Sales of TOP100 real estate companies in January fell by nearly 40% year-on-year

　　Our reporter Zhao Xueyi trainee reporter Li Yucheng

　　According to the sales briefings released by listed real estate companies, Gemdale Group, Logan Group, Times China Holdings, Fantasia Holdings and many other real estate companies saw their sales in January fell sharply year-on-year.

Institutional data shows that the average sales of TOP100 real estate companies in January fell by nearly 23% year-on-year, and the overall year-on-year decline was nearly 40%.

　　From the end of January to the beginning of February, the home-buying fever that was common in previous years also disappeared.

According to CRIC data, between January 24 and February 6, new supply in 40 key cities fell by 23% from the same period in 2021 and by 20% from 2019.

　　In this regard, Chen Sheng, president of the China Real Estate Data Research Institute, said in an interview with a reporter from Securities Daily that the epidemic control has had a relatively large impact on returning home to buy properties. The public's attention to real estate sales has declined, and industry sales have declined. Negative growth is the overall manifestation of the current real estate market.

　　Industry sales scale

　　down 40% year-on-year

　　According to the data, Gemdale Group realized a contract value of 14.96 billion yuan in January, down 38.36% year-on-year; Logan Group’s equity sales in January was 9.01 billion yuan, down 43.72% year-on-year; Times China Holdings and Fantasia Holdings’ sales in January were year-on-year respectively. Down 14.40% and 77.77%.

　　Falling into negative growth is not an isolated phenomenon. CRIC data shows that in January, the top 100 real estate companies achieved sales of 525.6 billion yuan, and the monthly performance scale decreased by 39.6% year-on-year and 43% lower than the average monthly level in 2021.

　　According to statistics from the China Index Research Institute, in January 2022, the average sales of TOP100 real estate companies was 6.18 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 23.1%.

Among them, there were 15 housing companies with sales exceeding 10 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 14; 22 housing companies with sales between 5 billion and 10 billion yuan, a decrease of 31 from the same period last year.

　　Faced with sales pressure, the phenomenon of price-for-volume exchange has increased in order to speed up the return of funds.

From the perspective of the average sales price, the average equity sales price of Logan Group in January fell by 47.07% year-on-year to 17,800 yuan / square meter, which was almost halved compared with the same period last year, and also decreased by 27.68% month-on-month; Times China Holdings, Fantasia's The average selling price decreased by 16.58% and 11.62% year-on-year respectively, and decreased by 4.78% and 2.58% month-on-month respectively.

　　In an interview with a reporter from Securities Daily, IPG China Chief Economist Bai Wenxi said that when the industry is experiencing negative growth, it is necessary for industry regulators and housing-related financial departments to jointly formulate measures to promote market recovery and industry recovery based on market changes and current demand. Policy measures to promote the real estate industry to achieve a virtuous circle as soon as possible.

　　Spring is not closed

　　Difficult to support real estate sales

　　Judging from past experience, many developers tend to use slogans such as "special housing" and "end-of-the-year great deals" at the end of the year to attract buyers and drive sales with low prices.

　　But this year, that vision fell through.

Although the property markets around the world do not close during the Spring Festival, buyers are not very willing to buy houses, and transactions are relatively limited, making it difficult to become a pillar to support the sales of housing companies.

　　For example, Country Garden, a real estate company known for its layout in third- and fourth-tier cities, had attributable sales of 36.360 billion yuan in January, a year-on-year decrease of 9.82%; the average sales price was 7870.13 yuan per square meter, a year-on-year decrease of 10.99%.

　　CRIC monitoring data shows that during the Spring Festival week from January 31 to February 6, 2022, except for a small amount of supply in a few hot cities such as Shanghai and Nanjing, most cities have zero supply, and the transaction volume in 40 key cities is only 445,000. Square meters, down 84% month-on-month and 40% year-on-year.

　　According to Zhang Dawei, chief analyst of Centaline Real Estate, compared with the normal years before the epidemic, the transaction volume of returning home during the Spring Festival in 2022 has dropped by more than 30%.

　　In Bai Wenxi's view, there may be two reasons behind the subsidence of the homebuying fever. One is that "Chinese New Year on the spot" has reduced the number of people returning home during the Spring Festival, which is often the most important time for home buyers; The structural changes of the real estate market and the policy of "housing, not speculating" have greatly reduced the real estate investment function in third- and fourth-tier cities, and increased the risk of falling prices, which has greatly reduced the enthusiasm for returning home to buy properties.

　　The direct reason for the fading of the fever of returning home is that the number of people returning home has dropped sharply under the epidemic prevention and control. Yuan Shuai, deputy secretary-general of the Rural Revitalization and Construction Committee of the China Cultural Management Association, told the Securities Daily reporter, "The fundamental reason is that in the past two years, policy Under the control, the demand for investment housing has gradually shrunk, and the rigid demand is insufficient, unable to digest the excess local supply."

　　Yuan Shuai said that the main purpose of home buyers who have returned to their hometowns in the past two years is to consider that there is room for growth in house prices in the future, and hope to enjoy the dividends of real estate appreciation. After the dividends are reduced, the fading of the homebuying fever will become inevitable.

　　Under the pressure, a series of positive signals from the property market are being released, which is expected to give home buyers a certain degree of confidence.

　　According to the report of the Shell Research Institute, the central bank lowered the LPR in January, and Beihai, Nanning, Zigong and Fuzhou respectively introduced provident fund regulation policies to lower the threshold for housing provident fund purchases.

　　The latest research report of CITIC Securities believes that the premium of mortgage loan interest rates relative to LPR (the benchmark interest rate before the reform) has reached a historic high in the third quarter of 2021, which provides a basis for the rapid decline in mortgage interest rates from 2022. potential energy.

With the release of the existing demand for mortgage loans, the behavior of financial institutions to reduce mortgage prices in order to win a larger share will help stabilize the Chinese real estate market after March 2022, but there will be no significant rise in house prices.

(Securities Daily)