Presidential in France: has Emmanuel Macron already won?

Audio 02:56

Emmanuel Macron has still not declared his candidacy ahead of the fight for the presidency Tobias SCHWARZ POOL/AFP/File

By: Anthony Lattier Follow

3 mins

Emmanuel Macron is expected to announce his candidacy for the French presidential election in the coming days.

While the head of state is still not officially in the race, a question arises: has he already won?

Advertising

The answer is obviously no!

No one knows in advance who will win a ballot.

There may be surprises, reversals, nothing ever goes as planned.

But in reality, that's the question that everyone is asking behind the scenes: are the chips down?

It is an observation: less than two months before the presidential election, Emmanuel Macron is at the top of all the polls, which invariably give him the winner of the second round, regardless of his opponent!

Under these conditions, a certain confidence reigns within the executive.

A “prudent” trust obviously, everyone calls for “vigilance”, we assure that we are preparing to fight a tough battle.

But, at the same time, members of the government mischievously suggest that it does not look too bad, that the president has, according to a minister, “a good chance”.

“Overconfidence”

It's not for nothing that the President's grumblers – the Christophe Castaners, the Richard Ferrands, those with experience – have been warning their troops for several months: be careful not to be too optimistic!

It is because they feel that there is a scent of carelessness within Macronie.

“ 

,” worries a government adviser.

Because behind the scenes, we think a lot about… after April 25th.

What reforms should be launched immediately?

Should we change Prime Minister or not before the legislative elections?

Who will be a candidate for the legislative elections?

How will the majority be recomposed?

As if in the end, the presidential election was only a formality… On several occasions in recent months, Emmanuel Macron himself has reframed his ministers whom he accuses of thinking a little too much about the future…

On the left, we play the next move

It must also be said that some of Emmanuel Macron's opponents also seem to have endorsed the defeat.

Several candidates are indeed playing the next shot.

The left (except on the side of Jean-Luc Mélenchon) has few illusions: it is too divided and too weak.

This is precisely why all the parties (socialist, communist, ecologist, etc.) refuse to withdraw their candidates: to ensure minimum visibility, in anticipation of the June legislative elections.

Around who will recompose this political space after the last candidacy of Jean-Luc Mélenchon?

Who will become hegemonic on the left?

This is what bothers everyone, more than a hypothetical presidential victory in 2022.

Union of Rights Project 

The questions are similar on the right and on the extreme right.

This is also how the recent defections from Marine Le Pen's camp should be interpreted.

Even if the polls show that she is, for the moment, the best able to qualify in the second round, many in her camp anticipate a new failure which would be fateful for the candidate of the National Rally.

They therefore line up behind the one who is dynamic, Eric Zemmour, who could win the bet after the election.

The Reconquest candidate also plays the next move without hiding with his project to unite the rights. 

Even if everything is still possible, this election is therefore for many decided in advance.

What counts in the minds of several candidates is to be ahead of their direct competitors, to be in a position of strength for the future, considering that Macron has - almost - already won him. 

Newsletter

Receive all the international news directly in your mailbox

I subscribe

Follow all the international news by downloading the RFI application

google-play-badge_FR

• Presidential France 2022

• Emmanuel Macron

• Marine Le Pen

• Eric Zemmour

• Jean-Luc Melenchon

• French politics

On the same subject

Supporters of Emmanuel Macron stage their unity

French presidential election 2022: Éric Woerth announces his support for Emmanuel Macron

Presidential in France: Nicolas Bay takes the plunge and joins Éric Zemmour