Expert analysis of “Omicron strain mortality rate higher than seasonal flu”

Experts have summarized that the proportion of people who are infected with the new coronavirus Omicron strain and die or develop pneumonia is thought to be higher than that of seasonal influenza.

Government subcommittees have pointed out that the risk of Omicron strains should be evaluated compared to seasonal influenza, as the number of infected people is orders of magnitude higher than before, while the proportion of severely ill and dead people is low. It is issued in.

In response to this, at the expert meeting of the Ministry of Health, Labor and Welfare held on the 2nd, the case fatality rate of seasonal influenza based on the estimated number of infected people in the 2018-19 season was While it was about 0.01% to 0.05%, the analysis result showed that the Omicron strain was about 0.13% as of the 21st of last month, which is considered to be higher than that of seasonal influenza.

The rate of developing pneumonia is also suggested to be higher in the Omicron strain, although data are limited.

Regarding this analysis, while the new corona is based on the figures reported in all cases including asymptomatic people, the number of people infected with influenza is based on estimates, and the new corona is based on the status of mutant strains and vaccines. Accurate evaluation is difficult because the lethality rate changes depending on the effectiveness.

In addition, at the meeting, due to the strain on the health center and medical system due to the spread of Omicron strain, the expert of the member suggested that it should be prioritized to those who are at risk of serious illness such as the elderly. rice field.

In the proposal, as an urgent measure, for those who are mild and low risk at the time of diagnosis, as a "low risk confirmed case", health observation is performed by the health center upon receiving a request from the person when the symptoms worsen, and also for those who become severe. It is said that we should create a system that can respond promptly to consultations so as not to overlook it.

Regarding the risk assessment of Omicron strains, Takaji Wakita, chairman of the expert meeting, said, "We need to be aware of the difference between Omicron strains and seasonal influenza. If so, we should analyze how much impact it has on society. "