Russian President Vladimir Putin's statement about putting the nuclear deterrent forces on alert drew the attention of US decision makers, especially after the start of the fighting in Ukraine.

Putin's move came as a veiled threat to the United States and the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) countries, and is consistent with the contents of Russia's "National Security Strategy" that came to light last June.

Although the number of Russian nuclear weapons has fallen sharply since the end of the Cold War, it maintains a stockpile of thousands of warheads, with more than 1,500 of them deployed on missiles and launchers capable of reaching any part of the US mainland.

Among the most important contents of the Russian strategy regarding nuclear weapons is that:

  • The contemporary world is going through a phase of transformation with an increased risk of armed conflicts turning into regional wars that will involve countries, especially countries with nuclear arsenals.

  • The world is actively working on transforming the space and information sphere into new areas of combat.

  • A number of countries in the world classify Russia as a "threat" and even a "military adversary".

  • The continued training of NATO on scenarios of using nuclear weapons against Russia increases the military risks facing the country.

President Putin's move - to put the nuclear deterrent forces on high alert - prompted the Congressional Research Service (the research body that provides members of the Senate and House of Representatives with the necessary reports in strategic areas) to issue a report on the first of this March dealing with a review of the military doctrine of the Russian nuclear weapon. .

 escalate to de-escalate principle

American analysts have come to the conclusion that Russia has adopted a strategy of "escalation to de-escalate", whereby it threatens to use nuclear weapons if any NATO member country is confronted, in an attempt to persuade the United States and its allies not to engage in any future conflicts.

And the US Interim National Security Strategy, issued on March 4, 2021, stated that "Russia remains determined to strengthen its global influence and play a disruptive role on the global stage."

This expressed American fears of a change in Russian behavior on the global scene, which was evident in a move launched by the war on Ukraine.

The congressional study noted that Russia's nuclear forces consist of long-range strategic systems—including intercontinental ballistic missiles, submarine-launched ballistic missiles, and heavy bombers—and short and medium-range delivery systems.

During the Cold War, the Soviet Union pledged that it would not be the first to use nuclear weapons in any conflict.

After the Cold War, Russia did not maintain the Soviet "no first use of nuclear weapons" policy, and revised its nuclear doctrine several times to respond to concerns about its security environment and the capabilities of its conventional forces.

All indications indicate that Russia has placed more reliance on nuclear weapons and may threaten to use them if regional conflicts escalate.

In addition, Russian President Vladimir Putin announced in March 2018 that Russia is developing new types of nuclear systems.

While some see these weapons as a Russian attempt to achieve some degree of superiority over the United States, others point out that they most likely represent Russia's response to concerns about the capabilities of advanced American missile defense systems.

These new Russian systems include, among others, a heavy ICBM that has the ability to carry multiple warheads and can be launched in a variety of ways, including supersonic missiles, submarines or nuclear-powered cruise missiles.

The development of the Russian nuclear doctrine

Russia altered and modified Soviet nuclear doctrine to meet the conditions of the post-Cold War world.

In 1993, Russia explicitly rejected the Soviet Union's pledge not to use the first, in part due to the weakness of its conventional forces at the time.

Russia has subsequently modified its military doctrine and concept of national security several times over the past few decades, and successive formulations in the 1990s seem to rely more on nuclear weapons.

In early June 2020, Russia issued a new document on "Basic Principles of the Russian Federation's Policy on Nuclear Deterrence".

This document specifically notes that Russia "considers nuclear weapons exclusively as a means of deterrence."

The document states that Russia's nuclear deterrence policy is "defensive in nature, aims to maintain nuclear capabilities at a sufficient level for nuclear deterrence, ensures the protection of the state's national sovereignty and territorial integrity, and deters a potential adversary from aggression against the Russian Federation or its allies."

The document lists a number of threats that Russia may face and the conditions under which it may consider the use of nuclear weapons.

The report notes that Russia can respond with nuclear weapons when it receives "reliable data on the launch of ballistic missiles attacking the territory of the Russian Federation or its allies", or in response to "an adversary's use against Russia or its allies of nuclear weapons or other types of weapons of mass destruction."

It also included that Russia could respond with nuclear weapons following "an attack by an adversary against critical government or military sites in the Russian Federation, which would undermine the response measures of nuclear forces, or any aggression against the Russian Federation using conventional weapons that would cause an existential threat to Russia."

Unlike all previous Russian documents, this document did not call for the preventive use of nuclear weapons during conventional conflicts, but it does not completely solve the question of whether Russia would escalate to nuclear use if it was losing a conventional war.

The report concluded that Russia "must have nuclear weapons capable of inflicting specific damage on any aggressor country or any coalition of countries."

Putin: Do not question our nuclear response

As a result, many analysts have argued that Russia has adopted an "escalation-de-escalation" nuclear doctrine.

They claim that when Russia faces the prospect of defeat in a military conflict with NATO, it may threaten to use nuclear weapons in an attempt to force alliance members to withdraw from the battlefield.

During a speech to the Russian State Duma in March 2018, President Putin appeared to underline the broad role of nuclear weapons in Russia’s combat doctrine, saying: “I would like to note that our military doctrine says that Russia reserves the right to use nuclear weapons only in response to a nuclear attack, an attack with other weapons of mass destruction against the country or its allies, or an act of aggression against us using conventional weapons that threaten the very existence of the state.”

He added: "All this is very clear and specific. As such, I consider it my duty to declare the following: that any use of nuclear weapons against Russia or its allies, whether with short, medium or long-range weapons, would constitute a nuclear attack on us, and the retaliation would be immediate, With all the attendant consequences. There should be no doubt about that at all."