On February 13, the heads of 6 Turkish opposition parties met in order to agree on a preliminary road map to return to the parliamentary system in the country after the 2023 elections. The meeting included parties from different and sometimes contradictory intellectual, political and ideological walks, which increased the importance of the meeting and the importance of its analysis and foresight The future of cooperation between these parties.

What is announced regarding this deep polarization is that it revolves around the presidential system. The ruling coalition wants its continuation, while the opposition coalition wants to return to the parliamentary system. In essence, it can be said that Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan is the focus of this polarization, as the two aforementioned alliances include his supporters and opponents, respectively.

polarization

Under the parliamentary system that ruled Turkey for decades, there were periods of intense polarization, but it was ideological, between the right and the left or secularists and Islamists, for example, and partly does not include the political and partisan map in the country as a whole, but that has changed in the last few years.

With the referendum on the constitutional amendment that stipulated the transition to the presidential system in April 2017, features of comprehensive polarization that cross ideologies and trends began to crystallize in the country.

After the referendum, a law was passed allowing electoral alliances between parties, and as a result two alliances were formed: “The Public” comprising the ruling Justice and Development Party and the National Movement, and “The People” comprising the Republican, Good, Democratic and Happiness parties.

Initial estimates indicated that it was polarization based on temporary electoral alliances, and the leaders of some of these parties have already stated in this direction, but the recent developments in the country breathed life into it and brought it back to the fore.

What is announced regarding this deep polarization is that it revolves around the presidential system. The ruling coalition wants it to continue, while the opposition coalition wants to return to the parliamentary system. In essence, it can be said that Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan is the focus of this polarization, as the two aforementioned alliances include his supporters and opponents, respectively.

The most prominent feature of the opposition coalition in particular;

It is that it transcends ideologies and brings together those who differ, perhaps even contradictory ones, as it includes the Islamist, the secular, the nationalist, and the center-right parties, some of which were historical opponents of others, as is the case with the Republican People’s Parties and happiness, for example.

The heads of 6 Turkish opposition parties met in order to agree on an initial road map to return to the parliamentary system (social networking sites)

Six parties

With the Corona pandemic and its repercussions on the Turkish economy, as well as with the decline of the Turkish lira in the recent period for reasons that go beyond the space of this article, the opposition renewed calls for early presidential and parliamentary elections for June 2023, on the pretext that there is a crisis of governance and administration in the country and that the current presidency is unable to pass current situation.

What was new in these appeals was the joining of newly established parties, specifically the two parties founded by the former leaders of the ruling party, Ali Babacan (Progress and Democracy Party) and Ahmet Davutoglu (Future), even the latter called for “immediate” and not just “early” elections.

In September 2021, the six parties - the four affiliated with the opposition coalition in addition to the Future, Progress and Democracy - began a series of meetings with the aim of formulating an initial road map to return to the parliamentary system in the country under the slogan "a strengthened parliamentary system." After 4 months of meetings, the heads of these parties met for the first time And they issued a joint statement after 5 and a half hours of discussion.

The joint statement stipulated the conviction of these parties that Turkey is going through "one of the biggest political and economic crises in its history," and described the meeting of their leaders as a "historic event" and "an important step on the path to establishing the future Turkey."

The statement said that the six parties are "determined to establish a strong, just, democratic and guarantor of freedoms, in which the separation of powers is established with an effective and participatory legislative authority, a transparent and accountable executive, and a neutral and independent judiciary."

The joint closing statement also mentioned that the heads of the parties will announce the final text they agreed upon to the people on February 28, which is a significant and symbolic date.

It is the memory of the "white coup" or "postmodern" against the government of Necmettin Erbakan in 1997.

It is very difficult for the aforementioned parties to agree on one candidate to run in the presidential elections in their name against Erdogan.

That was difficult in 2018, and now it seems more difficult with the increase in the number of parties and their different orientations

Unite the opposition?

There is no doubt that the meeting of the mentioned parties, with their divergent and contradictory backgrounds, and their agreement on a common road map regarding the political system in the country;

It is considered something exceptional in the modern political history of Turkey.

Undoubtedly, this was unimaginable only a few years ago, which supports the claim that President Erdogan himself has added to his record of achievements a new one, represented by gathering the opposition against him on one level.

However, does this mean that the opposition alliance has expanded and that all the aforementioned parties strike from one arc and unite on the heart of one man?

We do not believe that, but rather we see that it is a very early assessment and is taken from the image that was presented - despite its importance - and the optimistic statements that were issued.

This is because one of the indications of the disagreement between these parties is that they postponed the aforementioned meeting for a period because of their disagreement about the protocol sitting method and the method of managing the meeting, before they agreed to sit around a “round table” in which no party or president was presented over another, contrary to the desire of the Republican people, the largest of the parties The opposition and its president, Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu.

It is also too early to talk about the expansion of the opposition alliance and the joining of the Future, Progress and Democracy parties to it. This is something that the final statement did not stipulate, nor did the politicians’ statements refer to it. Rather, it is something about which the dispute is known recently.

Moreover, the Future Party led by Davutoğlu initially refused to sign the agreed article for “not giving the impression of joining the coalition.”

This is because the former prime minister (while he was the head of Justice and Development himself) had submitted a proposal to change the name, form, structure and philosophy of the opposition coalition, including equal representation of parties and not accepting the leadership of the Republican people as a prerequisite, apparently to join it, which means that he still refuses to join According to the current data.

In addition, the Happiness Party always repeats that its final decision regarding electoral alliances will be taken when elections are announced and election campaigns begin.

It is also known that the meeting was based on a temporary common goal, which is to reject the presidential system in its current state and return to the parliamentary system, while the confidence gap between some parties still exists and bears the seeds of sustainability.

The possibility of forming a third coalition that includes some new parties is still circulating behind the scenes in the capital, Ankara, and the Happiness and Good Party may be added to it. Therefore, the aforementioned meeting can be considered as an additional negotiating card for these parties.

Finally, it is very difficult for the aforementioned parties to agree on one candidate to run in the presidential elections in their name against Erdogan.

That was difficult in 2018, and now it seems even more difficult with the increase in the number of parties and their different orientations.

Indeed, some parties are not internally compatible so far over who will be their candidate for the elections, in a partisan or consensual manner for all the opposition, such as the Republican people, whose president Kılıçdaroğlu does not hide his desire to run, just like the mayor of Istanbul, Ekrem Imamoglu, who holds party membership and enjoys support from outside .

Finally, the important meeting that included the six parties can be seen as a first step in a long road and not the last, and that the path, let alone its final outcome, cannot be easily predicted.

As for the discussion of the opposition's opportunities in the upcoming elections, it needs a space of its own beyond this article, and it is still too early to discuss it before the semi-final picture of the alliances and the names of the possible candidates becomes clear.

This is with regard to the presidential elections. As for parliament, the opposition coalition, if the two new parties join it and obtain the support of the HDP, will pose a great challenge to the Justice and Development and the ruling coalition, as it has the possibility of winning a simple majority in the next parliament, at least.