Xinhua News Agency, Hong Kong, March 22 News Analysis: Hong Kong's economy remains positive in the medium and long term
Xinhua News Agency reporter Huang Qiantian
Hong Kong's recent export, employment and other economic data have not performed well. Industry analysts believe that multiple internal and external factors have led to a slowdown in Hong Kong's economic recovery, but the mainland's economy has maintained a stable growth rate, and the medium and long-term fundamentals have remained positive. On the premise, with the steady implementation of the measures taken by the SAR government to relieve people's hardships, Hong Kong will gradually regain its economic growth momentum.
The latest unemployment rate announced by the SAR government (December last year to February this year) rose to 4.5%, an increase of 0.6% from November last year to January this year, the largest increase in more than a year and a half, and the number of unemployed reached 157,000 The underemployment rate jumped 0.5% to 2.3%, the highest level in more than six months.
According to data released by the Hong Kong Trade Development Council, Hong Kong's export index in the first quarter of 2022 was 24.7, down 12.5 points from the previous quarter, and fell for three consecutive quarters.
Caused by resonance of internal and external factors
When commenting on the latest unemployment figures, Law Chi-kwong, Secretary of the Bureau of Labor and Welfare of the SAR Government, said that due to the impact of the fifth wave of the new crown pneumonia epidemic, the labor market has deteriorated sharply and will continue to be under pressure in the short term.
The relief measures adopted by the SAR government should provide some support, and the future development will depend on how the epidemic situation in Hong Kong evolves.
The epidemic has hit many industries in Hong Kong.
From December last year to February this year, the unemployment rate in Hong Kong's major economic sectors has risen.
In terms of unemployment rate, the construction, retail, accommodation and catering services, and arts, entertainment and recreational activities saw relatively notable increases.
Hong Hao, managing director and chief strategist of Bank of Communications International, said that the overall economic situation in Hong Kong last year was good, but it has been slowing down since the second half of the year.
As a small open economy, Hong Kong is particularly sensitive to changes in the external environment.
He believes that the slowdown of Hong Kong's economy will continue for some time, and the extent of the slowdown mainly depends on the situation of the epidemic.
Liang Haiming, a Hong Kong economist and director of the Silk Road Intelligence Valley Research Institute, said that the recent fluctuations in the external market, the rising geopolitical risks, and the delay in controlling the epidemic in Hong Kong have caused the Hong Kong economy to continue to suffer under the double blows from both internal and external sources.
Multiple measures to stabilize the economy and ensure employment
In order to curb the rising unemployment rate as soon as possible, allow Hong Kong's economy to recover quickly from the fifth wave of the epidemic, and quickly get back on track after the epidemic subsides, the SAR government announced the launch of a new round of employment protection plan, which is expected to spend between 26 billion and 31 billion Hong Kong dollars. Benefit 1.1 million to 1.3 million employees.
Yang Yuchuan, a visiting professor at the Hong Kong Institute of Financial Management, said that the relevant measures of the SAR government will provide help to all walks of life that have been severely hit by the epidemic, and will also encourage some companies to persevere in difficulties.
At present, the most important thing for enterprises is to operate normally and restore hematopoietic function, instead of relying on short-term government subsidies.
The Financial Secretary of the SAR Government, Chen Maobo, said in a blog post that the SAR government has escorted SMEs in terms of operating costs, capital turnover and retention of employees through a combination of punches, hoping to give SMEs more conditions and confidence in difficult times. Surviving the downturn and retaining employees will help to maintain the vitality of the economy, which is also conducive to the early recovery of the economy in the future.
Regarding the new round of consumer coupons plan that will be issued in two phases, Chen Maobo said that the first phase of HKD 5,000 consumer coupons will be issued next month, involving more than HKD 30 billion, hoping to ease the pressure on the public a little under the epidemic. The business of the business will also help.
Liang Haiming said that personal consumption accounts for more than 60% of Hong Kong's GDP, and the SAR government's launch of a new round of consumer vouchers will help stimulate the retail market, which is expected to support Hong Kong's economy.
With the full support of the central government, all sectors of the Hong Kong community have made concerted efforts to support the SAR government in its fight against the epidemic, so that the epidemic in Hong Kong can be brought under control as soon as possible. It is believed that the Hong Kong economy will gradually recover.
Overcome difficulties with confidence
The fifth wave of the epidemic is currently the biggest challenge facing the Hong Kong economy.
People in the industry generally said that, on the whole, the impact of the epidemic is short-term and external, while Hong Kong's economy is resilient and has a solid foundation. It has its own unique development advantages and will be able to overcome the challenges.
In the long run, we still have full confidence in Hong Kong's competitiveness.
Chen Maobo said at a recent press conference that as long as the epidemic in Hong Kong is under control and the environment is safe, when traffic resumes, Hong Kong's attractiveness will still be there, and the economic prospects will be promising.
"Our competitiveness has also continued to improve, including in finance, innovation and technology. We are confident that we can overcome the short-term difficulties. We hope that everyone will work together to win this battle against the epidemic and promote the economy as soon as possible. Recovery." Chen Maobo said.
The assessment report released by the International Monetary Fund earlier this month reaffirmed Hong Kong's status as a major international financial center and agreed that Hong Kong's financial industry continued to expand and develop during the epidemic.
Yang Yuchuan said that by controlling the epidemic as soon as possible and restoring normal exchanges between Hong Kong and the mainland, Hong Kong's economy is expected to achieve better development.
In the long run, Hong Kong should seize the northern metropolitan area, which is the "bull nose" of strengthening cooperation with the mainland, and lay the foundation for Hong Kong's sustained and rapid development through measures to develop the northern metropolitan area and promote further economic integration between Hong Kong and other cities in the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area. .
Liang Haiming said that the stable growth rate of the mainland economy and the improvement of long-term fundamentals are the solid support and confidence for the Hong Kong economy to maintain its momentum.
As long as Hong Kong can control the epidemic as soon as possible, it can regain the momentum of economic growth.
He expressed his belief that with the full support of the central government, Hong Kong's economy will gradually recover.