World Food Program recently issued a warning that under the multiple blows of global climate change, regional conflicts, and the continued epidemic, the global food price index in February 2022 averaged 140.7 points, a year-on-year increase of 24.1%, a record high, 38 44 million people in this country are teetering on the brink of famine.
In response to this crisis, Ukraine, Hungary, Argentina and other countries have successively issued grain export bans, and some countries are buying large quantities of grain from the international market. The European Union is also preparing the first agricultural crisis disposal fund in history, with a total scale of 1.5 billion euros. , and plans to free up nearly 4 million hectares of fallow land to grow crops.
As a big country with a population of more than 1.4 billion, how can we keep the bottom line of food security and keep the Chinese people's jobs firmly in our own hands?
A global food crisis may be coming
Mu Yueying, a professor at the School of Economics and Management of China Agricultural University, believes that since the spread of the new crown pneumonia, factors such as labor shortages, food supply interruptions and rising transportation costs have affected the food production of many countries, and the continued tension in Russia and Ukraine is even more To make matters worse, it will further have a greater impact on the global food supply system, causing large fluctuations in international food prices.
Mu Yueying gave a set of data: As of February 2022, from the monthly price index, the prices of corn and soybeans in the international market have continued to rise for half a year, with an average monthly growth rate of 5.23% and 5.61%, respectively. Fluctuations are high, with an average month-on-month rise of about 10% in the past three months, while wheat rose 22.7% in February this year compared to January.
With fertile black land, Ukraine and Russia are known as one of the "granaries of the world".
Mu Yueying pointed out that Russia is the world's largest exporter of wheat, and Ukraine ranks first in the world in export of sunflower oil, and the export of wheat between the two countries accounts for about one-third of global exports.
In 2021, the exports of sunflower oil from the two countries will account for about 80% of global exports.
According to the forecast of Ukraine's agricultural policy department, the sown area in Ukraine may decrease by 30% due to the conflict between Russia and Ukraine.
French President Emmanuel Macron has called it an "unprecedented" food crisis. The conflict between Russia and Ukraine has made it difficult for many countries to obtain normal supplies of wheat and cereals. The situation will become more severe in the next year to one and a half years, or will endanger Food security for millions of people around the world.
Low- and middle-income countries, including Africa, the Middle East and Southeast Asia, are most dependent on Russia and Ukraine for food supplies and will be hit particularly hard. For example, more than half of Lebanon and 42% of Tunisia's wheat imports come from Ukraine.
In recent days, many countries have restricted exports and imposed sanctions on each other, which has caused market concerns. The average price of wheat on the Chicago Board of Trade has risen from $6.93 per bushel in 2021 to over $11 per bushel.
On the other hand, Mu Yueying analyzed that oil and natural gas are the main raw materials for chemical fertilizers and pesticides in agricultural materials. The sharp rise in energy prices caused by the escalation of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine means that the cost of food production has increased sharply, which has a direct impact on the international market prices of agricultural products. .
Data show that since the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, some fertilizers have risen by as much as 40%, which has brought agricultural difficulties to grain farmers around the world and also brought challenges to China's food supply security.
Structural shortages are highlighted
The turbulent international situation has made structural shortages a prominent problem to be solved urgently in my country's food security, among which the excessive dependence on soybeans is a serious problem.
According to China Customs statistics, since 2016, China's annual soybean imports have accounted for about 60% of the world's soybean trade.
Data from the National Bureau of Statistics shows that my country's soybean production in 2021 will be 16.4 million tons, equivalent to 17% of soybean imports in the same year, and the self-sufficiency rate of soybean oil is low.
Imported soybeans are mainly used for oil extraction and feed protein, aiming to make up for structural shortages and optimize the supply structure. It is a necessary adjustment. However, according to the recent tightening of international soybean supply, "to solve the problems of China's more than one billion people. Regarding the issue of food, we should not place too much hope on the international market, and the internal focus will be the bottom line that must always be adhered to to ensure national food security.” said Li Tianxiang, an associate professor at the School of Economics and Management of Nanjing Agricultural University and a researcher at the Jin Shanbao Institute of Agricultural Modernization Development.
This year's government work report, the No. 1 document of the Central Committee and the No. 1 document of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs all clearly call for increasing the production capacity of soybeans and oilseeds. Tang Renjian, Director of the Office of the Central Rural Work Leading Group and Minister of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, pointed out that it is necessary to make great efforts to adjust the structure and reduce the production capacity. Determined to expand the production of soybeans and oilseeds, and actively restore the soybean planting area in the Northeast. "One mu is one mu if you can grow more, and one kilogram is more if you harvest it. The 'oil bottle' contains as much Chinese oil as possible."
Zheng Fengtian, a professor at the School of Agriculture and Rural Development of Renmin University of China, said that this year, the country is focusing on two major preparations. One is to promote the "soybean and corn belt compound planting" model of more than 15 million mu in 16 provinces across the country, using soybean belts and corn belts. Intercropping and intercropping, making full use of the advantages of high-level crops and corn side rows, expanding the space for low-level crops, realizing crop synergy, double harvest in one season, and alternating crop rotation between years, effectively solving the problem of land competition between the two.
Tang Renjian said that the planting area of the national pilot test has reached more than 7 million mu, and the planting model and planting technology have basically matured. This year, the service of varieties and agricultural machinery and agronomy will be strengthened.
