Will Davutoglu and Babacan nominate the leader of the opposition against Erdogan?

The meeting of six Turkish opposition parties and their agreement to return to the parliamentary system if they win the elections is still a controversial issue and curiosity in the country, especially with regard to its ability to present a consensual candidate to run in the presidential elections against Erdogan.

With the frequent indications issued by the opposition leader and President of the Republican People's Party, Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu, about his desire to run, attention is turning to the two new parties founded by Ahmet Davutoğlu and Ali Babacan - former leaders of the Justice and Development Party - and their position on the candidacy of "yesterday's enemy is today's friend."

Davutoglu resigned from the presidency of Justice and Development and the government in May 2016 following disagreements with President Erdogan and remained a deputy in Parliament until 2018, without prominent activity, and he was absent or absent from public life and the media, except for the night of the failed coup in 2016, and it was clear that he did not support the constitutional amendment that was approved Transition to the presidential system in 2017

schism

For very long years, both Davutoglu and Ali Babacan held very high positions in the ruling party and the government and were close and reliable "companions" of Erdogan.

The second held the helm of the Turkish economy until approximately 2015, and was called the maker of the Turkish economic renaissance with the Justice and Development, in addition to holding the positions of Minister of Foreign Affairs for a short period in the beginning, Deputy Prime Minister in two governments and a representative of Parliament in 4 legislative terms.

The first rose in positions from an advisor to the Prime Minister to a Minister of Foreign Affairs to a Prime Minister and the Justice and Development Party to succeed Erdogan, who was elected president in 2014, where he headed 3 successive governments, in addition to being a member of Parliament in 3 legislative terms.

Davutoglu resigned from the presidency of Justice and Development and the government in May 2016 following disagreements with President Erdogan and remained a deputy in Parliament until 2018, without prominent activity, and he was absent or absent from public life and the media, except for the night of the failed coup in 2016, and it was clear that he did not support the constitutional amendment that was approved Transition to the presidential system in 2017.

After the municipal elections in which his party lost the municipalities of Istanbul and Ankara, Davutoğlu issued the famous "Manifesto" in which he recounted his criticisms of Justice and Development and Erdogan, and then resigned from the party in 2019 (in anticipation of being expelled from it) to establish the Future Party in December of the same year.

As for Ali Babacan, he had resigned from the party in 2019, before engaging in lengthy discussions with a number of politicians and former leaders in the Justice and Development, to announce the establishment of the Progress and Democracy Party in March 2020.

complex calculations

The calculations of the two parties seem more complicated than the other parties because their positions are clearly different. They are opposed to Erdogan and have emerged from the mantle of justice and development, but they are also from the same intellectual and political background, and they are also former prominent leaders in the party and the government.

This means that they have fingerprints in the achievements of the Justice and Development and its path on the one hand, and a rivalry with the opposition, especially the republican people, on the other.

Therefore, their options are limited, precise and difficult from the first moment, since - in theory - they cannot ally with the Justice and Development from which they split, nor with the opposition, especially the Republican people, with whom they differ and radically differ with them, historically, intellectually and politically.

The two parties partially overcame this dilemma by participating in the meetings to discuss the return to the parliamentary system in addition to the four parties that had joined the opposition coalition in the 2019 municipal elections.

Davutoglu and Babacan attended the meeting of the heads of the six parties a few days ago, without announcing their joining the opposition coalition.

In light of the many indications issued by opposition leader Kılıçdaroğlu that he wants to run for the presidency, a valid question arises about the two men’s position on this candidacy, especially since the man and his party are considered a historical and traditional opponent to them, before they were united by the rejection of the presidential system and opposition to Erdogan recently.

Several options

It is not certain that Kılıçdaroğlu will be the candidate of the opposition coalition in the upcoming presidential elections, but he will - in light of his desire - have the best luck for that, given that he heads the most popular party and an electoral reservoir among the opposition parties, as well as owning the decision of his party thanks to the powers granted to him by the Parties Law .

