The recent tensions between Russia on the one hand, and Ukraine and NATO led by the United States of America on the other hand, are only the result of preludes that preceded it about 15 years ago.

Since Russian President Vladimir Putin gave his famous speech at the Munich Security Conference in 2007, relations between Moscow and the West have deteriorated significantly, eventually reaching the brink of a new Cold War.

Munich Conference

February 10, 2007: Russian President Vladimir Putin, in his speech before the Munich Conference, directed severe criticism at the West, and stressed that a unipolar model is no longer possible in the contemporary world.

In his speech, Putin held Western countries, led by the United States of America, responsible for trying to impose their own standards on other countries, stressing the need for the United Nations Charter to be the only mechanism for adopting decisions on authorizing the use of military force.

Putin warned against the continued expansion of NATO towards Russia's borders.

April 2008: At its summit in Bucharest, Romania, NATO formally pledged to grant membership to both Georgia and Ukraine, when they "consistently meet the standards of the alliance."

- This announcement drew strong criticism from Moscow, where the Russian Chief of Staff at the time, Yuri Baluyevsky, warned that Moscow, if these promises were implemented, would be forced to take "military and other measures to ensure its interests near its borders."

The conflict in South Ossetia

August 8, 2008: Georgia launched an attack on South Ossetia, and tried to impose control over the republic, which Georgia considers part of its territory.

The then Russian President Dmitry Medvedev announced the launch of a "military operation to implement peace" in the conflict zone.

August 12, 2008: The Russian army expelled Georgian forces from the territories of South Ossetia and the Republic of Abkhazia, and took control of a number of Georgian towns and cities.

August 16, 2008: Medvedev signed with the presidents of South Ossetia and Abkhazia and Georgian President Mikhail Saakashvili a plan to settle the conflict.

During the war, the West sided with Georgia, but the United States and its allies did not provide military support to the Saakashvili government.

Later, senior Russian officials - including Putin - expressed their conviction that the Republicans in the White House were behind the planning of the Georgian attack, with the aim of raising the level of popularity of the Republican candidate in the upcoming elections - at that time - John McCain.

April 2009: Albania and Croatia join NATO in the sixth wave of NATO expansion.

December 2010: At their summit in Astana, the member states of the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe - including the United States and Russia - adopted a statement expressing their commitment to the "European Security Charter" stipulated in the "Istanbul Document" adopted by the organization in November November 1999.

Libya war

March 2011: Putin - who was the Russian Prime Minister at this time - strongly criticized the UN Security Council resolution that authorized the intervention of Western countries in Libya, describing it as "a call for a crusade."

February 2012: Russia used the right to video in the UN Security Council against a draft judge authorizing a Western military campaign in Syria similar to the one that took place in Libya.

September 2015: Russia announced its military intervention in Syria to support the Bashar al-Assad regime.

- The sessions of the UN Security Council in recent years have repeatedly become an arena for a sharp argument between Russia and the West over Syria's chemical file.

December 2012: Tensions between Moscow and Washington escalated due to the US adoption of the first version of the "Magnitsky Act" to impose sanctions on "persons responsible for violating human rights and the principle of the rule of law" in Russia.

August 2013: Russian-American relations witnessed significant tension, as a scheduled visit by US President Barack Obama to Moscow was canceled due to Russia granting asylum to the former CIA and National Security agent Edward Snowden, whom Washington accuses of leaking sensitive documents that shed light on the The US government wiretaps the citizens of many countries.

Ukraine crisis

November 21, 2013: The crisis in Ukraine began when its pro-Russian president, Viktor Yanukovych, suspended preparations for the implementation of an association agreement with the European Union.

The Ukrainian capital witnessed widespread protests and friction between separatist movements and the Ukrainian regular forces.

Disturbances swept through some eastern and southern regions of Ukraine, which were inhabited by a majority of Russian-speaking citizens, from whom Yanukovych drew most of his support.

February 22, 2014: The revolution of mass protests from supporters of the agreement overthrew the president, who was ousted and fled the country.

February 23, 2014: The Acting President of the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine took the position of Alexander Turchynov, a politician, screenwriter and economist.

