Securities Times reporter Wu Jiaming

  "Many cities have relaxed regulation now, and mortgage interest rates have entered a downward channel. This year's regulation environment is looser than last year..." After waiting for more than a year, post-90s Xu Hui (pseudonym) has always wanted to buy in Shenzhen The suite has been receiving similar calls from real estate agents recently.

"I've missed two good opportunities to get on the bus, now is it really time to get on the bus?" Xu Hui felt a little flustered when he heard the "good" news.

  Entering 2022, the property market in many places seems to have opened a loose mode, and the voices of "Xiaoyangchun" are everywhere.

As one of the national property market weather vanes, Shenzhen, "Xiaoyangchun" can really come?

  Rumors stir the market

  Recently, many places have bailed out the real estate market, from increasing the provident fund loan amount and implementing housing purchase subsidies to "down payment reduction", "interest rate reduction" and "relaxing purchase restrictions", including third- and fourth-tier cities, and even Some hot cities are also included.

For example, Zhengzhou recently released a new policy on the property market, including the change from "recognizing the house and subscribing to the loan" to "recognizing the house without subscribing to the loan" for the first home.

  Securities Times reporters found that there has been no significant change in Shenzhen in terms of bank credit and regulatory policies.

Among them, the down payment ratio of housing loans in Shenzhen has not changed at present, the down payment ratio of first home loan is still 30%, and the first home loan interest rate is generally 4.9%.

However, the personal loan managers of many banks said that the mortgage loan amount in Shenzhen is relatively sufficient now, and the loan is relatively fast.

Recently, some real estate agent circles of friends and WeChat groups have circulated such news: some banks "do not require to check the source of the down payment, and the running water is no longer required to be twice the monthly payment".

However, the Securities Times reporter asked the personal loan managers of many banks, including Bank of China, and they all firmly stated: It is impossible not to check!

The requirements for running water are not relaxed either.

  In Xu Hui's view, the Shenzhen property market is easily disturbed by some "unconfirmed" news.

In addition to the news of bank credit, there are also news about the "control weapon" of the second-hand housing reference price spreading everywhere.

The market originally expected that the reference price of second-hand houses would be "changed once a year", but there was no change on February 8 this year.

Recently, news came out from the market that the new reference price of second-hand housing will be announced this month, and the reference price of most communities will be raised.

The reporter combed and found that about the rate of increase, the market generally said that it was 3% to 5%, and it was even said that it was increased by about 20%.

  As of press time, the Shenzhen housing construction department has not officially released any news about the adjustment of the second-hand housing reference price.

However, for the statement that the price of most communities will be increased by 20%, the industry generally believes that it is unlikely, just "to attract everyone's attention".

Real estate agents in Futian, Nanshan and Baoan told the Securities Times reporter that some owners of second-hand houses took the initiative to lower their prices before, but now they have slightly raised their quotations because they were affected by rumors, but there are not many owners who do so.

  In February of this year, the number of second-hand residential transfers in Shenzhen was 872, down 44% month-on-month. The transaction volume has fallen to the lowest value since 2008. The market blamed the epidemic, but in 2020, which was also affected by the epidemic, the Shenzhen property market appeared A round of hot market.

"If the reference price of second-hand houses is really generally raised, it should boost the market confidence of second-hand houses, and 'Xiaoyangchun' is expected to appear. We have been in communication with some potential customers recently, and we have to make dozens of calls every day." The sentence comes from a real estate agent in Bao'an District.

However, he also admitted that in the past, once there was any policy change in the Shenzhen property market, the market responded quickly, but this year seems to be different, because the expectations of home buyers on the property market have changed.

"The reference price of second-hand houses is still playing a strong role, and owners who want to sell as soon as possible will still take the initiative to cut prices. Now everyone's reaction to the rumors of the property market has been calmer."

  It can be seen that even under the expectation of "Xiaoyangchun", real estate agents have begun to get busy, but most home buyers are still cautious.

  Developers are busy with promotions

  For developers, whether the market can usher in a "little spring" is very important to the collection of funds, and it also indicates whether the confidence of home buyers can be fully restored.

However, regardless of whether "Xiaoyangchun" really appears, promotion and destocking are the most important tasks at present.

  In Pingshan District, Shenzhen, a new property is being sold with the slogan "10% down payment starting from 370,000", which is almost comparable to the down payment in third- and fourth-tier cities.

However, if you look closely at the relevant advertisements, buyers will find that this is just a fake operation by the developer, because there is also a line on the advertisement poster: "Make up the remaining down payment within 90 days".

  Nowadays, it is difficult to reproduce the days when developers wait for customers to come to their homes to grab houses. Shenzhen's new housing market has begun to increase sales efforts after the Chinese New Year, and phenomena such as special offers and high commissions are emerging one after another.

Securities Times reporters found that three new properties near Shuibei Metro Station in Luohu District have recently launched special offers, with a maximum reduction of 1.5 million yuan.

In addition, there are also housing companies that have increased national marketing incentives and given high commissions, including residential, apartment, commercial, office building and other product types.

Not only that, there were no new housing projects in Shenzhen in February, and the market was in a trough. However, just in March, new housing projects in Shenzhen started to become lively again, and some new projects have begun to announce their sales plans.

"The real estate industry is in a transition period, and we are also waiting for clearer signals, but there is also a lot of financial pressure." The marketing director of a large real estate company in Shenzhen told the Securities Times reporter.

  In the trough period of the market, detoxification is the kingly way for developers to survive; moreover, under the keynote of "housing and not speculating", "Xiaoyangchun" cannot afford too high expectations.

This is the prevailing view in the market.

  He Qianru, director of Midland Realty's National Research Center, believes that Shenzhen's new housing market has been on sale since the Lunar New Year, which is mainly related to the overall market environment.

After the Chinese New Year, although the market has recovered a little, the momentum is not very strong.

The epidemic began to spread in Shenzhen after the superposition of a year, and the enthusiasm of customers to see houses was greatly hindered. Developers could only rely on promotions to attract customers.

  Li Yujia, chief researcher of the Guangdong Provincial Housing Policy Research Center, believes that the "little spring" of the Shenzhen property market should come, but it may be delayed until April due to the impact of the epidemic.

However, for the "little spring" of Shenzhen's property market this year, there should not be too much expectations, and the second-hand housing reference price policy will continue to be implemented.

"The part of the properties that have been speculated on illegally and leveraged since the second half of 2020 are mainly distributed in Houhai, Baozhong, Guangming, Shajing and other areas, as well as the counterparts in school districts, etc. Without leverage, it is difficult to have purchasing power. Sufficient successors, this is also the reason for the continuous decline of second-hand housing in Shenzhen recently.” He predicts that the Shenzhen property market will be in a process of bottoming out and slow recovery in the first half of this year, and the transaction volume of second-hand housing is expected to reach monthly levels around the middle of the year. The level of around 4000 sets, but it will still be lower than the watershed of 5000 sets.

The next market trend will depend on the changes in the epidemic and control policies.

He Qianru predicts that the second-hand housing market in Shenzhen this year will still be a trend of lows and highs.