[Original analysis] Invasion of Ukraine from space March 29, 18:00
It's been more than a month since Russia's military invasion of Ukraine began.
In the world, criticisms of Russian military attacks are increasing day by day.
The symbol of the indiscriminate attack was a satellite image of the destroyed theater in eastern Mariupol from space.
We analyze more than 100 satellite images taken in Ukraine based on information released by the Ukrainian government and the United Nations.
Then, the damage to private facilities and the actual situation of Russia's military invasion became apparent.
(NHK Special "Ukraine Deepening Crisis-" Putin's War "Citizens Now-" Interview Group)
Even if you write "children"
The theater was in the square in the center of Mariupol.
The building, which has a history of more than 60 years, collapsed on March 16 after being hit by a missile.
This is a satellite image of the theater before and after the attack.
What attracted the world's attention was the satellite image taken two days before the attack.
Before and after the theater with a red roof, you can see that the Russian word "Дети (Jech) = children" is written in large letters.
The theater was a symbol of the city, where various stages such as plays for children were usually held, and it also became a meeting place for citizens.
According to officials from the Ukrainian government and facilities, about 1,000 people, including children, women and the elderly, have been evacuated to theaters and basements after the intensified attacks by the Russian army.
The footage of the inside of the theater before the attack showed a large number of people huddling together in the absence of light.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said yesterday that more than 130 people were rescued from the collapsed theater, while hundreds were still trapped and under debris, making rescue operations difficult.
On the 25th, the local city council announced that "about 300 people may have died."
Although the Russian side has denied the attack, this satellite image has had a great impact on the world.
At an emergency meeting held at the United Nations Security Council on the 17th immediately after the attack, US Ambassador Thomas Greenfield said, "By the theater, the words" children "in Russian white letters that can be seen from the sky are written. However, the Russian army that attacked was still liable for the atrocities, "and criticisms from Western countries continued.
Since the satellite image shows that the roof of the house around the theater is also destroyed, it has been pointed out that "the Russian army may be attacking indiscriminately."
The actual state of the attack that satellite images tell
War also has rules to follow.
International rules such as the Geneva Convention called "International Humanitarian Law" stipulate that even during the war, the targets of attacks are limited to combatants and military facilities, and civilian facilities and civilians must not be attacked. If you violate it, you may be accused of war crimes.
How well are these rules obeyed by Russia's military invasion?
Analyzing many satellite images of central Mariupol and identifying the location and type of buildings revealed that various private facilities were extensively damaged.
The first thing that stood out was the attack on residential areas.
Many apartments are lined up in Mariupol's city, which has a population of over 400,000, but satellite images capture the roofs of the houses being burnt down and the walls being severely damaged.
There were also facilities such as schools near these houses.
You can see the school playground and basketball court on the left side, but I found that there is a nursery school in addition to the school in this corner.
The damage to the building is not clear from the black smoke, but the United Nations says that at least eight schools in the city have been confirmed to have been damaged based on satellite images.
Damage to commercial facilities has also been revealed.
At least two large shopping malls in the city were completely destroyed, even if we could confirm.
According to the ICRC = International Committee of the Red Cross, which is active locally, Mariupol is completely surrounded by the Russian army, so logistics etc. are cut off and there is a shortage of food and drinking water, but commercial facilities are damaged. It seems that the shortage of goods in the city was further exacerbated by the reception.
Also, the attacks on medical facilities such as hospitals have been particularly strongly criticized.
Satellite images confirm that at least two hospitals in the city have been damaged.
This is a general hospital responsible for community medicine in Mariupol.
I was attacked on March 9th.
You can see that the outer wall of the central building containing the obstetrics department is severely damaged.
Russia immediately claimed that "the hospital had no patients or medical personnel," but local officials announced that three people, including a girl, had died in the hospital.
According to the Associated Press, the rescued pregnant woman and fetus also died thereafter.
Satellite images also captured damage to another hospital about 2 kilometers northeast.
This is a hospital with intensive care facilities.
You can see how the outer wall is scorched.
About this hospital, the Ukrainian government announced on the 16th that "Russian troops occupied it and about 400 people including patients and medical staff were taken hostage."
It means that the Russian army is shooting from the inside of the hospital to the outside, making it difficult to evacuate the surrounding residents.
Mariupol's key point communication did not reach
Why is there such a fierce battle in Mariupol?