March 2014: After Russia invaded Ukrainian regions, another political crisis arose, as it annexed the Ukrainian autonomous region of Crimea, which was rejected by the West.

US Secretary of State John Kerry commented on the change in Russian-Western relations as a result of the events in Ukraine by saying that the term "restart" remained in the past, adding, "We have entered a completely dysfunctional phase of relations with Russia."

April 2014: War breaks out in Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts between pro-Russian separatists and the Ukrainian government.

September 20, 2014: Representatives of the Ukrainian government and separatists sponsored by Russia and the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe signed the "Minsk Agreement 1" in Minsk, the capital of Belarus.

As a result of these events, the United States and its Western allies imposed significant economic, financial, and trade sanctions on Russia, while Moscow adopted countermeasures.

- Against the background of the events in Ukraine, the US administration launched the "European Deterrence Initiative" aimed at strengthening the United States' military presence in the old continent to "deter Russian aggression", especially in Eastern Europe.

The US Congress has adopted a bill on "supporting freedom in Ukraine" that would allow Washington to export arms to the Kiev government.

expulsion of diplomats

December 2016: US President Obama issued an order imposing a new package of sanctions on Russia, blaming Moscow for "interfering in the US presidential election" and for "pressing American diplomats working in its territory."

- Under this order, 35 Russian diplomats and their families were urgently expelled from the United States and Russia was prevented from reaching two buildings belonging to its representative in New York and its embassy in Washington.

- These events became the beginning of what is known as the "Embassy War", i.e. a series of expulsions of diplomats between Russia and many Western countries on various occasions in recent years.

June 5, 2017: Montenegro officially joined NATO in the seventh wave of NATO expansion.

- March 4, 2018: Britain announced that Sergei Skripal, a former Russian intelligence officer who was previously convicted of spying in Russia, and his daughter Yulia were poisoned in the city of Salisbury.

The British authorities blamed the Russian intelligence for being behind this operation, saying that the substance in which it was used bore the name "Novichok".

Russia rejected London's accusations, considering them a provocation orchestrated by British or American intelligence, and indicated that London rejected all its proposals for a joint investigation, in addition to preventing Moscow from reaching Skripal and his daughter (a Russian citizen) after their recovery.

The Skripal affair resulted in a widespread diplomatic crisis and the West imposed a new wave of sanctions against Russia, in addition to a new episode of the "Diplomatic War", in which London expelled 33 Russian diplomats, and most of the European Union, Canada, Australia and other countries took similar measures, while Russia responded in kind. .

2019 and 2020: The administration of US President Donald Trump withdrew from the Treaties on the Elimination of Intermediate and Short-Range Missiles (1987) and Open Skies (1992).

Russia, for its part, announced its withdrawal from these two treaties as well.

March 27, 2020: North Macedonia officially joins NATO in the eighth and final wave of NATO expansion.

Alexei Navalny

January 2021: Russian dissident Alexei Navalny returned to his country after spending 5 months in Germany, where he received emergency medical treatment after being poisoned with the nerve agent "novichok" in Russia.

While he was on his way to the passport control office at Moscow's Sheremeto Airport, Navalny was arrested by Moscow, an act condemned by Washington and other Western capitals, and the European Union and an adviser to US President Joe Biden demanded his immediate release.

The Russian authorities have accused Navalny of violating the terms of a suspended sentence and violating his probationary period as a result of a previous conviction, and the prison authority is seeking to convert these violations into a prison sentence.

At the beginning of the era of the new US President Joe Biden, Moscow and Washington were able to agree to extend the START-3 agreement concluded between them in 2010 on reducing nuclear weapons between the two countries.

June 16, 2021: Russian and American Presidents Putin and Biden hold their first summit meeting in Geneva, Switzerland, after Washington imposed new sanctions on Moscow.

These talks culminated in tangible results that gave rise to cautious hope about the future of relations between the two countries, including an agreement to resume consultations on strategic security and information security, in addition to an agreement on the return of the Russian and American ambassadors to Washington and Moscow after conducting consultations for about two months in their countries.

