Oscars 2022 Pool: What Should Happen and What Will Probably Happen

• Oscar Awards Oscar Nominations 2022: Full list of nominees

• Oscar Awards Oscar 2022 |

  Where to see the nominated films on Netflix, HBO Max, Movistar...

It's been a weird year.

Rarer even than the previous one.

If the last edition of the

was marked by the ravages of the pandemic.

This same, but in another way and in the middle of a new disaster.

The theaters finally opened, but they closed again.

At last the box office recovered, but badly.

The festivals finally started, but not all of them.

And in this chaos of paradigms that are renewed and eras that die, the Oscar ceremony that nobody cares about, but that everyone follows, and that is despised with the same passion that is tweeted, suddenly appears in all its misery and splendor.

Faced with the austerity of the gala directed by Steven Soderbergh, this year's wants to be a waste of presenters

performances and news.

spread across the planet will be in charge of choosing between 10 candidates (the ten are back) for the film of the year.

And so, macro productions like

are faced with micro (and in Japanese) like '

Regina Hall, Amy Schumer and Wanda Sykes.AFP

When it comes to movies, the dog, bark or not, is the key.

The penultimate year that she played dog in the Chinese horoscope was 1994. Then, it was also the penultimate time that

achieved the nomination for best direction for her work in

tie ropes

Her 12 nominations for

place her very close to the 14 that mark her record and point her out, without a doubt, as the production of the year.

Be that as it may, the gala from Sunday to Monday will serve to seal a full year marked by titles, along with that of Campion, such as the exercise of freedom of

the punctuated wisdom of

or the exuberance of

All this without counting, the four and historical Spanish nominations.

We review category by category.

Image from 'Licorice Pizza', by Paul Thomas Anderson.

Best film

Who should win:

by Paul Thomas Anderson.

Who will win:

'

', by Sian Heder, or '

by Jane Campion.

Suddenly,

.

Suddenly, the movie that no one seemed to be counting on.

On February 27, the prizes distributed by the actors placed the production signed by Sian Heder on everyone's lips.

Someone wanted to see in her something like the soul of time.

'

', they call it.

What better than the story of a deaf and dumb family that deals with overcoming, harmony and resilience (that word that Sánchez likes so much) to represent us all at this precise moment of pessimism, discord and foot pain (which must be the opposite of resilience)?

And so on until it became the favorite of the producers, reproducing the same wave that accompanied

' Two years ago.

Problem: It's very mediocre.

It would be sad that in a year like this, of so much and so good cinema, this was awarded.

Before we went crazy and a bit stale,

was the undisputed favorite.

That's right.

His tumultuous review of masculinity through the '

' that annoys some so much proposes, this time, an authentic x-ray of us now.

But in any case, if it comes to choosing, the wonder that

by Paul Thomas Anderson represents, as a cinema happy to recover for the gaze the grace of discovery, freedom and life should be, in a just world, the Better option.

Director Jane Campion.AFP

Best Direction

Who Should Win:

Jane Campion for "

. "

Who will win:

Jane Campion for

In this category there is little chance for us to get angry.

The data is there: it is the second time that she appears and, if she wins, Campion would be the third woman after Kathryn Bigelow and Chloé Zhao to do so.

And then there is the evidence.

Few exercises in cinema are so conscious, so careful, so groundbreaking and respectful of tradition at the same time.

' more than a movie to watch is a movie to dive into.

Penélope Cruz with the Volpi Cup in Venice.EFE

Best actress

Who should win:

Penélope Cruz for

', by Pedro Almodóvar.

Who will win:

Jessica Chastain for "The Eyes of Tammy Faye," by Michael Showalter.

The actors, who are the majority among the voters, have stayed with Jessica Chastain, who was already nominated for

in 2011. At first, it seems like the most uncertain category.

None of the films represented is among the ten nominees for best film.

Be that as it may, Chastain's hyper-makeup histrionics in '

pales before the superb display of Penélope Cruz in '

for which he was already recognized at the Venice Film Festival where Olivia Colman and Kristen Stewart were also present, rivals then in the Lido and rivals now in Los Angeles.

Javier Bardem in a moment of 'Ser los Ricardo'.

best Actor

Who Should Win:

Benedict Cumberbatch for "

by Jane Campion.

Who will win:

Will Smith `for

by Reinaldo Marcus Green.

It's hard to see an actor awarded for his work in an infuriatingly conventional film.

If nobody fixes it and judging by the accumulated list of winners, Will Smith will appear in the next

program with the same smile and an Oscar, the first on the third attempt.

And all because of

', the film that tells the incredible story of the Williams sisters, the two women, through the man who made everything possible.

can't deal with

one after the other.