Looking at the war situation since the beginning of the military invasion, we can see that Mariupol has been sandwiched by Russian troops from east and west and has been completely surrounded since March.
Mariupol in eastern Donetsk Oblast faces the Sea of Azov and is a port city that has prospered since ancient times in the export of coal and steel.
With this military invasion, it can be said that it is a strategic strategic point for the Russian army located on the line connecting Crimean and mainland Russia, which was annexed unilaterally in 2014.
Regarding Mariupol, Ukraine's Foreign Minister Kleba emphasizes its importance, saying, "Russian troops are trying to occupy at great cost, but Ukraine will be cut off from the Sea of Azov."
Infrastructure such as water, electricity, and gas has stopped in the city, and a serious humanitarian crisis continues.
Furthermore, from data from smartphones and other devices, we also learned that it is difficult to connect to the Internet in the city.
We created a video that reflects the communication situation in the city from February 20th to mid-March before the invasion of the Russian army on a map.
Red → orange → yellow → blue are displayed in descending order of traffic.
Since the start of the military invasion on the 24th, the amount of communication has gradually decreased, and it has decreased significantly in March when the Russian army's attacks intensified.
Almost no communication can be seen.
According to the local people, it is difficult to communicate unless you go to a hill, but it is virtually impossible to communicate because the bombardment continues and many people are evacuating underground.
There is also information that the communication infrastructure was damaged by the attack of the Russian army, and it turned out that it was isolated in terms of information.
The Russian army convoy approaching the capital
Satellite images also reveal the size and movement of the Russian army.
This is an image of the suburbs of the capital Kyiv on February 28th.
Even in the area shown, you can see that military vehicles are lining up for more than 2 kilometers.
Tanks, artillery units, supply vehicles, and more.
In fact, on February 22, two days before the invasion, more than 100 convoys were captured.
The location is near the airport on the Belarusian side, only 40 kilometers from the Ukrainian border.
Russia said it would hold a joint military exercise with its alliance Belarus until February 20, but it seems that it continued to expand near the border after that.
It can be seen that preparations were being made carefully before the invasion of Ukraine.
And on the 27th after the start of the military invasion, it was located about 70 km northwest of the center of Kyiv.
The next day, the 28th, it was approaching about 30 kilometers.
Satellite images show that Russian troops are still reorganizing their troops while continuing to fight Ukrainian troops near Kyiv.
It is believed that the US military also obtained this information on its own artificial satellite and provided it to the Ukrainian military.
Expert "War with satellite imagery as evidence"
Professor Mitsuru Fukuda of the Faculty of Crisis Management, Nihon University, who specializes in security and intelligence research, points out the changes in the role of satellite imagery in such battles.
According to Professor Fukuda, satellite images so far have been used mainly by the parties to the war to grasp the position of the enemy and determine the location of the attack, and have not been released to the public.
However, with the development of satellite technology even in private companies, high-quality satellite images can now be viewed on the Internet.
As this military invasion takes on the appearance of information warfare, satellite images have a great influence on international public opinion as objective evidence.
Professor Mitsuru Fukuda, Faculty of Crisis Management, Nihon University
"This is the first time that live images such as damage on the battlefield have been shown to the world in real time through TV and SNS. Even if it is false, it continues to insist as true and tries to hide the reality of the war. However, with the development of satellite technology and a certain degree of trust as being objective, the image will be released. This is evidence for many in the world to understand that "Russia is the invading side." Isn't this the first war in which the value of satellite images as evidence of the situation was recognized? "
In Ukraine, fighting continues in various parts of the world.
Sometimes information from the battlefield is blocked and sometimes counteracted by other information, making it difficult to tell what is true.
Nevertheless, we would like to continue our efforts to approach the truth while making full use of various information and tools such as satellite images.
International Department Reporter
Tamura Galaxy
Covers Europe and Russia
In charge of analysis of satellite images and local coverage
Yuta Takahashi ,
Director, Large-scale Planning and Development Center
Producing digital-related programs such as NHK Special "Digital VS. Real" In
charge of analysis and supervision of satellite images and videos on SNS
Network news department reporter
Naoya Saito In
charge of communication status coverage and data processing
Also handles IT / net field coverage and SNS analysis
Masato Morita
, Director of Network News Department
In charge of data analysis and visualization in the data visualization team "NMAPS"
Motoki Tanaka
, Director, Network News Department
In charge of data analysis and visualization in the data visualization team "NMAPS"