The period from March to May should be warmer and drier in France than normal after an already dry winter, which could pose problems of dry soil, according to the climatic trends of Météo-France, presented on Tuesday.
The meteorological winter, which extends from December 1 to February 28, “was dominated by a persistent anticyclone”, indicated Jean-Michel Soubeyroux, of Météo-France, during an online press briefing.
This winter "was mostly mild, dry and rather sunny depending on the region", with temperatures "higher by 1.2°C on average" compared to seasonal norms, even 2°C in Hauts-de-France and in Alsace, he detailed.
The sunshine was excessive at the national level, in particular on the southern half, according to the report of Météo-France.
A lack of precipitation this winter
The period was also marked by a deficit in precipitation, of 10% at the national level and up to 50% locally on the Mediterranean arc, continues the climatologist, with "a beginning of drought in certain regions since the beginning of the year ".
The rainfall deficit in January and February concerns the Mediterranean arc but also “Centre-Val-de-Loire and northern Aquitaine”, he specified.
Météo-France also presented climate trends for the months of March to May, which differ from weather forecasts.
They strive "to determine the trends expected on average over the quarter", without allowing "to predict the details of the weather conditions for the coming months day by day or even week by week".
Precipitation essential to avoid drought
“The most likely scenario for Europe and the Atlantic is a more developed anticyclonic scenario than normal,” indicated Jean-Michel Soubeyroux.
Regarding temperatures, “the hot scenario is the most likely”, with a probability of 70%, as well as the “dry scenario” in terms of precipitation, with a probability of 50%.
🤔 What to expect in the next three months?
🌡️🌧️ Here are our weather trends for March, April, May.
➡️ More info: https://t.co/okA26wjO5B pic.twitter.com/Y6dzHg4XhF
— Meteo-France (@meteofrance) March 1, 2022
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“Having rainfall in the next few weeks will be essential to avoid having significant soil drought,” he explained.
“A hot and dry spring does not predict the conditions to come for the summer,” added Jean-Michel Soubeyroux.
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