The perfect storm of infections Omicron, third doses and Covid passport: keys to understanding the peak of infections

• GRACE PAUL

Updated Tuesday, January 25, 2022-02:08

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The slope of January this year translates into infections:

, and the peak is only beginning to be glimpsed (without ruling out spikes).

It is not something new, a year ago we experienced something similar despite the fact that there were many more restrictions on the tablecloth.

And if we look at the years before the pandemic, we will discover that the flu was also raging while we were digesting nougat.

In a way, we were warned, but the number of cases with which we are starting this 2022 is such that it is necessary to rethink individual and collective strategies.

Not all variants spread the same

It is possible that we will look at the

with better eyes because all the signs point to it

, the worst combination of contagion and severity by SARS-CoV-2 recorded so far.

It is also true that we have faced it in a much more favorable scenario, with a

(and yes, also against omicron).

But it may be for this reason that we have paid less attention to

, faster than any other disease known to date.

For a long time,

held first place in the ranking of contagious diseases with an R0 of 15 to 18. This indicator, called the basic reproductive number, refers to the number of people susceptible to being infected by a single subject.

The delta variant has an R0 of 6 and omicron could be around 10 at the very least.

Although some recent publications suggest that this figure could increase to 18, the maximum range attributed to measles, the situation is even worse if it remains at that 10, since the

of the omicron variant is around four days, while Measles needs up to 12 days to develop.

The vaccinated also get infected

Salvador Peiró, epidemiologist and researcher at Fisabio-Public Health, affirms that

, "simply because there are more of them."

The numbers do not deceive, "we have had a million and a half cases in the last 14 days, the accounts do not come out with the unvaccinated", explains Peiró.

In absolute values ​​there is no doubt, but the truth is that

(on the total number of vaccinated and unvaccinated, respectively)

.

In the United States, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) offer us a very similar picture.

According to the latest updates (which still do not fully include the omicron effect),

and up to 14 times more likely to die from it. illness.

Two doses are not enough to prevent contagion

Although the risk is somewhat lower among those vaccinated,

.

"Vaccines -and having passed the infection- reduce the risk of transmission", explains the epidemiologist, "but this protection is reduced over time in both cases and can be differential between variants".

According to the expert, it is estimated that against the omicron variant, someone who received their second dose more than five months ago (or passed the disease) has seen how

.

Of course, we are talking about protection against contagion, since fortunately protection

.

This decrease is what explains the arrival on the scene of the

, and if we turn to data from the US CDC we see that their effectiveness in this regard is also remarkable.

More recent data from Switzerland and Chile confirm this greater protection of third doses, also against omicron, and a greater decrease in the mortality rate from Covid is also observed.

Third doses among the

. If we add this to a scenario of relaxation of measures, the consequences are clear. In the midst of a triumphant speech about the success of vaccination with a complete schedule and what this has meant to save lives and prevent hospitals from collapsing, it is likely that we have

.

"Formal communication underestimates this risk for fear of being interpreted that vaccines do not work," explains Peiró, "but it conveys false security about the protection offered by vaccines, which is extraordinary against the development of severe Covid but not so much for the contagion".

The vaccinated is also contagious

Booster doses not only help improve our protection against contagion, everything is a chain and if we don't get infected we won't be able to infect others either.

"Without the third doses," says the epidemiologist, "the vaccinated can be contagious and the unvaccinated therefore have, above all, an

."

The expert recalls that there are studies (with delta) that point to the important capacity of vaccinated people to infect, a risk that also increases the fewer restrictive measures there are and the more transmissible the variants are.

There are also studies that show a

since they get rid of the disease before, but this shortening is not as relevant.

"If the viral load at the end lasts a day more or a day less", clarifies Peiró, "I don't see it as important, at least not as important as the infectivity at the beginning, when the sociability of people, even asymptomatic and not isolated, it is much greater".

Passport to protect the unvaccinated

If those vaccinated with two doses who received the second more than four or five months ago can easily get (and spread) with omicron, what is the Covid passport for?

In other words,

such as exposure time or the maintenance of non-pharmacological measures such as distance or the mask.

For the epidemiologist, the passport, like other measures of this type, has a lot of

, but at the same time it

to situations in which they could be easily infected and with a worse prognosis than those who have received the full regimen.

And that worse prognosis in turn is what poses an indirect risk for the entire society. Right now

, according to the expert, which means dedicating many resources to them and suspending care for other non-Covid people.

Even so, and considering the speed at which omicron spreads, the unvaccinated will soon cease to be formally vaccinated, either because they are finally vaccinated or because of the 'wild way' (infection), which is formally considered to be They would have put a dose.

"

with greater risks for him and greater costs for the whole of society," says Peiró, "but in terms of transmission, the unvaccinated and infected cease to be a relevant problem... or not more than it representing the two doses versus three".

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