And all this, the year in which Cumberbatch transforms into Brando (or Day-Lewis) to offer a huge, obsessive and electrifying performance in '

'.

There are no options for Javier Bardem this time that he should be nominated for

' rather than

Ariana DeBose in 'West Side Story'.

Best Supporting Actress

Who should win:

Kirsten Dunst for

by Jane Campion.

Who will win:

Ariana DeBose for

Steven Spielberg's "

Strictly speaking, this Oscar should be split in two.

Ariana DeBose is more of a force of nature at the same height as a tornado rather than just an actress.

She dances and the world stops spinning.

It is so.

Her work in '

alone justifies the

entire '

She would be the first black and publicly gay actress to achieve it, and the second time the Oscar has gone to the same character.

She already won it for the same, or almost, Rita Moreno.

But it is true that what Kirsten Dunst does in

both expands and refutes one of the most brilliant careers in contemporary cinema in any register and with any director.

Trys Kotsur and Marlee Matlin in 'CODA'.

Best Supporting Actor

Who Should Win:

Troy Kotsur for Sian Heder's '

'.

Who will win:

Troy Kotsur for Sian Heder's '

'.

Here yes.

Here it does make sense to give space and time to '

from the hand of an actor so full of words and reasons (although they are not heard) as Kotsur.

For what he does and for what he keeps silent.

It will be the second time, after what was achieved by Marlee Matlin in '

that a deaf interpreter makes himself heard (and sorry for the easy thing).

Best Original Screenplay

Who Should Win:

Paul Thomas Anderson for

Who will win:

Paul Thomas Anderson for '

Eight times so far (11 with this edition) Paul Thomas Anderson has been nominated for an Oscar.

This would be the fifth in which a libretto of his is eligible for a prize.

Beyond the figures, and despite the fact that the screenwriters themselves, very clueless, chose Adam McKay for '

and the critics, on a bad afternoon, Kenneth Branagh for '

', what matters is the exuberance and freedom with which the American imagines a free and exuberant adolescence.

More than written, the text of '

is danced.

Best Adapted Screenplay

Who should win:

Rysusuke Hamaguchi for '

Who will win:

Jane Campion for

or Sian Heder for '

'.

What Hamaguchi achieves by reinventing the Murakami universe and making it his own in '

is, without a doubt, the paradigm of an adapted script: succeeding in doing the same thing, but completely different.

Campion follows more the tradition of self-absorbed respect for the powerful voice of the original signed by Thomas Savage in

And Heder changes in '

' the panorama that surrounds the original story of

, taking it from the original France to deep North America.

Three strategies, a single monument: that of Hamaguchi.

Alberto Iglesias is nominated for the music of 'Parallel Mothers'.ANTONIO HEREDIA

Best music

Who should win:

Alberto Iglesias for '

Pedro Almodovar.

Who will win:

Hans Zimmer for

Denis Villeneuve's

or Jonny Greenwood for Jane Campion 's

Rarely has a category been so overwhelming.

Each soundtrack follows a different strategy and all of them make music the protagonist.

What Hans Zimmer does in 'Dune' is basically an exercise in reinvention and expansion.

Jonny Greenwood, who competes for

but also signs

', blurs each shot until it is filled with new perspectives.

And then there is the meticulous and perfect work of Alberto Iglesias who, as he says, more than giving each word of

' a particular echo, broadens its meaning.

A moment from 'Drive my car', by Rysusuke Hamaguchi.

best international film

Who should win:

, by Ryusuke Hamaguchi.

Who will win:

, by Rysuke Hamaguchi or

by Joachim Trier.

Let's start by contradicting ourselves.

'

' is the movie of the year.

After exciting in Cannes, Hamaguchi appears in up to three categories and all among the most important (director, screenplay and this one).

It is true that

by Joaquim Trier, does not miss a step and in addition to opting for a script on the verge of making its protagonist, Renate Reinsve, sneak in among the nominated actresses.

Actress of the year is already her.

Alberto Mielgo is nominated for the animated short 'The wiper'.

best animated short

Who should win:

'

by Alberto Mielgo.

Who will win:

, by Dan Ojari and Michael Please.

It's already sad that the only one sponsored by Netflix will win.

The fact that the Aardman factory is behind it makes

difficult to beat.

All the shorts in this category surprise and move, but only

', by Alberto Mielgo, dares to do more, to take animation very close to the last frontier, whatever it may be.

An image from 'Flee', by Jonas Poher Rasmussen.

best animated film

Who should win:

'

', by Jonas Poher Rasmussen.

Who will win:

'

,' by Jared Bush, Byron Howard and Charise Castro Smith, or '

by Michael Rianda, Jeff Rowe.

