IPCC Report “Climate Change Has Widespread Adverse Effects”

The United Nations IPCC = "Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change" created by scientists from around the world has compiled and published a report on the impact of climate change on nature and society for the first time in eight years.

It warns that the negative effects are widespread, such as food supply and health, and that adapting to climate change is approaching its limits.

The IPCC has held an online meeting from the 14th of this month to discuss the latest research results and to compile a report on the natural and social impacts of climate change for the first time in eight years and publish it on the 28th.

The report concludes that "climate change caused by humankind causes widespread adverse effects on nature and humans and the associated losses and damages," and the previous "Climate change affects nature and humans." I made a big step from the expression "causing".

He also points out that various impacts are spreading and especially adverse effects are increasing in a wide range of fields such as water supply, agriculture and fisheries, health, and natural disasters.

And while more than 3 billion people live in vulnerable conditions that cannot cope with climate change and measures to limit the average temperature rise to 1.5 degrees Celsius can significantly reduce losses, they cannot be completely eliminated. It is written.

On the other hand, it is said that efforts to adapt to climate change can reduce risks, improve agricultural productivity and improve health, but economic disparities are creating differences in efforts in regions and warming. It is highly likely that adaptation will reach its limit as the climate changes.

Based on this, the IPCC said, "The global warming of 1.5 degrees will face various crises for the next 20 years. If it exceeds 1.5 degrees even temporarily, the impact will be even more serious and some will be irreversible. It will be something like that. "

At the UN Conference on Climate Change Countermeasures "COP26" held last year, countries reconsidered greenhouse gas reduction targets to limit temperature rise to 1.5 degrees Celsius, and discussed climate change adaptation around the world. It has been agreed that we will proceed as a whole, and it will be even more questioned how each country and the world will act in response to this report.

Forecast of specific impact

The IPCC report predicts that the effects of climate change will be widespread in areas such as water and food supply, health and natural disasters.

In the medium to long term, it could cause effects that are several times greater than currently observed, and the risks are strongly dependent on future climate change measures.

Specifically, if the global average temperature rises by more than 2 degrees Celsius, it will have a serious impact on food security, and malnutrition may spread, especially in Africa, South Asia, and Central and South America. It is predicted that the damage caused by floods may increase 1.4 to 2 times when the temperature rises by 2 degrees, compared to the case of 1.5 degrees.

He also pointed out that the effects on life and health will spread, and the risk of infectious diseases transmitted by insects and water increases regardless of the degree of temperature rise, and dengue fever is wider than it is now in Asia and Europe. By the end of this century, billions of people in the region could be at risk.

What is the IPCC report?

The United Nations IPCC = "Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change" was established in 1988 by WMO = World Meteorological Organization and UNEP = United Nations Environment Program.

Researchers recommended by the governments of each country cooperate to discuss the current state and future outlook of climate change, its impact on nature and society, and measures to reduce greenhouse gas emissions based on the latest research results. And the entire report are published every few years.

Currently, the 6th evaluation reports are being compiled one by one, and what was announced this time is the part related to the impact on nature and society.

The first evaluation report was published in 1990 and became one of the important grounds for the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change adopted in 1992.

The Fifth Assessment Report, published from 2013 to the following year, includes efforts to keep the global average temperature rise below 2 degrees Celsius compared to before the Industrial Revolution and to keep it at 1.5 degrees Celsius. It led to the adoption of the "Agreement".

The 6th Assessment Report was published in August last year regarding the current state and future outlook for climate change.

In this, "there is no doubt that the influence of humans has warmed the atmosphere, ocean and land", and for the first time it was determined that the cause of global warming was due to human activities. As the frequency and intensity of "extreme phenomena" such as heat waves and heavy rains will increase, the content will encourage the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions.

The IPCC received the Nobel Peace Prize in 2007 for its activities, including clarifying that human activity is related to climate change.

The impact in Japan

In Japan, research on climate change has been conducted in a wide range of fields such as fisheries, agriculture, disasters and health, and various adverse effects have been pointed out.

Of these, in the fishery industry, according to a report compiled last year by the Fisheries Agency's study group, saury, Japanese flying squid, salmon, etc., are one of the factors that have become more serious in recent years due to changes in tidal currents and water temperature due to global warming. And so on.

In addition, in order to make the fishing industry flexible in response to changes, he said that he would encourage the shift from fishing that relies on one type of fish to fishing that combines the types of fish and fishing methods that are taken according to the situation of resources.

An adult report from the Ministry of the Environment points out that some kelp may disappear in northern Japan due to rising seawater temperatures.

