Still, I don’t really understand how it happened, but at the moment it is a fait accompli: from the point of view of European, and even global energy, being Ukraine is, excuse me, fate and a pre-planned disaster.
They are still only talking about the war, but, thank God, no one has attacked anyone, there are no sanctions - neither in their mild nor in their hellish execution.
Even the American President Biden calmly calls his Russian counterpart, the French President and the German Chancellor come to Moscow in turn, and Sergei Viktorovich Lavrov reports to Vladimir Vladimirovich Putin that, despite the obvious difficulties and complexity of the negotiations, diplomatic methods have not yet been exhausted.
That is, by and large, minus Ukraine, everything is pretty stable.
And the price of gas in Europe at the opening of trading on Monday for the first time since the end of January again rose above $1,000 per 1,000 cubic meters.
m. That is, at the moment the price of the March futures at the TTF hub in the Netherlands rose even to $ 1031.8 per 1 thousand cubic meters.
m. Then, however, it again returned to $980, and on Tuesday it completely fell to $809 with further prospects for rapid growth.
And this is a very unpleasant volatility, which can often indicate readiness for the start of a new price rally, which the European energy industry is now completely useless for.
At least that's what data from the London ICE exchange shows.
Moreover, stockbrokers explain what is happening only by the growth of tension around the territory of Ukraine, which is unfortunate in every sense.
There are no other objective reasons for the current volatility.
We say: their karma is somehow exceptionally unhealthy.
It would seem that only everything in the continental energy markets has somehow stabilized, albeit not at a price level that is very comfortable for the economies of Western countries - well, anyway.
In addition, this high price level, fortunately for those Europeans who sit on long-term contracts with the Russian Gazprom with an oil price formula, is still decently compensated.
The most important thing for them now is at least some kind of stability.
At least at the current level.
And then, sorry, again... Ukraine.
And they still don’t seem to have a war, and the Russians are in no hurry to go anywhere and even regularly fulfill, among other things, a long-term contract for the transit of that same gas.
And still one continuous concern and evacuation.
But this is not all European troubles received through all the same Ukraine.
As follows from the RBP and GSA Platform data, at the auction held on Monday, Gazprom did not book additional capacities for the transit of natural gas through Ukraine.
And also did not order pumping through Poland through the Yamal-Europe gas pipeline in March.
At the same time, Gazprom itself has already habitually explained its position by saying that it fully satisfies the demand of its long-term European customers.
And the reduced flows reflect not so much the failure to launch the completed Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline, but a completely banal lack of requests from customers.
What - and we have written about this more than once - is also not at all surprising.
Germany, which is preparing to become the main gas hub of Europe, will naturally reformat the markets for itself: and one should not consider German business circles to be some kind of teddy bears.
These are very tough players.
And they, apparently, do not really like the one built by the Dutch and, first of all, by the British (who “advised” the European Commission on energy reform, in general, is an open secret, a classic of the genre: for some reason, it is a British consultant behind any Baltic European Commissioner, and the name the same Andris Piebalgs, even in European bureaucratic circles, it has become, to put it mildly, a household name) a spot pricing system that will simply destroy the European - consider German - industry.
So the logic of big German business here is also quite clear: the Germans should set gas prices in Europe.
Otherwise, no way.
And for this they need the Russians - as reliable suppliers of energy raw materials.
And not the London ICE exchange or the Dutch TTF hub.
As a matter of fact, it is this bizarre interweaving of German and British energy, economic and financial interests and contradictions that we are honored to observe with you now (well, at least not in our own skin).
And part of this entertaining game is the European energy deficit.
In a scarce market and at peak prices, you know, individual issues are much easier to solve than in the background of excessive abundance.
Cynical, but unfortunately true.
In a word, if there are questions about the occupancy of European UGS facilities (and it’s somehow quite dull there now, no matter how cheerfully German politicians report to the Bundestag), the Ukrainian GTS or the Polish section of the Yamal-Europe gas pipeline, they should be asked here to the buyer, not the supplier.
With a supplier, everything is simple - even the same Putin spoke about this more than once from the highest tribunes, although this is not a royal affair.
Submit your application and we will consider it.
For us, it's just business.
Well, as for Ukraine, it is almost non-existent on the energy maps of Europe now.
She actually sawed herself out of there by constant scandals with the Russians.
And the place that was previously occupied by Ukraine on the energy maps of Europe is now occupied by the Federal Republic of Germany.
Well, Ukraine (at least from the point of view of energy supplies with its GTS, which is in a frankly deplorable state) has long been no longer a prize, but a banal toxic burden.
Or, if you like, even a punishment somewhere.
Not because, of course, nobody needs Ukraine in its current form — it’s just an asset with a very high degree of toxicity.
And because of this toxicity (even with the help of the virtual and propaganda “war” imposed on this territory so far, fortunately), it manages to seriously harm quite real, and not virtual, energy markets in Europe.
On level ground, as they say.
So you will involuntarily think about the, so to speak, metaphysical aspect of what is happening: it really looks like a symbolic “punishment by Ukraine”.
And we even seem to guess for whose particular sins...
The point of view of the author may not coincide with the position of the editors.