(Economic Observation) Will the price of new houses in Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou and Shenzhen take the lead in turning up the Chinese property market?

  China News Service, Beijing, February 21 (Reporter Pang Wuji) In January, the prices of new houses in the four first-tier cities of Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou and Shenzhen "turned up" across the board.

This is after many consecutive months of adjustment, and the property market has once again clearly sent a signal of recovery.

In the past, almost every round of real estate growth cycle started with first-tier cities recovering first.

This time, will China's property market, which is on the road to recovery, usher in a "little spring"?

Data map: Real estate real estate.

Photo by China News Agency reporter Zhang Bin.jpg

  Data released by China's National Bureau of Statistics on the 21st showed that in January, the price of new homes in China's first-tier cities rose 0.6% month-on-month, after falling 0.1% in the previous month.

In the month, the prices of new houses in Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou and Shenzhen have all "turned up", rising by 1.0%, 0.6%, 0.5% and 0.5% respectively.

  Li Yujia, chief researcher of the Guangdong Provincial Housing Policy Research Center, pointed out that in January, the price increase of new houses in first-tier cities hit a seven-month high, showing a clear trend of bottoming out.

Among them, the price of new houses in Beijing and Shanghai led the rise, while the Guangzhou-Shenzhen property market, which was hit by the credit risk of developers and the epidemic in the early stage, gradually got rid of the haze and began to rebound.

  He believes that in the regulation of the property market since 2022, the weight of "guaranteeing the delivery of properties, ensuring stability, and protecting people's livelihood" is increasing.

In recent months, the financial regulatory authorities have frequently released signals to stabilize the property market. This year, the property market capital will be significantly improved compared to 2021. Coupled with the active support of the property market in various places, the property market has an obvious trend of bottoming out and rebounding.

First-tier cities are the first to rebound, which is also the law of previous property market cycles.

  Chen Xiao, a senior analyst at Zhuge Housing Data Research Center, pointed out that in the first month of 2022, the national real estate environment will continue to improve.

That month, Nanning, Zigong, Fuzhou and many other places introduced policies to stabilize the property market, such as reducing the down payment ratio of provident funds and providing housing subsidies.

According to agency statistics, since the beginning of this year, supportive policies to stabilize the property market have been released nearly 40 times.

  Zhang Bo, director of the branch of 58 Anju Room Property Research Institute, also said that although the real estate market in most cities has not bottomed out in January, the transaction volume in Shanghai, Beijing and other cities has stabilized and rebounded, and the support for housing prices is relatively strong.

That month, the price of new houses in second-tier cities also changed from falling to rising, from falling for three consecutive months to a month-on-month rise of 0.1%.

  During the month, among the 70 large and medium-sized cities, the number of cities with falling housing prices decreased significantly, and the decline in housing prices also narrowed.

In January, there were 39 and 55 cities where the sales prices of newly built commercial housing and second-hand housing dropped month-on-month, 11 and 8 less than the previous month.

At the same time, on average in the 70 cities, the declines in both new and second-hand house prices have narrowed, new houses have basically stopped falling, and second-hand house prices have fallen by 0.3%, a slight decrease from the previous two months.

  The decline in housing prices has weakened. Will there be a "little spring" in the Chinese property market this year?

  The heat of the real estate market is often directly linked to mortgages.

On the same day, the latest loan market quoted interest rate (LPR) was released. The one-year LPR was 3.7%, and the LPR for more than 5 years was 4.6%, which was the same as the previous month.

However, after the interest rate cut in January, the mortgage interest rates in many places have fallen.

In February 2022, the mainstream first and second home loan interest rates in 103 key cities monitored by the Shell Research Institute fell by 9 basis points from the previous month; the average loan period in February was 38 days, 12 days shorter than the previous month.

At present, including Beijing and Shenzhen, nearly 40% of the cities have a loan cycle of less than one month.

  Xu Xiaole, chief market analyst at Shell Research Institute, predicts that the credit environment will remain loose in the later period.

Loan support policies may be transmitted from provident funds to commercial loans, and policy adjustments will be transitioned from low-energy-level cities to high-energy-level cities, which will help to substantially reduce the cost of housing purchases and release housing demand.

Data from the Shell Research Institute shows that after the Spring Festival, the average daily transaction volume of second-hand housing in Shell 50 cities has increased significantly compared with the average daily level in January, and the market sentiment index has maintained a steady recovery.

It is expected that the transaction activity will further improve in the later period, and the housing price will resume stable.

  Zhang Bo believes that under the guidance of city-specific policies, many cities and regions will moderately relax the regulation, especially the effect of lower down payment on the increase in the heat of the property market will be more obvious.

In addition, the marginal relaxation of financial policies has boosted market confidence. It is expected that the market adjustment trend will continue in February. In some cities with strong demand support and cities with strong policy support, the pace of market bottoming and recovery will be significantly accelerated. Still possible.

  However, this "Xiaoyangchun" is not expected to be too hot, nor too early.

Li Yujia pointed out that judging from the fact that the year-on-year index growth in 70 cities is still narrowing and the first-tier cities are flat, the current housing prices have not rebounded and risen after demand and expectations have improved, and developers' pricing is still relatively reasonable.

He believes that the current inventory of new houses in hot cities is not large, and many are only 6-7 months old. When the new house market rebounds and is expected to start to rebound, incremental demand will flood into second-hand houses. It is expected that in the middle of this year, new houses in hot cities and regions will be And second-hand housing are showing a rebounding trend.