Risky environment for Ukraine

The situation on the line of contact in the Donbass is starting to escalate again.

The intensity of artillery shelling has increased, the Armed Forces of Ukraine are transferring heavy equipment, expressly prohibited by the Minsk agreements, and manpower to the front in whole trains.

A Ukrainian sniper killed a DPR defender on Sunday.

In addition, the People’s Militia Department announced the arrival of Polish mercenaries to the territory of Donbass controlled by Kiev “under the guise of instructors sent to participate in a training mission to train Ukrainian military personnel.”

This was announced by the deputy head of the law enforcement agency Eduard Basurin.

In the area of ​​​​the settlement of Popasnaya, two groups of people were seen, each with up to 20 people, “in mixed uniforms of a tactical type.”

“It has been established that these persons speak Polish and arrived to perform tasks in the area of ​​​​responsibility of the 24th mechanized brigade.

Their mission is to carry out, together with units of the Ukrainian special operations forces, targeted sabotage and terrorist acts aimed at disabling life support facilities, social infrastructure and intimidating the local population, ”Basurin said.

According to him, the 54th and 56th brigades of the Armed Forces of Ukraine were replenished with two brigades of the "Right Sector" *, numbering 70-80 people each.

These units occupy "positions in the first echelon, on the northern and western approaches to Donetsk."

To be honest, I don't think that this is a preparation for a large-scale offensive, as Donetsk, Lugansk and Moscow are sure of it.

I think that Kiev remembers well the words of Vladimir Putin about the loss of statehood by Ukraine, if the Ukrainian leadership makes such a decision.

Simply put, the words of the Russian president mean that Russia will intervene if there is a lot of bloodshed.

The option of peace enforcement, tested in 2008, is more relevant than ever, and if an act of aggression is committed by Ukraine, as Georgia did in its time, Moscow will have something to answer the accusations.

It is clear that no victory of the Armed Forces of Ukraine shines.

I would venture to suggest that aggravating the situation is a kind of response from Kiev to the pressure that its Western partners, primarily Washington, have begun to exert on it, increasingly insistently calling for the implementation of the Minsk agreements.

This statement was made by US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken during a visit to Kiev.

He even said that the agreements did not need to be revised.

Then the commitment to the agreements was confirmed by President Joe Biden.

State Department spokesman Ned Price spoke in a similar vein.

And then - as if from a cornucopia: British Prime Minister Boris Johnson, German Foreign Minister Annalena Burbock, French Foreign Ministry, Turkish head, Italian Prime Minister, Finnish President, Government of India ...

But the position of Ukrainian officials has not changed for a long time.

Secretary of the National Security and Defense Council Danilov, Foreign Minister Kuleba, Ukraine's representative in the tripartite contact group, and President Zelensky have repeatedly spoken out about the impossibility of implementing the Minsk agreements.

And now Kiev is under pressure from all sides, and one can imagine its reaction.

It is anger and resentment.

The Ukrainian leadership does not express its dissatisfaction directly, but indirectly, creating an extremely risky situation on the line of contact.

This is our answer to the Turkish Sultan.

This strategy is, of course, a failure.

The longer the Ukrainians resist, the more the West will become furious, building up pressure.

He has many levers of influence on the Ukrainian government, starting with loans, without which the Ukrainian economy is not viable, and ending with the denial of political support.

So, no matter how Kiev resists, sooner or later he will have to bow with his head and start doing something.

It is clear that accusations against Russia of non-compliance with the Minsk agreements will continue to sound the same.

But it looks like the patience of the West because of the behavior of Ukraine is coming to an end.

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The point of view of the author may not coincide with the position of the editors.