A group of Professor Hiroshi Nishiura of Kyoto University and others have compiled an estimated result that the total number of deaths due to the "6th wave" of the new coronavirus may exceed 5,500 by April.

At the expert meeting of the Ministry of Health, Labor and Welfare held on the 24th, the latest estimation result of the number of deaths by the "6th wave" estimated by the group of Professor Nishiura of Kyoto University was shown.



The group estimated the cumulative number of deaths in the epidemic "6th wave" by combining the case fatality rate of the new corona for each age group calculated from the data up to mid-February and the estimation of the future infection situation.



As a result, the estimated number of deaths due to the new corona from December last year to April 23 is


174 in their 40s and 50s


, 464 in their 60s


, and 886 in their 70s. ,


▽ There are 3993 people in their 80s and over, and


it is expected that there will be a total of 5517 people.



This estimate does not include effects such as the third vaccination.



If we calculate that 60% of the elderly will complete the third vaccination this month, we can expect to reduce the death toll of the elderly by 295.



The estimated cumulative number of deaths has increased by more than 1,100 from the calculation results released last week, and Professor Nishiura said, "The number of new cases tends to remain high. As a result, the predicted number of deaths also increases. I did. "