October 6, 2021: NATO announced the expulsion of 8 members of the Russian mission to it and the abolition of two other jobs in it, which resulted in a reduction from 20 to 10 people, claiming that these Russian diplomats engaged in "alleged hostile activities".

October 18, 2021: In return, the Russian Foreign Ministry announced the suspension of the work of its mission to NATO for an indefinite period, in addition to the suspension of the work of the Alliance Military Communication Mission in Moscow.

This led to the suspension of direct contacts between Moscow and NATO, especially since the dialogue between the two sides in the form of the "Russia-NATO Council" had been suspended since the summer of 2019, when Moscow accused the alliance of focusing on the Ukrainian file at the expense of other issues.

- October 21 and 22, 2021: NATO defense ministers approved a secret plan to "deter a possible Russian address", and the media reported that it provided for the alliance's preparation for a simultaneous attack on Russia in the Black and Baltic Seas, including the use of nuclear and space weapons and operations cyber.

This came against the backdrop of Russia's repeated warning that it had monitored a significant increase in NATO's military activities in the Black Sea basin in the previous months.

- November 18, 2021: Putin, during an expanded meeting held at the headquarters of the Russian Foreign Ministry, announced for the first time what was later called the "Security Guarantees Initiative".

In this speech, Putin stressed the need to halt NATO's eastward expansion and to provide Russia with long-term security guarantees.

- December 2021: The Russian Foreign Ministry, commissioned by Putin, prepared two draft agreements, the first with NATO and the second with the United States, which proposed to conclude them to create a system of mutual security guarantees in order to reduce military tensions in Europe.

- This initiative stipulates the necessity for the two parties to adhere to the principle of equal and indivisible security in Europe and to refrain from deploying offensive systems that pose a threat to each other, in addition to proposals to take steps with a view to increasing transparency and mutual trust and preventing possible military accidents.

NATO expansion

Russia asked the West for guarantees to stop the expansion of NATO and the alliance to abandon its promises regarding the accession of Ukraine and Georgia to it.

January 10, 12 and 13, 2022: Russia held talks with the United States and NATO in Geneva, Brussels and Vienna, asking the West to provide a written response to the Russian initiative quickly without prolonging the matter.

- The United States and NATO, in their response, expressed their complete rejection of the pledge to stop NATO expansion, expressing at the same time their readiness to work on a number of provisions of the Russian initiative related to arms control and increasing transparency.

- Russia expressed its disappointment with this response, accusing the West of ignoring its main concerns, and warned against focusing on the Ukrainian file in the consultations.

Kiev and the West accused Russia of amassing forces at the borders of Ukraine, while Moscow warned that Kiev is bringing military reinforcements to the Donbass region, against the backdrop of a significant increase in the number of ceasefire violations there.

In the spring, Russia conducted extensive exercises for the landing forces of the Southern Military District forces, especially in the Crimea, and concluded last April with the announcement of the return of the participating forces to the permanently stationed areas.

NATO launched its largest maneuvers in Europe since the Cold War, called Defender Europe-21.

Western media and officials have begun to talk about Russia amassing forces at the borders of Ukraine in preparation for its "invasion".

The number of Russian forces at the borders of Ukraine has reached 130,000, in addition to Russia conducting joint maneuvers at the southern borders of Belarus.

Senior officials in the United States and Britain have talked in recent days about a “Russian invasion that could happen at any moment,” while a number of Western media outlets published reports about the expected date and paths of the “invasion.” Bloomberg mistakenly published a story about the start of the war. Russian intervention in Ukraine later deleted.

A number of countries, led by the United States, Britain and Canada, have evacuated their diplomats from Ukraine, while a number of airlines suspended their flights to Kiev.

The United States, Britain and the Baltic states provided military aid to the Kiev government to strengthen its defense capabilities in the face of the threat of "Russian invasion", while Washington and London sent additional forces to the European continent.

For its part, Russia has repeatedly denied having any intention of attacking Ukraine, stressing that the movements of its forces within its borders do not pose a threat to anyone.

- Russia accused the West of fueling hysteria about Ukraine in order to justify pumping weapons into Ukraine and giving the Kiev government a cover to evade the implementation of the Minsk agreements and to make a new attempt to resolve the Donbass issue by force.