China Economic Net, Beijing, February 21 (Reporter Li Fang) What is the property market situation in 2022?
This morning, the National Bureau of Statistics released the changes in the sales prices of commercial housing in 70 large and medium-sized cities in January, showing that the sales prices of newly built commercial housing and second-hand housing dropped month-on-month in 39 and 55 cities respectively, a decrease of 11 and 8 respectively from the previous month. indivual.
"The sales prices of new commercial housing and second-hand housing in 70 large and medium-sized cities have weakened from the previous month, and the year-on-year increase has generally declined." said Sheng Guoqing, chief statistician of the City Department of the National Bureau of Statistics.
It is worth noting that in January, the price of new houses in first-tier cities stopped falling and turned up, from a month-on-month decrease of 0.1% to an increase of 0.6%, of which Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou and Shenzhen increased by 1.0%, 0.6%, 0.5% and 0.5% respectively. .
Second-hand housing rose 0.1% month-on-month, the same increase as last month, with Beijing and Shanghai up 0.5% and 0.6% respectively, and Guangzhou and Shenzhen down 0.2% and 0.5% respectively.
Industry insiders believe that with the stabilization of control policies, the increase in credit supply, and the emergence of the bottom of the policy, the market gradually emerged in January with the characteristics of a bottom.
At present, most cities have not yet bottomed out, but first-tier cities have led the way in growth. The transaction volume in Shanghai, Beijing and other cities has stabilized and rebounded, and the support for housing prices is relatively strong.
New house prices stopped falling, Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou and Shenzhen rose across the board
In January, the price of new houses in first-tier cities changed from a month-on-month decrease of 0.1% to an increase of 0.6%; second-tier cities changed from a decrease of 0.3% in the previous month to an increase of 0.1%; third-tier cities decreased by 0.2%, a decrease of 0.1 percentage points from the previous month.
In terms of the number of rising and falling cities, the number of newly-built commercial housing cities rose in 28 cities in January, an increase of 13 cities from the previous month; 3 cities remained unchanged, a decrease of 2 cities from the previous month; and 39 cities fell, a decrease of 11 cities from the previous month.
In terms of second-hand housing, first-tier cities rose by 0.1% month-on-month, the same increase as last month; second-tier cities fell by 0.2% month-on-month, and the decline narrowed by 0.1 percentage points from the previous month; third-tier cities fell by 0.4%, and the decline was both 0.1% lower than the previous month. percent.
From the perspective of cities, the number of second-hand housing rising cities in January was 10, an increase of 4 from the previous month; 5 cities were flat, an increase of 4 from the previous month; and 55 cities fell, a decrease of 8 from the previous month.
"Most cities have not yet bottomed out, but it is worth noting that the sales price of new commercial housing in first-tier cities has changed from a month-on-month decrease of 0.1% to an increase of 0.6%, especially in Shanghai, Beijing and other cities. The transaction volume has now stabilized The rebound in housing prices is relatively strong.” Zhang Bo, president of the 58 Anju Room Property Research Institute, believes that the market in second- and third-tier cities and below has not yet fully recovered, and January is just before the Spring Festival, and the demand for housing in the market continues to heat up. The decrease, coupled with the fact that returning home to buy properties did not meet market expectations, led to a significant year-on-year decrease in the overall market transaction volume, which also greatly reduced the upward momentum of house prices to a certain extent.
"The prices of new houses in first- and second-tier cities stopped falling and turned up. The property market has shown resilience, and first-tier cities have led the way in growth. Prices in Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou and Shenzhen have risen across the board." Chen Xiao, a senior analyst at Zhuge Housing Data Research Center, also pointed out that the recovery of second-hand houses is slower than that of new houses. , the first-tier cities performed steadily, and the price decline in the second- and third-tier cities narrowed.
"In January this year, the credit policy continued to be loose, and local governments showed a tolerant and encouraging attitude towards real estate market policies, which objectively curbed the depression of second-hand housing last year, especially in the second half of the year." Yan Yuejin, research director of the Think Tank Center of E-House Research Institute Say.
He reminded that "the decline of second-hand housing in second-tier cities is the most obvious, indicating that there is a strong potential demand for housing in second-tier cities, and it is necessary to prevent subsequent speculation in second-hand housing."
The adjustment trend will continue, and strictly guard against speculation in the property market
Entering 2022, the national real estate environment will basically continue the trend of the end of last year, and the market environment will continue to improve.
In January, the central and local governments released positive signals one after another. The National Development and Reform Commission emphasized support for the commercial housing market to better meet the reasonable housing needs of buyers in the "Notice of the National Development and Reform Commission on Promoting Consumption in the Near Future".
City-specific policies to promote a virtuous circle and healthy development of the real estate industry.
At the local level, Beihai, Zigong and other cities have introduced new housing provident fund policies to reduce the down payment ratio.
According to statistics from the Central Plains Real Estate Research Institute, since January 2022, the country's real estate control policies have been intensive, and the cumulative number of real estate control policies has exceeded 80, of which nearly 40 cities have issued policies to stabilize the property market.
From the perspective of policy content, compared with the tightening of real estate regulation in previous years, the real estate regulation in 2022 will basically focus on stabilizing the property market, and loose policies will be the main focus.
"Under the guidance of city-specific policies, many cities and regions have started a rhythm of moderately relaxing regulation. In particular, the reduction of down payment will have a more obvious effect on the heat of the property market. In addition, the marginal relaxation of financial policies will also boost market confidence. It is relatively obvious.” Looking ahead to the market outlook, Zhang Bo predicts, “The market adjustment trend will continue in February. In some cities with strong demand support and cities with strong policy support, the rhythm of market bottoming and recovery will be significantly accelerated. The market is still promising.”
"For the second-hand housing market, it continued to cool down in the second half of last year, so to a large extent some potential transaction demand was suppressed. Similar demand suppression also makes it possible to release it in the future." Yan Yuejin reminded, "Currently in the In the second-hand housing market, we must pay close attention to its linkage with the first-hand housing. If the first-hand housing starts to hype in the future, then some pressure will also be transmitted to the second-hand housing market. In addition, from a general perspective, second-hand housing can also enjoy better this year. Credit policy support will itself be in a bottoming-recovery process.”