The United Arab Emirates intercepted and destroyed two ballistic missiles launched by the Houthis on Monday (January 24th), a week after the first deadly attack carried out by Yemeni rebels targeting the capital Abu Dhabi.

The target was located some 1,500 kilometers from Sanaa, the Yemeni capital controlled by Shiite rebels.  

In response, the Saudi-led coalition said it had destroyed a "ballistic missile launching platform in the Al Jawf region" in northern Yemen.

Houthi military spokesman Yahya Sare'e claimed responsibility for the attack, saying the missiles targeted Dubai, considered the economic heart of the Middle East, and Al-Dhafra air base in Abu Dhabi, home to American and French soldiers.

A few hours earlier, during the night, projectiles also targeted southern Saudi Arabia: two people were injured in the town of Jazane, while a missile fired at Dhahran Al-Janoub was intercepted.

After launching attacks against Saudi Arabia, at the head of the military coalition which has intervened since 2015 in Yemen to support government forces, the Houthis, supported by Iran, seem determined to widen the conflict until within Emirati borders.

This escalation is a rebel response to Abu Dhabi's military support for forces hostile to the Houthis and which have recently taken over territories from them, particularly in the province of Shabwa, in central Yemen, explains Marc Goutalier, consultant in geostrategy, specialist of the Middle East, and author of the book 'When spring blurs the cards: A strategic history of the Arab borders' (ed. of the Félin).

An escalation facilitated by the improvement of the Houthis' arsenal. 

France 24: how do you analyze the widening of the Yemeni conflict, which now affects the United Arab Emirates

?

Marc Goutalier:

A new page is opening in the war in Yemen. After the first attack last week against Abu Dhabi, the Houthis now claim to have once again targeted the capital of the Emirates as well as Dubai. It's linked to the context on the ground in Yemen where the recently escalated fighting between Emirati-backed militias and Houthis in the country's central Shabwa province has turned in favor of Israel's allies. Abu Dhabi. In response, the Houthis, who have lost territory in the area, are directly attacking the Emirates, which they had already threatened to attack during the first years of the conflict. They didn't because probably they didn't have the capacity, even though in 2019 the Houthis struck right on the border with the Emirates,in the Saudi oil zone of Shaybah. And at the time, the message had been perfectly understood since almost overnight, the Emiratis had announced their desire to withdraw from the conflict.

Since this period, a priori the Emirates had withdrawn from the war because they wanted to secure their territory and better organize the World Expo in Dubai, which is still in progress and on which they have bet a lot to give breathe new life into their economy and attract new investors. The Houthis know they cannot militarily defeat the Emirates, one of the few credible military powers in the Gulf. By striking their territory, they are targeting the development ambitions of this country and the symbols of its economic power. Because in terms of image and potential economic consequences, these attacks can ultimately be disastrous. But the risk for the Houthis, who want Abu Dhabi to withdraw from the conflict,is to see the Emirates commit more on the ground because logic dictates that they react.

How do you explain the sophistication of the arsenal available to the Houthis that allows them to directly threaten Emirati territory

?

They have also recovered the networks of arms traffickers while Yemen has for decades been a regional platform for this type of trafficking.

For example, Fares Manaa, one of the country's most notorious arms traffickers, who was once close to ex-president Ali Abdallah Saleh, is a minister of state in the Houthi government.

But they have above all had an external contribution which has enabled them to cross a technological milestone, the most obvious of which is that of the Islamic Republic of Iran.

A support that turns out to be decisive.

Precisely how is Iranian support for the Houthis manifested

?

Everything points to Tehran, despite Iranian denials and those of the Houthis. Iranians, accused by the UN of not respecting the arms embargo on Yemen, supply their Shia allies with all kinds of weapons, not just projectiles, which slip through the cracks of the blockade net . But Tehran also provides a large number of spare parts, which are more difficult to track down and which do not necessarily fall under UN sanctions. After assembly, these spare parts are largely used to manufacture drones, like those that were used to attack the Emirates and which are, in the Middle East as elsewhere, a factor of complete change in the practice of warfare. The Houthis also benefit from the contribution of Iranian instructors, mainly from the al-Quds Force, theelite unit of the Revolutionary Guards, but also of the Lebanese Hezbollah. It is not known how many of these instructors and the quantities of weapons and missiles that the Houthis have in their possession, but it is known that over the years their arsenal has steadily improved both in quality and in quantity as evidenced by their ability to strike distant territories. Frequently aiming for Saudi territory allowed them to become increasingly accurate and do damage. UN experts have recognized among the missile debris and material that was seized that was either outright Iranian technology or derived from it, or even Chinese military technology, of which Iran is a customer. And perhaps most worrying for Saudis and Emiratis,it is that these projectiles are effective and are not expensive to manufacture, whereas to stop them, Riyadh and Abu Dhabi have to spend fortunes to buy the equipment abroad

The summary of the

France 24 week invites you to come back to the news that marked the week

I subscribe

Take international news everywhere with you!

Download the France 24 app

google-play-badge_EN