Compared with the net crop of corn, the yield of corn per mu is equivalent, but the yield of soybean can be increased by 100-150 kg. Soybean also has the function of nitrogen fixation and fertilization, and the application of pure nitrogen fertilizer can be reduced by 4-6 kg per mu of land.
Recently, in Huanghuaihai, southwest, northwest, northeast and other places, relevant departments and agricultural technicians have begun to implement it quickly, teaching farmers to learn agricultural machinery and agronomy to prepare.
Jiangsu Province adhered to the idea of "one county (field), one strategy" to complete the promotion task of 600,000 mu issued by the state; Heilongjiang Province made it clear that in principle, the subsidy for soybean producers is higher than the subsidy for corn producers by about 200 yuan per mu; Jilin Province established soybean plant expansion. Demonstration counties and high-yield demonstration counties strive to increase the soybean planting area by more than 800,000 mu compared with last year.
Zheng Fengtian emphasized that to solve the problem of structural shortages, it is necessary to establish a "big food concept", that is, to better meet the needs of the people for a better life, to grasp the changing trend of the people's food structure, and to ensure the supply of food while ensuring meat, vegetables and fruits. , aquatic products and other kinds of food are effectively supplied, and nothing can be done without it.
This year's No. 1 Central Document puts the grain production and the supply of important agricultural products in the first place. Among them, the deployment of soybean and oilseed production capacity, accelerating the expansion of beef and mutton and dairy production, and improving the quality of fishery development is the "big food". A concrete manifestation of the concept.
China has the confidence to respond
"The grains are basically self-sufficient, and the rations are absolutely safe." In response to the conflict between Russia and Ukraine and the global food shortage, Mu Yueying believes that China has the confidence to win this food "defense war".
Zheng Fengtian also said that the impact of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict on China's grain is basically negligible, and the fluctuation of international food prices has a limited impact on my country and is still under the control of the country.
Where does this confidence come from?
"With grain in hand, don't panic." According to data, my country's total grain output in 2021 will be 1,365.7 billion catties, an increase of 26.7 billion catties over 2020. Grain production has achieved "eighteen consecutive abundances", and my country's per capita grain share has been high for many consecutive years. With the international food safety standard line of 400 kilograms, the self-sufficiency rate of rations has reached 100%, making the "dream of enjoying the cool under the grass" close at hand.
Since the founding of New China, the central and local governments have been continuously improving grain reserves and increasing the effective storage capacity of grain to ensure food security.
At present, China Grain Storage has established more than 980 directly affiliated warehouses and sub-warehouses across the country, covering 90% of the country's prefecture-level cities and 95% of the counties in 13 major grain producing areas. One-fifth of the warehouse capacity, builds the storage and regulation network system of the "granary of a great country".
Qin Yuyun, a spokesman for the State Administration of Grain and Material Reserves, said recently that domestic grain inventories have always been at a relatively high level, and the material basis for regulation is very solid. In addition to sufficient raw grain reserves, there are currently 36 large and medium-sized cities and market-volatile areas where the finished grain and oil stocks are guaranteed. Ability is more than 20 days.
In general, a grain emergency security system covering processing, supply, distribution, storage and transportation has been basically established. As of now, there are 5,507 grain emergency processing enterprises and 45,939 grain supply outlets nationwide.
On the other hand, it is thanks to my country's long-term policy of attaching great importance to agricultural development. For example, the central government has successively issued 19 No. 1 documents to guide the work of "agriculture, rural areas and farmers". Compared with the fluctuations in the international grain market, my country's grain prices have generally remained stable in recent years. Stable, with small fluctuations within a reasonable range.
"With the certainty of stable domestic production and supply, we can deal with the uncertainty of the external environment." Li Keqiang, member of the Standing Committee of the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee and Premier of the State Council, pointed out when he inspected the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs recently.
In terms of ensuring this year's grain planting, affected by extreme weather last year, my country's winter wheat was sown late for about half a month, and the growth of seedlings was very complicated, but there are also some favorable conditions for summer grain production.
Tang Renjian once said that he is confident of winning a bumper summer grain harvest and ensuring that this year's grain output will remain above 1.3 trillion catties.
Recently, the central government has also allocated 20 billion yuan of funds to provide a one-time subsidy to farmers who actually grow grains, so as to alleviate the impact of increased expenditure on grain production caused by rising prices of agricultural materials, stabilize farmers' income, and arouse farmers' enthusiasm for growing grain.
On March 25, the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs and the Ministry of Finance clarified the key tasks of grain production in 2022 and comprehensively implemented a package of support policies such as incentives and finance, requiring all localities to go all out to ensure a bumper harvest of summer grain and wheat, do everything possible to expand soybean oil crops, and keep an eye on them. Ensure stable prices and supply of agricultural materials, and do a good job in agricultural disaster prevention, mitigation and relief without slack.
A few days ago, under the overall arrangement of the National Development and Reform Commission, the Ministry of Finance and other departments, the first batch of more than 3 million tons of spring fertilizer reserves in 2022 has been put into the market, and a large number of reserve fertilizers will be put on the market in succession.
China Youth Daily, China Youth Daily reporter Wei Wan Source: China Youth Daily