European of the week

Valeri Guerasimov, the Russian chief of staff in the face of Ukrainian resistance

Audio 03:30

Russian President Vladimir Putin in discussion with his Chief of the General Staff of the Armed Forces, Valeri Guerassimov on December 21, 2021. AFP - SERGEI GUNEYEV

By: Daniel Vallot Follow

4 mins

After the annexation of Crimea in 2014, and the intervention in Syria in 2015, this is the third military operation he has led for Vladimir Putin.

But the invasion of Ukraine is an offensive on a different scale than those carried out so far by the Chief of Staff of the Russian armies.

And Valeri Gerasimov, 66, is encountering unexpected resistance from Ukrainians.  

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He is a soldier " 

through and through

 ", says Sergei Choigou, the Russian Minister of Defence.

Born in 1955 in Kazan, Valeri Guerassimov spent his entire career in the armored vehicles of the Soviet army, then of the Russian army.

He climbed all the levels of the hierarchy before obtaining his first command at the end of the 1990s. Vladimir Putin had then just come to power and he involved his country in the second war in Chechnya.

Valeri Guerassimov

will become aware of the weaknesses of the Russian army, and its need for modernization.

“ 

Valeri Guerassimov is a bit like the perfect soldier, who has worked in different commands in the Russian zones,

explains Julien Théron, researcher at Sciences Po Paris, and co-author of “ 

Putin, the strategy of disorder

 ” at Taillandier editions.

He made a short passage in the Far East and commanded in the Baltic, in the Center and in the Caucasus.

His career progresses in a very linear way and he is someone who is reliable and extremely loyal. 

»

The Myth of the “Guerasimov Doctrine”

For Western countries, Valeri Guerassimov is not only the man that Vladimir Putin appointed to head the Russian armies in 2012. He is also the theoretician of what has been called "hybrid warfare": the use in a conflict of non-military forces such as disinformation.

A "Guerasimov doctrine" which in fact never really existed, and a myth built from scratch from an article published in 2013.

 It is a bad reading of Guerassimov whose intention was in reality to describe what he perceived of Western doctrine

, decrypts Yohann Michel, of the IISS (International Institute for Strategic Studies).

In this article, his objective was to explain what Westerners were doing

(especially during the Arab Spring – editor's note)

and not what the Russians wanted to do.

But after 2014, when part of the analysts discovered the different techniques employed both by the Russian armed forces, but also by the entire state apparatus, which was described in Gerasimov's article as Western doctrine has been perceived as a Russian doctrine – which has been called "

hybrid warfare

" or, incorrectly, "

Guerassimov doctrine

"."

The Guerassimov doctrine would therefore never have existed. However, the Russian army showed in 2014 in Ukraine that it perfectly mastered the tools of hybrid warfare - managing to seize the peninsula of Crimea almost without fighting.

Deep Operations

Eight years later, Russia is engaged in a conflict of a completely different scale, with much more conventional means.

And this time, the strategy employed in the early days is not quite working as expected.

“ 

The doctrine that is used in Ukraine is an in-depth operations doctrine

,” explains Julien Théron.

It is a classic Soviet doctrine which consists in shelling a certain number of sites, penetrating in depth on the territory in several places at the same time.

So that's exactly what we're seeing right now in Ukraine.

Except that we realize that it does not work!

 »

The expert recalls that the Ukrainian officers having themselves been trained in the Soviet school, they are perfectly familiar with this doctrine, which removed any effect of surprise from the Russian offensive.

“ 

Added to this is a whole host of problems which show that in certain areas the Russian army has not progressed: the question of logistics, communications and guidance systems…”

strategic stalemate

Until this Russian offensive in Ukraine, Valeri Guerasimov was considered one of the main architects of the greatness of the Russian army.

In Ukraine, it is this other myth that is collapsing: that of a Russian army that has become efficient, disciplined, and modernized.

Vladimir Putin's master of war, accustomed to easy military successes, is faced with an unforeseen situation and a very worrying strategic impasse with regard to the objectives set by the Kremlin: to occupy the entire territory and achieve regime change in Kiev.

“ 

We can quite imagine that Vladimir Poutine ends up finding the time long and considering that the inefficiency of operations poses a real problem

, believes Julien Théron

.

Can he separate from Gerasimov?

It's possible, but Vladimir Putin is quite isolated, surrounded by a small circle of people from the force structures – army and intelligence services.

And Valeri Guerassimov is a central personality of this device.

»

Valeri Guerassimov, the warlord to whom everything had succeeded so far will have to change his strategy in Ukraine.

And for that, to resort to methods employed, not in Donbass

or in Crimea

, but in Syria: encirclement of the cities, and massive and indiscriminate bombardments.

With the terrible consequences this will have for Ukraine, in terms of human lives and destruction.

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