The economy today

Why the war in Ukraine could trigger famines in Africa

Audio 03:57

Russia harvested 131 million tonnes of wheat in 2020 (photo illustration).

© Pixabay / Andrey Braynsk

By: Dominique Baillard Follow

4 mins

“

”.

This is the cry of alarm launched yesterday by Antonio Guterres, the Secretary General of the United Nations.

It speaks of a collapse of the global food system.

Africa would be its first victim.

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Because today 45 African countries or least developed countries import at least a third of their wheat from Ukraine or Russia.

Among them, the Democratic Republic of Congo, Somalia, Burkina Faso and Libya.

IMF Director Kristalina Georgevia sums it up with an eloquent phrase, “

”.

Because, at the current price of wheat, 400 euros per ton, the cereal becomes unaffordable for the weakest countries economically.

The Russian fertilizer magnate Andrei Melnichenko is categorical: “

(…),

he continues,

”.

It is therefore a long-term food crisis which is in preparation, the immediate supply is complicated and that of the next season seems even more improbable.

Famine is already looming in some countries around the Mediterranean and sub-Saharan Africa

The countries devastated by war are the most fragile, such as Yemen or South Sudan, where millions of inhabitants will soon have nothing to eat.

Three weeks before the start of Ramadan, the situation is also tense in North Africa.

Egypt, the world's largest importer, is rushing to complete its purchases to fill its strategic reserves.

Algeria yesterday announced a ban on food exports.

As for Tunisia, it has endured shortages of semolina, wheat or flour for several weeks.

It imports half of its wheat needs and Ukraine is its main supplier.

But Ukraine, one of the breadbaskets of the planet, can no longer ship its goods

Due to the closure of the Black Sea ports, they are now under bombardment and surrounded by the Russian Navy.

Ukraine provides about 8% of the wheat exported in the world, which is why its sudden disappearance from the world market is causing the price of the main cereal consumed in the world to soar.

Usually, when a major exporter fails, competitors take over, which eases price pressures.

But this year, the drought has emptied the reserves: those of the United States, the second world exporter, are at their lowest and China, also very affected by the lack of water, plans to import much more: 9 million tonnes of wheat, 50% more than in previous years.

As a result, several countries suspend their food exports

In the name of food security or to try to limit inflation.

And in doing so, they are aggravating the coming crisis.

Argentina announced yesterday the suspension of all such exports of soybean oil or flour.

For the past week, Indonesia has restricted its sales of palm oil, the cheapest and most consumed in the world.

Finally, the world's largest wheat exporter, Russia, could suspend its exports until June 30.

This major producer also suffered from the drought.

In any case, the Russian origin has already left the market, due to the blocking of the ports.

The rise in oil and fertilizer prices, two essential raw materials in agricultural production, could dissuade the large cereal producers from sowing more.

Another factor aggravating the food crisis.

A data which obviously did not take over the Ukrainians.

Farmers are exempt from general mobilization to devote themselves to spring sowing.

► IN BRIEF

Asian markets trending lower this morning

The Hong Kong Stock Exchange lost 3% at midday.

Shanghai and Shenzhen are also down.

Asian investors fear an American backlash if Beijing were to support Russia too openly in its war against Ukraine.

Oil also fell, the American barrel fell back below the 100 dollar mark in electronic trading, in the wake of Brent listed in London which lost 5% yesterday.

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• Economy

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• Food