Beyond the preferences of the raffle of the previous prizes, which until now have been alternating the Disney musical '

' with the hooligan fantasy '

, the only disparate option and, therefore, the best is '

', an animated film that is also a documentary (it is also nominated there), but above all it is one of those sincere illuminations that make cigars so nervous.

Image from 'Summer of Soul'.

best documentary

Who should win:

'

', by Questlove.

Who will win:

, by Questlove.

Few films rescued from the past explode in the present as well as '

a marvel of pride, revolution and rhythm.

Exciting, surprising and very, very danceable.

best photography

Who should win:

Ari Wegner, for "

Who will win:

Greig Fraser, for '

'.

Fraser's work in photography, like Zimmer's in music, is intended for the viewer to walk the dunes of Arrakis.

a prodigy

However, far from the spectacular hammering, what Wegner achieves in

She would be the first woman to win in this category.

Best song

Who should win:

Van Morrison for '

from '

'.

Who will win:

Billie Eilish and Finneas O'Connell for '

,' from

Impossible to clarify.

Here Van Morrison, Beyoncé, Billie Eilish, Lin-Manuel Miranda (pay attention to

) and Diane Warren compete.

That is, Van Morrison.

Javier Bardem in 'Dune', by Denis Villeneuve.

best montage

Who should win:

Joe Walker for

Denis Villeneuve's '

Who will win:

Joe Walker for

Denis Villenueve's '

The previous awards put Joe Walker, the right-hand man of 'Dune' director Denis Villeneuve, with the same options as Pamela Martin for

The complexity of joining and separating beats in '

' should leave few options in doubt.

Best hair and makeup

Who should win:

Mike Marino, Stacey Morris, Carla Farmer for

Craig Brewer's

Who will win:

Linda Dowds, Stephanie Ingram, Justine Raleigh for Michael Showalter

.

Linda Dowds, Stephanie Ingram and Justine Raleigh sign the transformation of Jessica Chastain in the televangelist of yore.

Few options for anyone else.

But be careful, what Mike Marino, Stacey Morris and Carla Farmer do with the face of Eddie Murphy in

is not far behind either.

What's more, if you put Chastain and Murphy together in makeup for their respective movies, it's impossible to know who is who.

best wardrobe

Who should win:

Jacqueline West for Denis Villeneuve's '

'.

Who will win:

Jenny Beavan for Craig Gillespie's '

'.

A film about fashion is for a costume designer the same as it is for a child on a Sunday afternoon: there is no way to see the end of it.

Jenny Beavan, who has already won twice, repeats her glamorous apocalyptic taste in '

'.

Now the Fremen costumes in '

' deserve a category all their own.

Production design.

Who should win:

Patrice Vermette, Zsuzsanna Sipos for Denis Villeneuve's

.

Who will win:

Patrice Vermette, Zsuzsanna Sipos for Denis Villenueve's

.

There is no way to contradict this perfect reconstruction of Frank Herbert's universe.

better sound

Who should win:

Tod A. Maitland, Gary Rydstrom, Brian Chumney, Andy Nelson, Shawn Murphy for

Steven Spielberg's '

Who will win:

Mac Ruth, Mark Mangini, Theo Green, Doug Hemphill, Ron Bartlett for Denis Villenueve's

.

The sound right now is the battlefield.

The difference between the cinema and the living room is marked by the ability of the ear to make us travel.

The one in '

', which has been applauded wherever it has been presented, is memorable, but the game of voices and spaces in

' alone justifies Spielberg's extravagance of repeating a classic.

Best special effects

Who should win:

Paul Lambert, Tristan Myles, Brian Connor, Gerd Nefzer for Denis Villeneuve's

.

Who will win:

Paul Lambert, Tristan Myles, Brian Connor, Gerd Nefzer for Dennis Villeneuve's

.

Spider-man

, suck on that.

Incontestable the blow of sand in the face.

Best fiction short

Who should win:

'

', by Martin Strange-Hansen.

Who will win:

by Maria Brendle.

Strange-Hansen's story of love and karaoke is irresistible.

'

on the other hand, is a moving drama signed by the Swiss Maria Brendle of a Kyrgyz woman who flees from tradition, from the past and from herself who reaches the Oscars after winning everything.

Best Documentary Short

Who Should Win:

'

by Elizabeth Mirzaei, Gulistan Mirzaei.

Who will win:

'

by Ben Proudfoot

The only (exciting and accurate) non-American but Afghan documentary nominated is well deserving of an Oscar.

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Oscars 2022 Awards Oscar 2022 Nominations: Full list of nominees

Oscar Awards 2022 Oscar Nominations: Full list of nominees

Oscar Awards 2022 Alberto Iglesias: "Music, before image quality, is the best reason to defend the movie theater"

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