Thus, the selection of a consensual candidate for the opposition is still a possibility rather than inevitable, in addition to that candidate being Kılıçdaroğlu himself.

Rather, we can say that the opposition’s agreement on one candidate seems more difficult today than the 2018 elections, when the opposition failed to present a consensual candidate and its votes were scattered among several candidates.

In addition, the upcoming elections are the first that the two new parties, “The Future” and “Democracy and Progress,” will contest, and therefore they are faced with two choices, either entering Parliament and confirming presence on the political arena or remaining on the sidelines of the scene and perhaps decay and failure, as many previous experiences of a split Leaders of major and powerful parties.

This meaning, the unbridled desire for success, may impose difficult and complex choices on the two parties, but their final decision will often be delayed until the election scene crystallizes in terms of the date, opportunities, results of opinion polls, names of candidates, and existing and potential alliances.

The two parties' nomination of a figure like Kılıçdaroğlu, if it happens, will weaken her position among the conservatives, the segment they mainly address, and expose them to widespread criticism from Erdogan and Justice and Development.

But it may be their choice if they do not find another way to enter Parliament, as the Republican People's Party has the possibility of presenting some of their candidates on its list or allying with them individually if they are not original members of the opposition alliance.

What can prevent this is several things, foremost of which is the possibility of amending the electoral law and lowering the electoral threshold from 10% to 5% or 7%, for example - which is a proposition and possible - so that we can bet on entering the elections alone or with a third alliance away from the two existing alliances .

It is also usually better for newly established parties to run in the presidential elections with their own candidate, as this would - regardless of his chances of winning - increase the momentum of their electoral campaign and thus increase their chances in the parliamentary elections.

Finally, it is important to note that the two mentioned parties have not yet made up their minds regarding joining the opposition coalition. Rather, the Happiness Party itself, which ran in the previous elections as part of it, has not yet made up its mind and is still waiting for the pre-election scene to be clear.

In their eagerness to do so, the two parties confirmed and the rest of the parties agreed to that, that the issue of joining the coalition as well as the issue of the presidential election candidate was never raised in the meeting of the heads of the aforementioned parties, to the extent that the Future Party led by Davutoglu postponed its signature on the text agreed upon between these parties more than Once, in order not to give the impression that he had become part of the opposition alliance.

According to this logic, it is not difficult to expect that these two parties will seek to enter the elections on their own if they are able to do so, by amending the parties' law as mentioned above, or by increasing their chances in opinion polls until the election date.

This is a possible scenario, with the formation of a third coalition that includes some right-wing parties, such as the conservative Saadeh, the nationalist party, and perhaps others.

Perhaps we are not exaggerating if we say that the alliance of the two parties with the Justice and Development itself, despite everything that happened, also remains a possible (albeit weak) possibility in the event of a change in the political scene or opinion polls, as the main concern of all parties is to win the upcoming elections with what can bring the rivals together. beside each other, and therefore there are many examples in the modern history of Turkey.

In conclusion, it is still too early to talk about a consensus candidate for the opposition versus Erdogan in the upcoming presidential elections, as well as the support of the "Future" and "Democracy and Progress" parties, especially if this candidate is Kılıçdaroğlu.

It is obvious that just their candidacy or their support for him does not necessarily mean that he will raise his shares by winning the elections, let alone guaranteeing him victory, because the opinions and votes of voters do not automatically and directly follow the instructions of the heads of the parties they support.

The Turkish voter can distinguish between who he chooses in the presidential, parliamentary, and municipal elections according to several criteria, and it is difficult to imagine the conservative or Islamic segment electing a person like Kılıçdaroğlu, even if the aforementioned parties tended to support him as a consensual opposition candidate.

The upcoming presidential and parliamentary elections in Turkey are far from simple and straightforward mathematical calculations and are closer to a complex chess game in which any move can transform the course of the game as well as the outcome of the match.