Journal of Haiti and the Americas
War in Ukraine: "the United States is pessimistic about the outcome of this conflict"
Audio 7:30 p.m.
A factory and a store burn after being bombed in Irpin, on the outskirts of Kiev, this Sunday, March 6.
AP - Emilio Morenatti
By: Marion Cazanove
2 mins
Washington is watching the war in Ukraine very closely, which entered its twelfth day on Monday.
The Pentagon learns a lot about the state of the Russian military, the ambitions of Vladimir Putin and adapts to avoid an escalation.
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Russia was betting on a lightning operation to control Ukraine.
Twelve days after the start of the war, the Russian army continued to bombard the country and made progress, but was surprised by Ukrainian resistance.
Same observation in Washington: the American experts did not expect such a scenario, even if they are aware of the capacities of the Kiev army: "
since 2014, Washington has been reinforcing, supporting, equipping the Ukrainian army by having delivered nearly three billion dollars worth of equipment since 2014
”, explains Pierre Morcos, researcher at CSIS, the Center for strategic and international studies in Washington, guest of RFI.
"
The second element of surprise, for American intelligence, are all the failures of the Russian army and in particular the failures of the logistics chain
, ”continues Pierre Morcos.
Some media have shown images of Russian tanks stuck a few kilometers from Kiev, lacking fuel and food for the soldiers.
These difficulties show “
a lack of professionalism, of preparation of the Russian army for a conflict of such intensity.
In terms of the mental toughness of the soldiers, there have been a number of defections.
This conflict shows that behind appearances, the Russian army is not very ready
”.
American intelligence has noted a shift in strategy over the past few days.
After a blitzkrieg phase, with precise strikes, the Russian army intensified its bombardments without distinction between civilians and soldiers.
Vladimir Putin has also brandished the nuclear threat in recent days.
A threat that the Pentagon does not necessarily take seriously for Pierre Morcos.
On the other hand, “
the
United States takes the risk of an unintended nuclear escalation seriously, hence the creation of a direct line of communication between the
United States and Russia
.
The US Secretary of Defense also announced the postponement of a nuclear exercise to avoid any misunderstanding
that could lead to an escalation .
".
Despite the resistance of the Ukrainian army and the shortcomings of the Russian army, "
the United States is pessimistic about the outcome of this conflict
", observes the researcher.
“
Hence the adoption of massive sanctions, the acceleration of the delivery of military armament, to force Moscow to accept negotiations
”.
A third round of talks was to be held today, between Ukraine and Russia.
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United States
Ukraine
Russia
Vladimir Poutine
Joe Biden
Volodymyr Zelensky