In agriculture, it has already been confirmed that rice, the staple food, has deteriorated in quality due to rising temperatures, and it is pointed out that the impact will spread in the 2040s and economic loss may increase.

Regarding natural disasters, flood damage may increase due to rising sea levels and extreme heavy rains, and if the world's average temperature rises by about 2 degrees Celsius, the probability of flooding in Japan will double, and the amount of damage will be. It is estimated to exceed 1.4 trillion yen annually.

In the field of health, it is predicted that in the 2090s, the time spent outdoors during the daytime in Tokyo and Osaka will be shortened by 30% to 40% due to the rise in temperature, and bacteria in the water will be shortened due to the rise in water temperature. There is also concern that the risk of infectious diseases will increase.

Expert "May of unsustainable production"

Since the temperature is greatly related to the growth of fruit trees such as mandarin oranges, apples and grapes, it is said that the farmers and production areas where they grow are strongly affected by climate change.

According to Toshihiko Sugiura of the Fruit Tree Smart Production Group of the Institute of Fruit Tree Science, who is familiar with the relationship between fruit trees and weather, it is suitable for growing Satsuma mandarin only in areas where the average annual temperature is 15 to 17 degrees Celsius. ..

In a warmer environment, there is a gap between the flesh and the skin, which can cause a phenomenon called "floating skin" that is easily damaged, or it can cause sunburn and reduce the quality.

However, it takes time for fruit trees such as mandarin oranges to stabilize after planting, and it is often not replanted for about 30 years, so it is difficult to respond immediately to the progress of global warming.

In the future, it is predicted that areas suitable for cultivation will move northward or move to higher altitudes, so while switching to heat-resistant varieties and devising cultivation methods in the production areas, we will move to different crops. It means that the movement to change is also spreading.

Mr. Sugiura said, "If we do not take measures against global warming that will intensify in the future, we may not be able to maintain production. Agriculture cannot be carried out ignoring the climate, and who will bear the cost and labor required for measures? It is necessary to change agriculture, related industries, and consumption, including climate change, in response to changes in the climate. "

Mandarin orange farmer Warm overseas challenges the cultivation of avocado, the main production area

As the effects of climate change spread to the agricultural sector, Ehime Prefecture, which boasts an annual harvest of more than 110,000 tons of oranges, is beginning to see farmers trying to grow avocados, which are mainly produced in warm countries.

Kazuyoshi Nakamura (74), a farmer on Nuwa Island in Matsuyama City in the Seto Inland Sea, has been cultivating citrus fruits such as Satsuma mandarin since his father's generation at a farm of 120 ares.

However, about 25 years ago, a phenomenon called "floating skin", which is one of the effects of global warming, has started to cause the mandarin orange peel to separate from the fruit, and it is becoming more common to ship it only as a processed product.

Amid concerns about the effects of climate change, Mr. Nakamura is working on the cultivation of citrus fruits that are resistant to heat, as well as the cultivation of avocados that are native to tropical and subtropical regions.

Avocados are vulnerable to the cold, and sometimes the fruits did not grow well at first, but the harvest has been stable for the past few years, and now they use 40 ares of land, which is 30% of the farm, and ship 300 kilograms a year. about it.

According to the Matsuyama City Agricultural Guidance Center, 180 farmers are working on avocado cultivation together with mandarin oranges, and 2.3 tons were shipped last year.

Mr. Nakamura said, "Mandarin is vulnerable to heat and heavy rain, but avocado is resistant to heat and rain, making it easier to cultivate every year. I have been farming for over 50 years, but it is a hotter day than in the past. Depending on the variety, the number of times it becomes a floating skin increases, and I feel that it is the effect of global warming. I am happy that avocado will be lined up in supermarkets as a special product along with mandarin oranges in the future. "

In addition, in Ehime Prefecture, blood oranges, which are native to Italy and are characterized by red flesh, are also actively produced, mainly in Uwajima City.

Blood oranges were said to be vulnerable to cold and not suitable for cultivation in Japan, but according to JA Ehime Minami, the average annual temperature in Uwajima City has risen by more than once in about 40 years, and it has become possible to produce it. about it.

Today, about 300 farmers in the city grow blood oranges.

Environment Minister Yamaguchi "Achieving carbon neutrality in 2050 is extremely important"

Regarding the IPCC report, Environment Minister Yamaguchi reiterated that it is extremely important to keep the temperature rise to 1.5 degrees Celsius, that is, to achieve carbon neutrality in 2050. Further greenhouse gas emissions It is essential to promote efforts such as reduction and adaptation to high-level climate change. We will support the efforts of local governments and the private sector and do our utmost to build a sustainable Japanese society. " Did.